Degen Show (11/29/21)

Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 11/29/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA totals show, NHL win totals episode, or NFL win totals one too.

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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/29/21

Max’s Week 12 Touchdown

Sports Bet Picks for 11/29/21

Point 1: Best Team in Football

The jumbled mess of mediocrity that is the NFL right now is crying out for an alpha to take the lead. Maybe the Chiefs are close. And Tampa sure could regain their throne. But right now, the best team in football is the New England Patriots.

The Pats have the best point differential in the league and are currently the top seed in the AFC. Mac Jones is coming off a great start and the New England defense just made the Titans look like absolute bitches.

Now granted, the Titans are injured right now and this was a home game at Foxborough. But its hard not to love how the Pats are playing right now. Sorry NFL, but they are back

Point 2: It Hurts So Much

Yeah, Jalen Hurts shit the bed this week as the Eagles lost to their division rivals 13-7 yesterday. The Giants’ offense wasn’t amazing with a new OC – but Daniel Jones’ 202 yard and 1 TD performance was markedly better than Hurts’ 129 yards and 3 INT performance.

Jalen did chip in 77 yards on the ground as the Eagles’ rushing game surpassed 200 yards on the day. But the turnovers and piss-poor decision making by Hurts cost them big.

Jalen had been making lots of great progress. I hope he learns from this one and avoids similar stupid shit in the future.

Point 3: Speaking of Stupid Shit

The Jets beat the Texans 21-14 and the Falcons beat the Jaguars 21-14. That puts the Texans with 2 wins, the Jags with 2 wins and the Jets with 3. The Lions still have the inside path to the #1 pick and whatever mediocre college QB will await them as these 3 shitty teams continue to duke it out for a top pick.

Zach Wilson still did not look like a star QB out there for the Jets while Trevor Lawrence continues to look decent enough – but nowhere near as good a #1 QB picked in the draft.

Point 4: The Death of Superman

You can hear Arch and Maxy talk about Batman v. Superman on the Sunday podcast, but the Superman I am talking about is Cam Newton. After things looked optimistic for Cam and the Panthers the past few weeks, bizzarro Cam showed up to ruin everything.

The Dolphins dominated the Panthers 33-10 as Cam was eventually benched after tossing 92 yards with no TDs and 2 INTs.

The remainder of the season was supposed to be an audition for Cam to see if he would sign a longer contract with the Panthers. Well, I would not get everything unpacked in Carolina just yet there, Cam.

Point 5: The Mess in the Wests

The NFC West appears to have a clear leader with the Arizona Cardinals leading with a 9-2 record. But the Rams are 7-4 and after another win yesterday, the Niners are 6-5 and in a playoff position as of now.

The only team out of it are the Seahawks and the rumor that dropped over the weekend was that Russell Wilson could be dealt to the Giants in the offseason. So let’s see if he’s bubble wrapped from here on out.

In the AFC West, things are even murkier. The Chiefs were on a bye this week and they sit at 7-4. Behind them are the 6-5 Chargers/Broncos/Raiders. The Chargers chargered it up all over Mile High yesterday and of course the Raiders handled their business on Thanksgiving.

With 6 games left and mostly divisional games, things could get even messier in both West divisions.

Point 6: Brown Out

The Browns aren’t technically out of it but losing to the Ravens yesterday and not capitalizing on a terrible game by Lamar Jackson is not a good indication that they can make the playoffs in the AFC.

Through 11 games, there are about 13 teams vying for 6 spots. The Browns sit at 12th right now and the team behind them – Miami – is arguably playing much better football lately. So looks like the Browns’ playoff streak likely ends at 1.

And let’s not dismiss the concerns over Baltimore here. Sure, they won. But Lamar has now thrown 7 INTs over his last 3 games. He threw 9 total INTs all last season and only 6 the previous year. Much like Mahomes, it seems like teams have developed gameplans to slow down Lamar.

And if the Ravens want to make a run this year, they need to change their playbook a bit to prevent Lamar from taking too many risks in the air.

Extra Point: Time to Pack it In

Well, shit. The Packers beat the Rams. It was inevitable since I have been non-stop shit-talking Green Bay for the 3 years I have done this podcast.

But what’s worse is that the Rams look done for. Now, a bit of that is hyperbole, but a bit of that is cold reality. If they don’t get their shit together soon, they are fucked.

For one, offensive lines are OK with doubling or tripling Aaron Donald and making the rest of the Rams’ defense get to the QB. Problem is, they aren’t.

And Matt Stafford looks out of it right now. Physically, yeah, his back is banged up. But mentally this looks like a dude playing with pressure to win for the first time in his career. And he’s not doing well with it.

The Rams have the Jaguars at home next week. But their backend schedule is not a cakewalk. So this team better figure things out soon.

 

NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football

 

Sports Bet Picks for 11/29/21

Seattle (-1) vs. Washington (1)

Spread: Bet $50 Washington

Total: Lean Under

Predicted Score: Seattle 19 – Washington 25 (44)

Notes: The Seahawks are in a bit of disarray. The futures of both their head coach and starting QB are in question. They sit at 3-7 and right now and only the fucking Lions are worse than them.

