Degen Show (11/2/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/2/21
ATL (115) at HOU (-124)
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 3.38 – Road ERA: 3.67 – Avg. ML: -119) vs. L. Garcia (ERA: 3.78 – Home ERA: 2.75 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: Going into this series, we all thought this would be a 6 or 7 game series and after Houston avoided elimination in game 5, we were proven correct and now have some November baseball. The Braves are set to start Max Fried – who has given up 11 runs over his past 2 postseason starts – to face off against Luis Garcia – who has bounced back his last two games after a shaky start to his postseason.
Based on recency, the Astros have the starting pitching edge. Barely. And in fact, everything in this series is a barely edge.
Team ERA in this series? 3.68 to 3.77. Barely edge to Atlanta.
Team WHIP? 1.30 to 1.32. Barely edge to Houston.
Batting average? .246 to .231. A little more than a barely edge to Atlanta.
Runs scored? 20 to 18. Barely edge to Houston.
Which should mean we should take the dog here since there is value. I just can’t do it. This thing is going 7 games. Maybe Atlanta wins it then. I just can’t see them winning it tonight.
$10 bet on the Astros.
NOP (11) at PHX (-11)
Pick: Bet $10 NOP
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: NOP 105 – PHX 106
Notes: The Suns are not off to a great start to their season. After making it to the Finals last year, many expected them to continue that momentum. It’s just not happening. Through 5 games, they have not really found a rhythm and their effective field goal % is quite low.
The Pelicans have also had some issues to start the season. As in, they are dreadful. After firing Stan Van Gundy in the offseason the expectation was for the team to take it to the next level. It looks like they took it down to a lesser level.
Yet, despite the 1-6 record, they are keeping their games close. And I think they can do that today as well.
$10 bet on New Orleans.
MIL (-4.5) at DET (4.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: MIL 106 – DET 107
MIA (-1.5) at DAL (1.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 214.5 (Lean Under – 208)
Predicted Score: MIA 107 – DAL 101
SAC (9) at UTA (-9)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 220 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: SAC 104 – UTA 112
HOU (10.5) at LAL (-10.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 217 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: HOU 105 – LAL 111
New Jersey Devils (-118) at Anaheim Ducks (107)
Pick: Bet $10 New Jersey
Notes: You know what, early in this season and I can say it. The Devils don’t suck. They aren’t quite good, but they actually don’t suck. They are coming off an OT loss to the Blue Jackets but before that they got wins against the Penguins and the surprisingly good Sabres.
New Jersey has had a tough schedule to start the year yet they have managed to hang in there.
For Anaheim, I guess I can say the same. They aren’t anywhere close to a good team but they aren’t Arizona Coyotes bad at least.
So in this battle of “don’t actually suck teams” I’ll give the edge to the Devils and bet $10 on them.
Detroit Red Wings (119) at Montreal Canadiens (-132)
Pick: Bet $10 Detroit
Notes: This is an odd one here. The money is coming in on Montreal yet the line has gotten a lot better for them. Early in the season, that’s been a clear sign that something is up and the sportsbooks are baiting us. I just don’t know what they are baiting us into.
Montreal is a shell of its former self. It was a manifestation of hot goaltending and circumstances of facing off against Canadian teams in their playoff run. But this season has fallen of a cliff.
As for Detroit, they also fall into the “they don’t suck” category. We saw glimmers from them last season – particularly at home – but now they have a few road wins early on and are looking like a team that can make us some money this year with plus lines.
This is one of them I think. $10 bet on the Red Wings.
Vegas Golden Knights (153) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Arizona Coyotes (191) at Philadelphia Flyers (-216)
Pick: Lean Arizona
Dallas Stars (110) at Winnipeg Jets (-122)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Ottawa Senators (185) at Minnesota Wild (-220)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Nashville Predators (130) at Calgary Flames (-144)
Pick: Lean Nashville
New York Rangers (-113) at Vancouver Canucks (102)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Notes: Looks a little trappish.
Buffalo Sabres (127) at San Jose Sharks (-141)
Pick: Lean San Jose