Degen Show (11/30/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/30/21
NYK (6.5) at BKN (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $10 NYK ML
Total: 216 (Lean Under – 210)
Predicted Score: NYK 105 – BKN 105
Notes: The Knicks just benched the struggling Kemba Walker in a move that actually makes the Celtics seem like they knew what they are doing.
The Knicks have managed to win 3 of 5 despite his struggles and at 6-3 on the year, they aren’t too bad of a road team.
Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the red hot Suns and while its hard to fathom them losing two in a row, I think the value is betting the Knicks moneyline here. T
he Nets are dealing with an injury to Joe Harris and some offensive struggles by James Harden and Blake Griffin.
Now granted, Kevin Durant is usually good enough on a night to night basis to win games on his own. But if the Knicks play their best game and all things are clicking, I think they have a chance to win this one.
$10 moneyline bet on the Knicks.
GSW (2.5) at PHX (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 GSW ML
Total: 221 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: GSW 106 – PHX 105
Notes: The game of the night right here. The Suns aim to win their 17th game in a row and the Warriors aim to win their 8th in a row. First place in the Pacific is at stake as Steph Curry and crew head to Phoenix tonight in their toughest game in awhile.
Phoenix returns home after a successful 4-game road trip that saw them beat the Nets to close it out.
These teams matchup fairly well. Golden State is 2nd in offensive efficiency and Phoenix is 5th. Golden State us 1st in effective field goal percentage and Phoenix is 3rd.
Golden State is 1st in defensive efficiency and Phoenix is 3rd.
So with that all said, yeah, the value is on the Warriors here. $10 moneyline on Golden State.
MEM (5.5) at TOR (-5.5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: MEM 111 – TOR 112
LAL (-4) at SAC (4)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 227 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: LAL 114 – SAC 112
DET (9.5) at POR (-9.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 218)
Predicted Score: DET 105 – POR 113
Washington Capitals (120) at Florida Panthers (-140)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: The Panthers have lost 2 games in a row and had their first loss of the season in a shocking loss to the Seattle Kraken. A team that has won 4 of 5 games including wins over the Panthers, Hurricanes and Capitals (cough).
But now Florida welcomes the Capitals into town as they try to avoid getting their second home loss of the season. These two teams faced off last week in Washington with the Caps edging out a 4-3 win.
Both of these teams rank top 5 in goals for and goals against per game. Based on expected goals for, the Panthers are underperforming based on their shot quality.
Florida also leads the league in puck control – which essentially the equivalent to time of possession.
I can’t argue with someone taking Washington as a value play here but I have the Panthers winning and covering the implied probability here.
$10 bet on Florida.
Anaheim Ducks (110) at Los Angeles Kings (-130)
Pick: Bet $10 Anaheim
Notes: Anaheim’s 8-game winning streak seems so long ago. Since then, they have lost 4 of 5 games. In similar fashion, the Kings won 7 in a row around the same time and have lost 5 of 6 games.
The lone win was a 4-2 win over the Senators 3 days ago.
Statistically, the Ducks have the advantage offensively and are only slightly worse goaltending wise. Plus the Ducks get very good shot selection – ranking 8th in expected goals for.
The problem is that they are one of the more penalized teams in the league and they don’t control the puck for much of the game.
Still, I like the value of the plus line for Anaheim here.
$10 bet on the Ducks.
San Jose Sharks (120) at New Jersey Devils (-140)
Pick: Lean New Jersey
Detroit Red Wings (185) at Boston Bruins (-225)
Pick: Lean Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) at St. Louis Blues (-110)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes (275) at Minnesota Wild (-350)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Columbus Blue Jackets (135) at Nashville Predators (-155)
Pick: Lean Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes (-120) at Dallas Stars (100)
Pick: Lean Carolina