Degen Show (12/1/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/1/21
PHI (2.5) at BOS (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS ML
Total: 210.5 (Lean Over – 212)
Predicted Score: PHI 103 – BOS 109
Notes: Time to rip the bandaid off for the first time in a while. No, I still don’t love this Boston team. Their recent losses to San Antonio and Brooklyn stand as a stark reminder that this team is mediocre at best.
But I also don’t love how Philly has played lately – even with Embiid back in their lineup. I do think Philly will eventually get things right whereas the Celtics are who they are. But Philly is shooting an abysmal 45% effective field goal the past few weeks – which is 7% below their season average.
Maybe tonight is the night they get it back together but I’m hoping they wait at least one more game before they do.
$10 moneyline bet on the Celtics.
MIN (3.5) at WAS (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 MIN ML
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: MIN 111 – WAS 106
Notes: It’s hard not to like how Minnesota has played recently. It finally seems like their talent are all playing to their level and they have the right balance on their offense.
Washington has not played as well as their hot start but they did manage to split their road trip with wins over Dallas and OKC. They head home where they are 7-2 this season.
What stands out about Minnesota this season is their defense. They rank 4th in defensive efficiency and while they give up a lot of points per game, it is getting better.
I’ll take a flyer on the T-Wolves here. $10 moneyline bet on Minnesota.
ATL (1.5) at IND (-1.5)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL ML
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 218)
Predicted Score: ATL 113 – IND 105
Notes: The Hawks are coming off a loss to the Knicks but prior to that, they were rolling. And their offense finally looked to be clicking.
Indy has lost 3 of 4 games and continues to be a team that is the model of inconsistency. They have a big win over Chicago going 13-31 from 3 point land and then they can’t score 100 points against Minnesota – shooting 9-37 from 3.
Atlanta’s effective field goal % is trending up while Indy’s is trending down. Atlanta’s defensive efficiency has also been much better as of late.
I think the Hawks nab the win here. $10 moneyline bet on Atlanta.
DAL (-3.5) at NOP (3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 NOP ML
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 208)
Predicted Score: DAL 102 – NOP 106
Notes: The Pelicans don’t completely suck anymore. They still suck. But not completely.
New Orleans has nabbed wins over the Clippers, Jazz and Wizards recently. The Mavs? They’ve lost 4 of 5 games.
Shockingly, Kristaps Porzingis is injured. He’s listed as questionable for tonight. The Pelicans are still eagerly waiting for the return of the Round Mound of Beignet Town to return.
Until then, a healthy Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas have kept this team competitive.
$10 moneyline bet on the Pelicans.
DEN (-8.5) at ORL (8.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 207.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: DEN 109 – ORL 107
CLE (-7.5) at MIA (7.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 204.5 (Lean Over – 212)
Predicted Score: CLE 105 – MIA 107
HOU (3) at OKC (-3)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 214 (Lean Under – 205)
Predicted Score: HOU 101 – OKC 104
CHA (8) at MIL (-8)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 230 (Lean Under – 222)
Predicted Score: CHA 107 – MIL 115
SAC (7.5) at LAC (-7.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: SAC 106 – LAC 111
Philadelphia Flyers (165) at New York Rangers (-185)
Pick: Bet $10 New York Rangers
Notes: The Rangers have won 4 of 5 games and are 5-1-1 at home this season. The Flyers are on a big losing streak after losing to the Devils a few days back. It was their 6th loss in a row.
The worst part is that 3 of those losses had Carter Hart in goal and he gave up 14 combined goals in those 3 games. If the Flyers cannot depend on goaltending, then its going to be an issue for them.
Philly is 26th in goals scored per game and 30th in expected goals for. This is an offense that is not getting good shots on goal and really, not getting many shots on goal as they rank 24th in that as well.
The Rangers have a good enough offense and some great goaltending. I get it’s a lot of chalk to eat on a team we don’t consider elite – but they are still pretty damn good this year.
The money is all over New York in this one and the line is getting worse. I’m with the money here.
$10 bet on the Rangers.
Vancouver Canucks (-125) at Ottawa Senators (105)
Pick: Bet $10 Ottawa
Notes: The Canucks broke their losing streak two days ago with a close win over the Canadiens.
The Senators hope to break their 5 game losing streak today as they head back home to the Canadian Tire Centre where they had their last win was two weeks ago over the Penguins.
Ottawa ranks 27th in goals per game with 2.42. That’s still markedly better than Vancouver’s 2.26 – which is only better than the Blackhawks, Islanders and Coyotes.
Ottawa does have the worst goaltending in the league but also has the second hardest strength of schedule – so they are playing the better offenses in the league and suffering because of that.
The money is hammering Vancouver here and seems like the line is getting better for them. Looks a little trappish to me and traps have been hitting a lot lately.
I have Ottawa winning this game outright so I will take the plus line.
$10 bet on the Senators.
Colorado Avalanche (110) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-130)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Seattle Kraken (110) at Detroit Red Wings (-130)
Pick: Lean Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights (-150) at Anaheim Ducks (130)
Pick: Lean Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins (110) at Edmonton Oilers (-130)
Pick: Lean Edmonton