Degen Show (11/27/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/27/21
NFL Week 12
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. NY Giants (3.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Philadelphia
Total: Lean Over 45.5
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 29 – NY Giants 20 (49)
Notes: Division rivalry games are always a crapshoot to bet. And this week, he have a few of them. But this Philly / Giants game is one of the more bettable games for a few reasons.
For 1, the Eagles are on the road. Philly finally got a home win last week but 4 of their 5 wins this season have come on the road where 28.3 points per game – which is a field goal more than they do at home.
Next, the Eagles’ offense is starting to really click behind Jalen Hurts and they should do some damage against a Giants’ defense that ranks 25th against the pass this season.
And then there’s the Giants offensive woes that saw sacrificial lamb Jason Garrett fired this past week. You get the feeling that the remainder of this season will be used to assess Daniel Jones and prepare for the next inevitable rebuild for this organization.
Still, the Giants don’t want to look like bitches in front of their home crowd. So they will be trying in this game. I just don’t think it matters.
$50 bet on the Eagles.
Pittsburgh (3.5) vs. Cincinnati (-3.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Cincinnati
Total: Lean Over 45
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 21 – Cincinnati 26 (47)
Notes: And now on to another division rivalry. Or division match-up. I don’t think Steelers / Bengals has the rich rivalry history as the Steelers and Browns do. But the other Ohio team is coming off a decisive win over the Raiders last week in a game where the running game took the lead and never looked back.
Joe Mixon is poised to have another big game against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 27th against the rush.
Pittsburgh has had an up and down season and currently they are on an ebb as they come off a loss to the Chargers and then before that, a fucking tie against the Lions. At 5-4-1 they are still in the AFC North race, but you just have to like the overall talent the Bengals have right now compared to the Steelers.
And I think that will be the difference this week. I hate that hook but of course the Books throw hooks into division games. But the Bengals are at home and should get a good win.
$50 bet on Cincinnati.
Minnesota (3) vs. San Francisco (-3)
Spread: Bet $50 Minnesota
Total: Lean Under 49
Predicted Score: Minnesota 25 – San Francisco 24 (49)
Notes: Panther has been talking a lot about the Vikings and you have to wonder if its due to his special relationship with a former Minnesotan. That’s right – F. Scott Fizgerald. You might not know it but Panther is a huge fan of The Great Gatsby.
So in honor of Panther today and his love for all things Minnesota – absurdly cold weather, large chested women and Jesse “The Body Ventura” – I’m going to bet his new favorite team, the Vikings.
Yeah, out of everyone who does the podcast with us, Panther is the biggest fanboy of this Vikings team. He has had it out for their head coach all season – but despite that, he’s been Team Kirk all the way.
Now they head to San Francisco to take on a 49ers team that are riding a 2-game winning streak. After beating the Rams a few weeks back, they followed it up with a 20 point win over the Jaguars.
But that Rams win was their lone home win on the season and Jimmy G. and crew average only 23 points per game at home this season – which is 3 points less per game than they average on the road. Maybe if they close their eyes, they can feel the stinging cold of a November day in Minnesota and pretend this is a road game.
If not, then I think the Vikings pull this game out.
$50 bet on Minnesota.
Tampa Bay (-3) vs. Indianapolis (3)
Spread: Bet $50 Indianapolis
Total: Lean Over 53
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 29 – Indianapolis 27 (56)
Notes: The Brady Bunch will head to Indianapolis where Tom Brady has had a storied career. Of beating Peyton Manning.
But it’s a new team for Tom and Manning has long since retired – fading away into obscurity where no one talks about him or his brother. In place of Manning in Indianapolis they have Andrew Luck.
No, wait. They have Jacoby Brissett.
Fuck, that’s not right. Is it Phillip Rivers? No, that would be absurd. No way that Rivers would ever replace a Manning on a team.
It’s Carson Wentz leading the way in Indy! But Wentz only really needs to play the role of Alex Smith in this offense as Jonathan Taylor has led the way to the Colts’ 6 wins this year.
Now I know there was some questioning of my ranking the Colts so high in the Degen rank this past week. They have beaten Miami, Houston, San Francisco, the Jets, Jaguars and Bills.
But their losses include a close one against the Rams, a close one against the Ravens and a close one against the Titans.
So the Bucs must have slayed some giants this year, right? Well, yes. They beat the Giants, the Falcons, the Bears, the Dolphins and the Eagles. Their big wins? A 2 point win over Dallas in week 1 and a 2 point win over the Patriots in week 4.
Tampa Bay is the better team here. I think. And the Bucs should be able to limit Taylor this week. But perhaps then Wentz can move the ball and the homefield advantage is what makes the difference.
$50 bet on the Colts.
Tennessee (7) vs. New England (-7)
Spread: Bet $50 Tennessee
Total: Lean Over 43.5
Predicted Score: Tennessee 26 – New England 26 (52)
Notes: If it weren’t for a little game between the Rams and Packers, this would be the game I wanted to watch the most. Tennessee looks to recover from a shocking loss to the Texans from last week. Standing in their way is a New England team, at home, and riding a 5-game winning streak.
The Patriots have really found their rhythm this season and the offense has thrived with the steadiness of the ankle biter Mac Jones. He gets the big third down conversions and keeps defenses on the field.
New England ranks 10th in time of possession this season but that has gotten better the past month. The Titans have gotten almost 3 minutes worse since Derek Henry went down with his injury. If the Pats can control the clock, they should win this game.
But despite all of that. And despite the injuries the Titans are dealing with. The 7 points is just too much for me to handle here. We keep waiting for the Books to dupe the public on the Pats. It could be this week.
$50 bet on the Titans.
Atlanta (-2) vs. Jacksonville (2)
Spread: Lean Atlanta
Total: Lean Under 46.5
Predicted Score: Atlanta 20 – Jacksonville 17 (37)
NY Jets (2.5) vs. Houston (-2.5)
Spread: Lean NY Jets
Total: Lean Under 44.5
Predicted Score: NY Jets 19 – Houston 16 (35)
Carolina (-2) vs. Miami (2)
Spread: Lean Carolina
Total: Lean Under 42
Predicted Score: Carolina 21 – Miami 17 (38)
LA Chargers (-2.5) vs. Denver (2.5)
Spread: Lean LA Chargers
Total: Lean Under 48
Predicted Score: LA Chargers 25 – Denver 21 (46)
LA Rams (-1.5) vs. Green Bay (1.5)
Spread: Lean LA Rams
Total: Lean Over 47
Predicted Score: LA Rams 25 – Green Bay 23 (48)
Cleveland (3.5) vs. Baltimore (-3.5)
Spread: Lean Cleveland
Total: Lean Under 47
Predicted Score: Cleveland 20 – Baltimore 23 (43)