Degen Show (11/16/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/16/21
GSW (2.5) at BKN (-2.5)
Pick: Lean GSW
Total: 220 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: GSW 108 – BKN 109
Notes: Brooklyn has gotten things on track and are 10-4 this season after winning 4 of 5 games. They are 4-2 at home and returning back after a great road trip.
The Warriors are 11-2 on the year after dropping a close one to Charlotte on Sunday. Could this be a two-game losing streak? Possibly. I have it as a very close one for sure.
Lean Golden State.
PHI (9) at UTA (-9)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 218 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: PHI 109 – UTA 108
Notes: The Sixers have lost 4 in a row and the Jazz have lost 4 of 5. Injuries continue to be an issue for the Sixers. Utah just is not playing well and even them at home is not automatic. Lean on the Sixers.
SAS (6.5) at LAC (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $15 LAC ML
Total: 219 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: SAS 105 – LAC 111
Notes: The Clippers were rolling before stumbling against the Bulls on Sunday. They continue their homestand by welcoming in a Spurs team that has lost 3 of 4 games and is 2-5 on the road.
Offensively, these teams are close in offensive efficiency and effective field goal %. Where they differ is that the Clippers rank second in defensive efficiency while San Antonio is 13th. This has led the Clippers to having a +5.2 average scoring margin compared to a +0.1 by San Antonio.
San Antonio also has trouble shooting on the road. Their effective field goal % drops from 55.4% at home to 50.2% on the road.
I like the Clippers here to almost cover this one but I’ll take them for the win. I’ll bet $15 on the Clippers moneyline.
Calgary Flames (-120) at Philadelphia Flyers (100)
Pick: Bet $10 Calgary
Notes: I seem to get burned when I fade the Flyers. So might as well get burned on them again by betting the Flames. Get it? Flames? Burning?
Calgary has not played their best hockey as of late. They had a 3-game losing streak broken by a win over the Senators on Sunday.
The Flames rank 11th in goals scored per game and their expected goals for is in line with that production. Meaning they get good shots on goal and they sink them.
Philly has stayed in games with some very good goaltending. The problem for them is that Calgary has even better goaltending.
I fully expect to lose this one but I cannot resist betting the Flames here. $10 bet on Calgary.
New York Islanders (135) at Florida Panthers (-155)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: Well, my bet on the Islanders fizzled so now, in a back-to-back, heading to Florida to play a Panthers team that is 7-0 at home this season, I’ll do the square sucker play and fade them today.
Florida is riding a 4-game losing streak – all road games – and I expect them to come out strong for a win today. $10 bet on the Panthers.
San Jose Sharks (165) at Minnesota Wild (-195)
Pick: Bet $10 Minnesota
Notes: The Wild have won 4 of 5 games and their lone loss was a close one on the road in Vegas. They are 4-1 at home this season and welcoming in a Sharks team that has looked better than expected this season but has lost 4 of 5 games.
San Jose is not getting good shots on goal and have a higher than average PDO – meaning some of those shots that were dropping in their earlier games are no longer dropping.
It’s a lot of chalk, I know, but papa needs some wins. $10 bet on the Wild.
Carolina Hurricanes (-130) at Vegas Golden Knights (105)
Pick: Bet $10 Carolina
Notes: Carolina is a top 10 team for goals scored. They are 30th in expected goals for and #2 in PDO. So I expect there to be some regression from this team at some point.
But heading into Vegas – where the Golden Knights are riding a 3-game winning streak – I’m hoping the Hurricanes can hold off that regression for at least one more game.
Vegas’ offense has picked up the past two weeks and their goaltending is also getting better. I do think they are on the verge of righting the ship but I just like Carolina’s play right now. So a $10 bet on the Hurricanes.
Colorado Avalanche (-175) at Vancouver Canucks (150)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Ottawa Senators (145) at New Jersey Devils (-165)
Pick: Lean Ottawa
Montreal Canadiens (150) at New York Rangers (-175)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Buffalo Sabres (195) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-245)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh
Nashville Predators (165) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-195)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Arizona Coyotes (250) at St. Louis Blues (-320)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers (-115) at Winnipeg Jets (-105)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Detroit Red Wings (150) at Dallas Stars (-175)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Washington Capitals (-135) at Anaheim Ducks (115)
Pick: Lean Washington