Degen Show (11/22/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/22/21
Max’s Week 11 Touchdown
Point 1: The Curse Continues
Add the Dallas Cowboys to the latest victim of the Degen Rank curse. It really has turned into the super KOD. Since doing this rank, every team we put #1 has lost the following week. Looking ahead to this week’s rank, I’m not sure if anyone is worthy of the #1.
Well, except maybe the Patriots. Which brings me to …
Point 2: The First Place Team in the AFC East
Nope, its not the Bills who got decimated by the Colts yesterday. It’s the Patriots. That’s right, the Colts, backed by Jonathan Taylor’s 5 TDs and 185 yards rushing, took it to Buffalo and beat them 41-15. And with the Dolphins winners of 3 in a row after taking care of the hapless Jets, the Bills now need to worry about ending 3rd in the AFC East.
Point 3: Some Close Games
The Ravens, with Tyler Huntley at QB, beat the Bears 16-13.
The Lions lost another close one falling behind 13-0 at the half and marching back to only lose 13-10. In that one, they may have found a QB that makes Jared Goff look great as backup Tim Boyle threw for 77 yards with 2 INTs and no TDs.
And in one of the more fun games on the day, the Vikings kicked a game winning field goal as time expired to win 34-31 over their division rivals. It was a hell of a game with the Packers finally playing some offense but forgetting how to play defense.
A possible game-ending interception was correctly ruled incomplete and Kirk and squad marched up the field to get their shaky kicker in position to win the game. With the win, the Vikings got back into the playoff picture in the NFC.
As if it wasn’t already muddy as shit.
Point 4: Some Not So Close Games
We thought that the Jags might be able to keep it close with the Niners this week. Nope. They could not. They lost by 20.
Surely the Raiders could keep it close to the Bengals. Nope. They lost 32-13 and looked like bitches in front of their home crowd.
I already mentioned the Colts ass whooping the Bills. But it’s worth mentioning again. Because it was the worst AFC loss of the day. Until…
Point 5: Remember the Titans?
OK, so the Cardinals beat the Titans. But the Packers beat the Cardinals. Then the Chiefs beat the Packers. But the Chargers beat the Chiefs. The Chargers lost Cowboys. But the Bucs beat the Cowboys. And the Rams beat the Bucs. Then the Titans beat the Rams. And the Titans lost to the Texans.
So your best team in football is … I don’t fucking know. I guess Tennessee was indeed looking ahead to the Patriots next week as Ryan Tannehill threw 4 INTs, got sacked twice and hit an additional 6 times.
11 weeks in and we know absolutely nothing.
Point 6: Don’t Carroll
Pete Carroll looks done out there. After losing – again – despite being at home and with his QB back, Carroll looked depressed in his post-game presser and even left early before returning after a short period of time.
The weird scene played out like Pacino in Any Given Sunday – only in that, Coach D’Amato seemed to care about losing. Pete’s response? “I’m not good at dealing with losing. I don’t want to get good at it.”
Awesome. I feel real confident in the Seahawks moving forward. And you seem like the man to help them get out of this funk.
Extra Point: Superman Returns
The Carolina Panthers may have lost to the Football Club 27-21 yesterday but man was it good to see Cam Newton back in action. Cam threw for 189 yards with 2 TDs and no INTs. He also ran for 46 yards and a TD.
Again, the result was a loss but I think it was still a win for Cam and for the Panthers fans. They never should have given up on him a few years back. I do remember contract being an issue and he was banged up.
But things did not turn out well for the Panthers after letting him go. Here’s hoping this ends up being a good ending for both.
NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football
NY Giants (11) vs. Tampa Bay (-11)
Spread: Bet $50 Tampa Bay
Total: Bet $50 Over 50
Predicted Score: NY Giants 20 – Tampa Bay 33 (53)
Notes: Tampa Bay has lost two in a row and will be in a sour mood tonight as they host Monday Night Football. Brady hates losing and after the last game’s press conference – I thought he might be ready to break his TB12 diet and gorge himself like White Goodman in Dodgeball.
I remember after that last loss that I said I felt bad for who the Bucs played next. Enter the Giants.
The status of Giants’ head coach Joe Judge and GM Dave Gettleman is uncertain. New York is 3-6 on the season and while they are coming off a win over the Raiders, after yesterday’s loss by Las Vegas, that was probably more on the Raiders losing than the Giants winning.