Ahead of them are the 4-6 Football Club – a team that has won 2 games in a row after shocking the Bucs and then following it up with a strong win over Carolina last week.

Taylor Heinicke has performed well in both of those wins and Antonio Gibson has produced as of late as well. But most importantly, their defense, which was a laughing stock most of the season, has been one of the better ones the past month or so.

Seattle really does not have much going for them right now. I will say this – the public is on Washington while the money is hammering Seattle. The money was 6-8 this week and when their was a huge difference in public and money, they were 1-3.

I’m jumping on with the public on this one. $50 bet on Washington.

 

NBA

Sports Bet Picks for 11/29/21

DEN (7.5) at MIA (-7.5)

Pick: Bet $15 MIA ML

Total: 207.5 (Lean Over – 212)

Predicted Score: DEN 100 – MIA 112

Notes: Denver has been beset with the injury bug this season. Their star player and reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, is listed as questionable with a wrist injury. They of course have been without Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

Without those 3, I just don’t give them much of a chance of beating a Miami team that is 6-1 at home this season and is the 6th best home shooting team in the league.

It’s a chalky one so I need to up my bet here. $15 moneyline bet on the Heat.

 

CHA (5.5) at CHI (-5.5)

Pick: Bet $10 CHA ML

Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 218)

Predicted Score: CHA 110 – CHI 108

Notes: Two teams that look to make big leaps this season. Charlotte is coming off an OT loss to the Rockets two days ago while the Bulls look to rebound from a close loss to the Heat.

The Bulls, on paper, appear to be the better team but if you look at the metrics: Charlotte is 7th in offensive efficiency to the Bulls’ 12th, Charlotte is 10th in effective FG% compared to the Bulls’ 12th and Charlotte leads the league in points per game.

Where the main difference is found is on the defensive side of the ball – where Charlotte bleeds points and the Bulls are top 10 in every defensive metric.

So if this becomes a shooting fest – Charlotte could win. And that’s what I am hoping for. $10 moneyline bet on the Hornets.

 

POR (7.5) at UTA (-7.5)

Pick: Bet $15 UTA ML

Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 223)

Predicted Score: POR 106 – UTA 117

Notes: The Blazers really wish they were home. This is their 3rd road game in a row and they are 1-9 away from the Moda Center this season. They head to Utah where the Jazz used to be unbeatable but are just 7-4 on the year.

One of those losses came last week in a shocking loss to the Pelicans. They promptly rebounded by thrashing the Pelicans a day later. But that uncertainty would give me pause about betting the spread in this one.

But I like the moneyline. Much like my first bet, I need to put up some more cash to make it worth it. $15 moneyline bet on the Jazz.

 

Leans

ORL (15.5) at PHI (-15.5)

Pick: Lean Orlando

Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 222)

Predicted Score: ORL 109 – PHI 113

 

OKC (2.5) at HOU (-2.5)

Pick: Lean OKC

Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 218)

Predicted Score: OKC 109 – HOU 109

 

IND (4.5) at MIN (-4.5)

Pick: Lean MIN

Total: 217.5 (Lean Under – 208)

Predicted Score: IND 101 – MIN 107

 

CLE (5.5) at DAL (-5.5)

Pick: Lean CLE

Total: 207.5 (Lean Under – 213)

Predicted Score: CLE 105 – DAL 108

 

WAS (-3.5) at SAS (3.5)

Pick: Lean SAS

Total: 214.5 (Lean Under – 211)

Predicted Score: WAS 106 – SAS 105

 

NOP (8.5) at LAC (-8.5)

Pick: Lean NOP

Total: 210.5 (Lean Under – 203)

Predicted Score: NOP 100 – LAC 103

 

NHL

Sports Bet Picks for 11/29/21

Vancouver Canucks (105) at Montreal Canadiens (-125)

Pick: Bet $10 Vancouver

Notes: The Canucks have lost 4 games in a row and this is their 4th road game in a row. They are playing in a back-to-back and playing a Canadiens’ team that is coming off a big win over the Penguins on Saturday.

Which makes the Canucks a value play here.

These two teams are close when it comes to goals scored per game but Vancouver has a distinctive goaltending advantage with Carey Price still out for the Canadiens. And based on advanced metrics, the Canadiens’ goaltending should be even worse.

There’s not much to bet on in the NHL today but grabbing a plus line on an essentially 50/50 game is what I will do. $10 bet on the Canucks.

 

Leans

Seattle Kraken (-140) at Buffalo Sabres (120)

Pick: Lean Seattle

 

Arizona Coyotes (240) at Winnipeg Jets (-300)

Pick: Lean Winnipeg

 

Pittsburgh Penguins (120) at Calgary Flames (-140)

Pick: Lean Calgary

About the Author

Mad Max is a gentle soul who enjoys drinking gin, grooming his beard and betting on sports.

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