Degen Show (11/13/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/13/21
NFL Week 10
Tampa Bay (-9.5) vs. Washington (9.5)
Spread: Bet Tampa Bay
Total: Lean Over 51
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 33 – Washington 19 (52)
Notes: The Bucs are coming off their bye week and looking around to see the carnage from last week. Other than Arizona, the other potential number 1 seeds lost – so now they have an opportunity to head to Washington and beat up on a Football Club that ranks 25th in points per game, 29th in opponent’s points per game and dead last in opponent’s passing yards allowed.
This is setting up to be a big game by Tom Brady.
Washington is also coming off a bye. In their last game, they lost by a TD to Denver. Prior to that, 3 consecutive double-digit losses. I get that taking a road team to cover a double-digit spread is not great and that Tampa has won some close games this year.
But I think they win and cover this one with ease. $50 bet on Tampa Bay.
Cleveland (2.5) vs. New England (-2.5)
Spread: Bet Cleveland
Total: Lean Over 45
Predicted Score: Cleveland 25 – New England 24 (49)
Notes: The Browns and Patriots are both 5-4 and currently in divisions that are winnable. After the Ravens lost on Thursday, the North is wide open – but highly competitive. In the East, Buffalo shit the bed last week – giving the Pats a chance to win there with lesser competition below them.
Running back issues plague this game for sure. Cleveland – the top rushing team in the league – will be without Nick Chubb due to COVID and also without Kareem Hunt due to a calf injury. That means D’Ernest Johnson will get the start. In his last game – against a top 10 rushing defense with Denver – he got 146 yards and a TD.
So maybe Cleveland will be just fine there.
As for the Patriots, Damien Harris is still dealing with a concussion and might not be available to play. That could mean some more action from QB Mac Jones if he can get some quick passes off against a stingy Cleveland pass defense.
I would not be shocked if the Browns get an upset win here but more than likely it will be a heart-breaking, 1-point loss. So a $50 bet on the Browns with the points.
Jacksonville (10) vs. Indianapolis (-10)
Spread: Bet Indianapolis
Total: Lean Under 47.5
Predicted Score: Jacksonville 16 – Indianapolis 30 (46)
Notes: The Jaguars got a shocking win over the Bills last week but let’s temper expectations here. Buffalo played a shitty game. Jacksonville did not play a good one. Now they head to Indianapolis where the Colts last beat the Jets by 15 points.
Indy is 3-2 over their last 5 games and both losses were OT losses to the Ravens and Titans. They feature the current best running back in the game and face a Jacksonville defense that ranks 24th in overall opponent’s yards allowed per game and 27th in opponent’s points allowed per game.
Both of those stats are inflated too since the Bills mustered only 6 points and 301 yards last week.
There are some things to like about Jacksonville. The real Josh Allen is a defensive beast and Trevor Lawrence is starting to settle in to the league. But the Jags should lose this week. They are 0-3 on the road and have lost 12 consecutive road games dating back to last season.
And I don’t see the Colts shitting the bed offensively like the Bills did. So this should be a game that they can cover too. $50 bet on Indianapolis.
Buffalo (-12.5) vs. NY Jets (12.5)
Spread: Bet Buffalo
Total: Lean Over 47.5
Predicted Score: Buffalo 31 – NY Jets 17 (48)
Notes: Speaking of Buffalo, they head to New York with a major chip on their shoulder and the surging Patriots closer in the rearview mirror than they would like. Recency will have betters jumping off the Bills bandwagon because when you lose to the goddamn Jaguars and only muster 6 points, it’s a pretty bad fucking look.
But prior to that, the Bills handled lesser teams like the Dolphins, Texans and Chiefs.
The Jets have 2 wins on the season – both at home and both by 3 points. I do like this team a lot more when Mike White is QBing. But his durability is a major question after being knocked out of consecutive games for two different injuries.
The Bills pass rush is good – not great – but their overall passing defense is tops in the league. So maybe Mike White will have some time to throw but he won’t have room for many errors. I think the Bills can capitalize on the shaky QB situation in New York and bounce back for a big win.