The Giants don’t really do anything well. They are not terrible but being 25th in rushing yards per game, 14th in passing yards per game, and 26th in opponent’s yards allowed per game won’t help you win many football games.
I think Tampa smokes them tonight and does so in high-scoring fashion. $50 on the Bucs and $50 on the over.
IND (4.5) at CHI (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CHI ML
Total: 209 (Lean Under – 209)
Predicted Score: IND 102 – CHI 107
Notes: I am not a fan of betting a team playing in a back-to-back since in today’s NBA, you don’t know how coaches will manage sitting players. I have not seen any indication yet that the Bulls plan to sit or reduce minutes of their starters – but it’s always something I try to avoid.
I just can’t today. I like how the Bulls are playing basketball. They took it to the Knicks yesterday and DeRozan continues to be a beast – much like he was years ago in Toronto. This setup has worked well for him while allowing Lavine to also grow without the pressure of having to score 30 a game.
The Pacers are just 2-9 on the road this season and their road effective field goal % is almost 4% worse than their home shooting. That should balance out the fact that the Bulls shoot worse at home than on the road.
$10 moneyline bet on the Bulls.
PHX (-6.5) at SAS (6.5)
Pick: Bet $15 PHX ML
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: PHX 114 – SAS 105
Notes: As I said, I am loathe to bet on a team that just played the day before but since I have done it once, I will do it twice. Two negatives equal a positive, right?
The Suns smoked the Joker-less Nuggets yesterday giving them a 12-game winning streak. The Spurs are riding a 4-game losing streak and I wish I could say things will be better now that they are back home. But they are only 2-4 at the AT&T Center this year.
I think that will be 2-5 after today.
$15 moneyline bet on the Suns.
BKN (-7.5) at CLE (7.5)
Pick: Lean Cleveland
Total: 207.5 (Lean Under – 204)
Predicted Score: BKN 104 – CLE 100
CHA (4) at WAS (-4)
Pick: Lean Charlotte
Total: 216 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: CHA 105 – WAS 107
HOU (12.5) at BOS (-12.5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 211.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: HOU 100 – BOS 113
OKC (10.5) at ATL (-10.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: OKC 103 – ATL 109
ORL (12.5) at MIL (-12.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: ORL 105 – MIL 110
MIN (-2.5) at NOP (2.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: MIN 107 – NOP 106
MEM (9.5) at UTA (-9.5)
Pick: Lean UTA
Total: 222.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: MEM 103 – UTA 116
PHI (2) at SAC (-2)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: PHI 107 – SAC 106
Columbus Blue Jackets (-115) at Buffalo Sabres (-105)
Pick: Bet $10 Columbus
Notes: The Blue Jackets lost a close one on Saturday to the Golden Knights and look to take advantage of a Sabres team playing on a back-to-back. Buffalo managed to score 4 goals yesterday but the problem is their opponent scored 5.
The Sabres had some early season success but that shine has worn off a bit and they find themselves dropping in the Atlantic Division. Columbus can score some goals and while their actual goal scored is a bit higher than their expected goals for, I don’t foresee a huge drop-off in production.
$10 bet on the Blue Jackets.
Carolina Hurricanes (-150) at San Jose Sharks (130)
Pick: Bet $10 Carolina
Notes: Carolina has won 4 in a row and there’s a little bit of apprehension betting them here because it is their 4th road game in a row. But San Jose is not playing very good hockey right now and I’m not sure them a full strength could be a tired Hurricanes team.
San Jose is coming off a shutout loss on Saturday that saw the Capitals dominate every aspect of that game. I can see the Hurricanes doing much of the same tonight. Compared to San Jose, Carolina averages almost more than a goal scored per game and same on goals against.
$10 bet on the Hurricanes.
Anaheim Ducks (135) at Nashville Predators (-155)
Pick: Bet $10 Anaheim
Notes: The Ducks lost a close one to Carolina 4 days ago. That was the last time they played. Prior to that, they were on a crazy win streak. The funny thing is they might be underperforming offensively.
Anaheim is scoring 3.39 goals per game – good for 6th in the NHL. Their advanced metrics say that should be closer to 3.95. They are getting some excellent shots on goal and while I know Nashville has been a pretty good home team – and this line looks trappish – I just cannot resist.
$10 bet on Anaheim.
Vegas Golden Knights (135) at St. Louis Blues (-155)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins (100) at Winnipeg Jets (-120)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators (265) at Colorado Avalanche (-330)
Pick: Lean Colorado