Degen Show (11/15/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/15/21
Max’s Week 10 Touchdown
Point 1: At Least They Won’t Go 0-17
Let’s start in Pittsburgh where the Big Ben-less Steelers limped to a 16-16 tie with the Lions. Mason Rudolph threw the ball 50 times yesterday which, if you are counting at home, is 50 more attempts than he should be throwing in an NFL game. Still, his performance, with no real notice, was markedly better than Jared Goff who was 14 of 25 for 114 fucking yards.
If this sounds like it was a shitty game, don’t fret, it gets even shittier. Because it went to OT where Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth fumbled the ball with 9 seconds left to essentially destroy the Steelers’ chances of pulling out the win.
The silver lining in this is that the Lions will not go 0-17 this season. But they still could go winless.
Point 2: The Curse of the Degen Rank
Listen, if you thought a KOD was bad, how about ending up #1 in our weekly Degen rank? Tampa was our #1 this past week and they lost to the Washington Football Club. Last week? The Rams were #1. They lost to the Titans.
Week before that? It was Tampa Bay. Who lost to the Saints.
Week before that? It was Arizona who, you guessed it, lost to the Packers soon after.
Week before that? It was the Bills – who lost to the Titans right after.
This is almost as bad as the Madden cover curse at this point. My guess is that heading into next week, bet the farm against the Titans.
Point 3: Speaking of the Titans…
They improved to 8-2 on the season with a close win over the Saints. Yet, it didn’t quite feel like a win. Trevor Siemian outplayed Ryan Tannehill and you get the feeling that if the Saints had Alvin Kamara, they could have pulled out the win.
The Titans have the Texans next week – so they should get to 9-2 before playing a bigtime game against the Patriots in Week 12. After that, it’s the Jaguars (win), Steelers (win), 49ers (win), Dolphins (win), and Texans again (win). So you are looking at a 14-15 win team in the AFC.
Unless we do end up cursing them with a Degen rank, this team is looking good for a first round bye.
Point 4: Bill is Back
Or maybe he never left. Because before Cam got the vid last year, the Patriots were looking like a dangerous team. They ended up crumbling last year but with Kurt Angle at QB – that’s an ankle lock reference for you non-WWE fans – they are shadowing the Bills for the AFC East and even if they don’t catch them, they should still be able to make the playoffs.
The Patriots gave a big middle finger to the 2.5 spread trap by trouncing the Browns 45-7 yesterday. The Browns had to play a good part of the game without Baker Mayfield – who injured his knee in the third quarter. Not sure it would have made a difference as the game was out of hand by that point and Baker was not looking good out there.
I had thought Cleveland could keep it close this week but Bill must have heard the show on Saturday and used it as motivation for a blowout. I mean, that seems like something he’d do to get motivated, right?
Point 5: Cam Do
Cam Newton didn’t play much yesterday in his return to Carolina but on his first play of the season he ran for a TD. His second play? He threw for a TD. Not too bad.
The rumor mill says he will start next week and the rest of the season is an audition for him to replace Sam Darnold next year. But here’s the funny thing.
Cam was let go after 2019 because of concerns over his injuries. So the Panthers signed Teddy Bridgewater who was decent last year. But they traded him to Denver – eating 7 million of his salary to do so. Then they traded for Darnold.
So if Cam ends up starting – they will be playing Cam, Cam’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement. And I thought the Jets’ gm was dumb for trading for Flacco.
Point 6: Speaking of Flacco
He was 3 for 3 with a TD in relief of Mike White yesterday as the Jets got trounced by the Bills. The Buffalo defense feasted on White – forcing 4 interceptions on 44 attempts. So 10% of his throws were interceptions. Not a good day at all.
The Bills beat New York 45-17. Let’s rewind a few weeks. The Patriots beat them 54-13. Last week they lost to the Colts 45-30. The last time that happened? The 1966 Giants.
Robert Saleh, who was defensive coordinator for the 49ers prior this season, is the head coach who can claim this awful notoriety. But he’s still better than Adam Gase.
Extra Point: Riding with Mahome
The Chiefs got a big win on Sunday Night Football – beating the Raiders 41-14. Patrick Mahomes looked like his former self – throwing for 406 yards and 5 TDs. The Raiders’ defensive coordinator apparently watched no footage of other teams’ defenses from this year on how they contained Mahomes.
But maybe Pandora’s box has now been re-opened and this game will give Mahomes more confidence from here on out. Which could be a good thing. Or a bad thing.
His overconfidence seemed to be part of the issue this season as he forced throws that resulted in interceptions. One of his TDs – to Darrell Williams – was just that. Only Williams prevented the INT by making a great catch and scoring a TD.
