Degen Show (11/17/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/17/21
WAS (2.5) at CHA (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 WAS ML
Total: 214.5 (Lean Under – 206)
Predicted Score: WAS 105 – CHA 101
Notes: The Wizards are one of the surprise teams of the season. They have won 5 in a row and are 10-3 on the season. One of the reasons they are much improved this season is that their defense is not absolute shit like it was last season.
Charlotte is an up and coming team and have looked impressive in their 3-game win streak. They beat the unbeatable Warriors, the Knicks and the Grizzles. But their win streak probably ends here.
$10 moneyline bet on Washington.
HOU (3.5) at OKC (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 OKC ML
Total: 211.5 (Lean Over – 212)
Predicted Score: HOU 104 – OKC 108
Notes: The Rockets have lost 12 in a row and their blowout loss to the Grizzles on Monday made their blowout loss to the Suns on Sunday look mild. Statistically, these two teams are not too far off when it comes to shooting and offensive efficiency.
Its OKC’s defense that sets them apart.
This is a team that plays some very good team defense and limits the easy shots. They don’t defend the 3 particularly well but Houston ranks 27th in the league in 3 point % so it should not be an issue tonight.
I’ll bet $10 on the OKC moneyline here.
SAC (2) at MIN (-2)
Pick: Bet $10 SAC ML
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: SAC 113 – MIN 107
Notes: I hate putting my faith in the Sacramento Kings but alas, I am putting my faith in the Sacramento Kings. The T-Wolves have lost 6 straight home games and other than an upset win over a Lakers team that’s in disarray, this Minnesota team has not played good basketball lately.
They are one of the worst shooting teams in the league and are middle of the pack when it comes to defensive efficiency. When they play good shooting teams – their defense starts to crumble.
Sacramento ranks 8th in effective field goal % this season and 13th in 3 point field goal %.
Minnesota shoots a lot of 3’s and does hit a fair amount per game. But if their 3’s are not sinking, they get blown out. I think Sacramento will set the tone today with shooting and the T-Wolves will struggle to keep up.
$10 moneyline bet on the Kings.
CLE (10.5) at BKN (-10.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 206.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: CLE 108 – BKN 105
Notes: Was going to bet Cleveland but Panther saved me in the pre-show by alerting me to injuries.
ORL (11.5) at NYK (-11.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: ORL 104 – NYK 110
BOS (4) at ATL (-4)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 214 (Lean Under – 207)
Predicted Score: BOS 105 – ATL 102
IND (-6.5) at DET (6.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 211.5 (Lean Under – 205)
Predicted Score: IND 106 – DET 99
NOP (8.5) at MIA (-8.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 209)
Predicted Score: NOP 102 – MIA 107
LAL (7.5) at MIL (-7.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: LAL 105 – MIL 106
DAL (7.5) at PHX (-7.5)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: DAL 109 – PHX 113
CHI (1.5) at POR (-1.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: CHI 105 – POR 106
Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Vancouver Canucks (135)
Pick: Bet $10 Colorado
Notes: Colorado has won two games in a row but still have a long ways to go before we can put them in the top tier of the NHL. Their offense is still mighty – averaging 3.5 goals per game. That ranks 5th in the NHL.
Their expected goals for ranks 30th in the league – which indicates the offense should regress some as unlucky shots stop falling for them.
On the flip side, their defense should improve from what it currently is. Based on the expected goals against, their goal differential on the season should be better by about 6 goals.
Vancouver has lost 4 games in a row and part of that is their goaltending is giving up 3.38 goals per game. And based on their advanced metrics, it should be even worse.
The Avalanche aren’t clicking on all cylinders yet and have been shaky on the road – but I like them to put up some goals tonight. $10 bet on Colorado.
Chicago Blackhawks (120) at Seattle Kraken (-140)
Pick: Lean Seattle
Washington Capitals (-130) at Los Angeles Kings (110)
Pick: Lean Washington