$50 bet on the Bills.
Philadelphia (2.5) vs. Denver (-2.5)
Spread: Bet Denver
Total: Lean Under 45
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 19 – Denver 23 (42)
Notes: I’ve been lukewarm on the Eagles all season. Their metrics indicate they should probably be a better football team than their record shows but a lot of that has to do with the progression of Jalen Hurts. He’s coming off a decent game last week but his performance was not enough to get the win as the Eagles lost a close one to the Chargers.
Now they head to Denver where the Broncos – backed by veteran Teddy Bridgewater – have broke a 4-game losing skid by winning two games in a row. The last game – a blowout win in Dallas – showed that this team does have some talent.
But it all starts with Teddy. He’s the 3rd most accurate passer in the league this season and he’s facing a Philly pass defense that is regressing as the season goes on. Their pass rush is pretty good – and all of their team sacks except for one have come on the road.
But I think Denver pulls out the win this week and covers the stinky line. $50 bet on the Broncos.
Detroit (7.5) vs. Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Spread: Lean Detroit
Total: Lean Under 42.5
Predicted Score: Detroit 16 – Pittsburgh 21 (37)
Atlanta (8) vs. Dallas (-8)
Spread: Lean Dallas
Total: Lean Under 54.5
Predicted Score: Atlanta 22 – Dallas 31 (53)
New Orleans (2.5) vs. Tennessee (-2.5)
Spread: Lean Tennessee
Total: Lean Over 44
Predicted Score: New Orleans 23 – Tennessee 27 (50)
Minnesota (3) vs. LA Chargers (-3)
Spread: Lean Minnesota
Total: Lean Under 52.5
Predicted Score: Minnesota 25 – LA Chargers 25 (50)
Carolina (10.5) vs. Arizona (-10.5)
Spread: Lean Arizona
Total: Lean Over 44.5
Predicted Score: Carolina 18 – Arizona 29 (47)
Seattle (3) vs. Green Bay (-3)
Spread: Lean Green Bay
Total: Lean Under 49.5
Predicted Score: Seattle 21 – Green Bay 25 (46)
Kansas City (-3) vs. Las Vegas (3)
Spread: Lean Las Vegas
Total: Lean Under 52
Predicted Score: Kansas City 25 – Las Vegas 24 (49)
BOS (-2.5) at CLE (2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE ML
Total: 202.5 (Lean Under – 200)
Predicted Score: BOS 100 – CLE 100
WAS (-4) at ORL (4)
Pick: Bet $10 ML WAS
Total: 203.5 (Lean Over – 205)
Predicted Score: WAS 105 – ORL 100
MEM (-2.5) at NOP (2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 NOP ML
Total: 221.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: MEM 106 – NOP 110
MIA (7.5) at UTA (-7.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: MIA 110 – UTA 109
PHI (2.5) at IND (-2.5)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 217.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: PHI 107 – IND 106
DET (8.5) at TOR (-8.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 201.5 (Lean Over – 206)
Predicted Score: DET 101 – TOR 105
MIN (6.5) at LAC (-6.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 221.5 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: MIN 106 – LAC 111
Boston Bruins (-155) at New Jersey Devils (130)
Pick: Bet $10 New Jersey
Florida Panthers (100) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
New York Rangers (-125) at Columbus Blue Jackets (105)
Pick: Bet $10 Columbus
St. Louis Blues (115) at Carolina Hurricanes (-135)
Pick: Bet $10 Carolina
Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) at Ottawa Senators (130)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh
Montreal Canadiens (105) at Detroit Red Wings (-125)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Los Angeles Kings (160) at Winnipeg Jets (-190)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs (-190) at Buffalo Sabres (160)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Arizona Coyotes (220) at Nashville Predators (-280)
Pick: Lean Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers (115) at Dallas Stars (-135)
Pick: Lean Dallas
San Jose Sharks (200) at Colorado Avalanche (-235)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Vancouver Canucks (125) at Vegas Golden Knights (-155)
Pick: Lean Vegas