Whether or not Mahomes is “fixed’ after this game is something we will see in the coming weeks. They play a Dallas defense that can be thrown on – but stopped Matt Ryan yesterday and then a Denver defense that can stop Dallas – but cannot stop Jalen Hurts.
Still, for one night at least, it was nice to see Mahomes having fun out there and playing great football. Unless you bet against him and the Chiefs like my two co-hosts did.
NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football
LA Rams (-3.5) vs. San Francisco (3.5)
Spread: Bet $50 LA Rams
Total: Lean Over
Predicted Score: LA Rams 31 – San Francisco 23 (54)
Notes: The Rams look to shake off a loss to the Titans as they head north to San Francisco to play a 49ers team that is 0-4 at home this season and coming off a home loss to a division rival who was playing with a backup QB last week.
And if Colt McCoy’s performance this week says anything, man the Niners’ defense has some issues this season. Statistically, they’re not terrible – ranking 24th in opponent’s points allowed per game and 10th in opponent’s yards allowed per game. But watching them, it looks like a defense that gives up on plays at times.
No here I’m hoping that Stafford can shake off his bad performance – unlike his predecessor in LA – and come out and exploit that defense. His best hope is to do what’s got him here: play action and throw to Cooper Kupp.
The Niners give up 131 yards per game on the ground so if the Rams can establish the run, getting back to the basics that have won them games this season should be possible.
$50 bet on the Rams.
IND (3) at NYK (-3)
Pick: Bet $10 IND ML
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: IND 109 – NYK 103
Notes: After a hot start, the Knicks have cooled off. And after being a dominant home team last season, they are just 2-4 at home this season. Indy has played some very good basketball as of late and I think there is value in betting them to grab a win today.
$10 ML bet on the Pacers.
MIA (-9) at OKC (9)
Pick: Bet $10 OKC ML
Total: 210.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: MIA 107 – OKC 106
Notes: I have hit on a few bigger dog moneylines this season and OKC has been involved in a couple of them. Recency says that the Thunder cannot hang with elite teams – after getting smoked by the Nets just yesterday – but Miami is only 4-4 on the road this season and this is their 5th straight road game.
The Heat got a nice win this weekend over the Jazz but lost the prior 3 games. This is a winnable game for Miami but I have this being a very close one. So I think there’s value in betting the Thunder.
$10 ML bet on OKC.
NOP (2.5) at WAS (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 WAS ML
Total: 212.5 (Lean Under – 206)
Predicted Score: NOP 97 – WAS 109
Notes: Speaking of dogs who paid me out this season, I hit a nice plus line on the Pelicans on Saturday. Dare I take them again? No. No I do not.
The Wizards have won 4 in a row and in general, this looks to be like a very competitive team this season. They are 5-1 at home and have beat the Bucks and Grizzlies at home the past week. New Orleans is getting healthier and the Wiz will be without Bradley Beal.
But I still like them to win this game. It’s an overreaction with Beal being out and I’ll bet $10 on Washington with the moneyline.
PHX (-4) at MIN (4)
Pick: Bet $10 PHX ML
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: PHX 115 – MIN 101
Notes: The Suns are my most likely team to win today. The T-Wolves are just 2-5 at home this season and those 2 wins were their first two of the season. That means 5 straight home losses and make that 6.
The Suns have won 8 in a row and are resembling that team that made a run to the Championship last season.
$10 ML bet on the Suns.
BOS (-2.5) at CLE (2.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 200 (Lean Under – 194)
Predicted Score: BOS 97 – CLE 97
SAC (-4.5) at DET (4.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 213 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: SAC 109 – DET 104
ORL (10.5) at ATL (-10.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 214 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: ORL 108 – ATL 105
DEN (4.5) at DAL (-4.5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 209.5 (Lean Over – 211)
Predicted Score: DEN 105 – DAL 106
HOU (11) at MEM (-11)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: HOU 107 – MEM 108
TOR (1.5) at POR (-1.5)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 212.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: TOR 105 – POR 107
CHI (1) at LAL (-1)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: CHI 108 – LAL 107
New York Islanders (115) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-135)
Pick: Bet $10 New York
Notes: The Islanders are still on the road and it has not been great for them. They have dropped to the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and have the 3rd least amount of points by any team in the Eastern Conference. They have lost 2 in a row and their defense gave up 9 goals combined in those losses.
But its not like Tampa Bay is running away with things. They are decent at home and their losses have come to better teams in the league. But this is not the same dynamic offense we have previously seen. I know, it sounds like old Max hate on the lucky Lightning, but luck has nothing to do with it this season.
They rank 24th in goals per game and 24th in expected goals for. Which means, this could be their offense.
Still, they more than likely get the win today but I will jump on the plus line with the Islanders. $10 bet on New York.
Detroit Red Wings (110) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-130)
Pick: Lean Detroit