Degen Show (11/4/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/4/21
NFL Week 9 Fantasy
Week 8 Recap
Nope. Not a good week for me. In DFS, I lost Jameis Winston early, got a goose egg from Robby Anderson, and bad performances by Marquez Callaway and James Robinson. Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson were my bright spots.
In my PPR league, I lost by 0.60 points mostly because Travis Kelce had a shit game. There were some other gaffs that caused the loss – but the Kelce one is the easiest to bitch about.
QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) – He’s going to cost you since he’s the 3rd highest costing QB at FanDuel. But at $8300 at FanDuel it’s almost a bargain against a Vikings team that is 21st in opponents rushing yards per game and 18th in opponents passing yards per game and gives up. Now the risk is that Minnesota often bends without breaking. So Lamar needs to get some TDs to add to the massive yardage he should be able to rack up this week.
But he’s not my starter since I needed to save some money. So I will get to that in value plays.
RB: Alvin Kamara (NO) – With Jameis Winston out, Kamara should be featured even more. New Orleans did bring back his former partner in crime to that backfield but it should not reduce Kamara’s touches or his catches from whoever is slotted at QB. Atlanta ranks 26th in opponents rushing yards per game and the Saints should be able to exploit that. He’s going to cost you though at $9400.
WR: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) – I know Cleveland’s defense has been pretty good this year but they do give up 2.1 passing TDs per game – which ranks 28th in the league. So Chase at $7900 seems like a good pick. And maybe just couple him up with Joe Burrow and see what happens.
TE: Darren Waller (LV) – Maybe I am sour on Kelce right now or maybe it’s the Giants’ 1.9 passing TDs allowed per game that is calling me to Waller here. I think he’s the tight end play of the week as long as he’s 100% healthy. $6800 at FanDuel will cost you though.
Defense: Kansas City Chiefs – Perception becomes reality. The Chiefs are perceived as one of the worst defenses in the league but in fact, they are only a little bad. The Packers aren’t a dynamic offense and will need to lean on the run game a bit more this week with Rodgers out with the vid. So at $3300, I’m taking a flyer on a KC defense that can step up when needed.
Or, you know, Jordan Love has an amazing week and shows Rodgers why he was cucked to begin with.
QB: Mac Jones (NE) – Mac Jones is growing on me but he’s facing a very tough Panther’s defense that ranks 2nd in opponents pass against and tied for 10th in opponents pass TDs allowed per game. Just a tough week for the rookie to shine in.
RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – In the same game I would avoid Christian McCaffrey. He’s coming back from injury so not sure if he even plays. Matt Rhule has been coy about his plans since he does not have to report him on the injury report this week. A very Bellichickian move. But still, at $10k, he’s a risk even if healthy. New England is a pretty good run defense – ranking 16th in opponents rushing yards but 5th in opponents rushing TDs per game.
WR: Deebo Samuel (SF) – At $8000, he’s the third ranked wide receiver on FanDuel this week. I just think that’s a tad bit too much against an Arizona secondary that ranks 4th in passing yards allowed and 7th in opponents passing TDs allowed.
QB: Joe Burrow (CIN) – I tipped my hand here already. Lamar was my top choice at QB this week but I am saving some money by taking Burrow at $7600. Pairing him up with Chase has been a good choice often this year and they will want to move past that Jets’ loss by taking it out on a divisional opponent that is on the ropes right now.
RB: Chase Edmonds (ARZ) – He’s $5900 at FanDuel and seems to be getting more touches lately than Connor. He is a bit banged up so that is a risk but San Francisco is 27th in opponents rushing yards per game and gives up 1.3 rushing TDs per game – which ranks 28th.
WR: Jaylen Waddle (MIA) – Houston’s defense should make Tua look like the can’t miss QB of the century. And I like him to target Waddle here for some of that offense. Houston gives up 1.9 pass TDs per game and here’s hoping that at least 1 goes to Jaylen. At $6100 he’s a bit of a bargain this week.
WR: Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – I also like Jeudy to help shred up that Dallas secondary. At $5800 I think he’ll be a productive receiver this week.
NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football
NY Jets (10.5) vs. Indianapolis (-10.5)
Spread: Lean Indianapolis
Total: Bet $50 Under 46.5
Predicted Score: NY Jets 16 – Indianapolis 27 (43)
Notes: The Jets might be emboldened by their win over the Bengals and the possible emergence of their future Kirk Cousins. Can they make it two wins in a row? Probably not. Traveling on a short week is always tough. Unless you are the Packers, apparently. But I digress.
The Colts are coming a close loss to the Titans. A loss that could end up being a win since they knocked out Derek Henry possibly for the season. And with that injury, Carson Wentz and Indianapolis have a chance to make a push for the AFC South.
In many ways, the Colts are a watered-down version of the Packers. They have a middle of the pack offense statistically and a defense that is one of the better in the league. So seeing this double-digit line my first reaction was “No way.” But after running the numbers it does seem like they could do it.
I just don’t trust them and I’d like to see what the Jets are now if they can actually move the ball down the field. A lean on Indy to cover but what I like here is the under.
Short week and two offenses that can slow a game to a grind. $50 bet on the under 46.5.
BOS (7) at MIA (-7)
Pick: Bet $15 MIA ML (-300)
Total: 216 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: BOS 105 – MIA 115
Notes: The Celtics managed not to lose to Orlando last night. They won’t be so lucky tonight as they head to Miami – a team that is incredibly tough to beat at home and is off to a great start to their season. The line might seem like a lot, but I don’t think it is. Miami could win this game by double-digits.
Jaylen Brown had a good game yesterday but in a back-to-back, I cannot expect the same from him tonight. In general, I don’t know what to expect of the Celtics. Other than losing this game tonight.
$15 moneyline bet on Miami. I have this at -$300 right now.
PHI (-6) at DET (6)
Pick: Bet $15 PHI ML (-240)
Total: 208.5 (Lean Under – 208)
Predicted Score: PHI 109 – DET 99
Notes: Another game that I need to eye the moneyline is the Sixers at Detroit. Philly got a good win yesterday against the Bulls. But that was a home game and now they travel in a back-to-back situation and that always makes me wonder about Joel Embiid.
The Sixers already have Tobias Harris and Danny Green on their injury list. Without Embiid, or a limited Embiid, not sure if they cover. So a $15 moneyline bet on the Sixers.
HOU (10.5) at PHX (-10.5)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU ML (+400)
Total: 217.5 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: HOU 105 – PHX 109
Notes: I’ll preface this with no, I do not have the Houston Rockets winning the game. But that +$400 moneyline is tempting for sure. Houston has not been playing terrible basketball and the Suns have not been playing great basketball. So more than likely the play is to take Houston with the points but my moneyline implied probability says its worth a risk.
$10 moneyline bet on the Missiles.
UTA (-1) at ATL (1)
Pick: Lean UTA
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: UTA 108 – ATL 106
OKC (12.5) at LAL (-12.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: OKC 101 – LAL 110
New York Islanders (-140) at Montreal Canadiens (120)
Pick: Bet $10 New York Islanders
Notes: The Islanders continue their road trip as they impatiently wait for their stadium to be ready. They head to Montreal to take on a Canadiens team that is coming off a shutout win over Detroit. Trust me. I know.
New York has been off for a few days and should be well-rested. $10 bet on the Islanders.
Dallas Stars (125) at Calgary Flames (-145)
Pick: Bet $10 Calgary
Notes: The Flames are one of the best teams in hockey and Dallas, right now, is one of the worst. My apprehension in this game is that I think the line should be much worse. Now granted, I bet on Calgary in their last game and it didn’t turn out well for me.
Time for them to repay the debt. $10 bet on the Flames.
St. Louis Blues (-125) at San Jose Sharks (105)
Pick: Bet $10 San Jose
Notes: On paper, it does seem like the Blues are a much better team than San Jose. On the ice though, it seems a bit closer than expected. San Jose has been pretty good at home this season and the way this line is moving, I think you need to take the Sharks now before you end up with a negative line.
$10 bet on the Sharks.
Vegas Golden Knights (-182) at Ottawa Senators (140)
Pick: Lean Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning (110) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-130)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Washington Capitals (130) at Florida Panthers (-150)
Pick: Lean Washington
Philadelphia Flyers (-105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-115)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings (210) at Boston Bruins (-265)
Pick: Lean Boston
Buffalo Sabres (150) at Seattle Kraken (-175)
Pick: Lean Buffalo