Degen Show (12/11/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/11/21
NFL Week 14
Dallas (-4.5) vs. Washington (4.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Dallas
Total: Lean Under 48
Predicted Score: Dallas 28 – Washington 20 (48)
Notes: Divisional games are always tough to bet on. We certainly established that fact last week. And this one is definitely interesting as the Washington Football Limited Liability Corporation is riding a pretty nice win streak.
If Washington win, it puts some pressure on the Cowboys from here on out. And don’t overlook Philly creeping up behind there too.
Which makes this all the more fun because the NFC East pretty much just plays each other the rest of the season.
Dallas has not been unbeatable lately. I still think that if healthy, this is a dangerous team. But that’s been a big “if.”
Zeke has a banged up knee and his backup, Tony Pollard, is now dealing with a foot injury.
Their defense has been dealing with injuries and it does seem like their d-line will be healthy this week for the first time this season.
Washington is playing some good football lately – controlling the clock with Antonio Gibson and playing some top 10 defense. They should give Dallas some problems.
But ultimately I think Dallas goes on the road, gets the win and covers. Its not like they have Mike Zimmer as a coach. It’s Mike McCarthy. What could go wrong?
$50 bet on the Cowboys.
Jacksonville (8.5) vs. Tennessee (-8.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Tennessee
Total: Lean Under 43.5
Predicted Score: Jacksonville 14 – Tennessee 28 (42)
Notes: Because I’m a glutton for punishment, let’s jump into another divisional game as Jacksonville heads to Tennessee. The Jags have lost 4 in a row and are coming off a 30 point loss to the Rams.
The Titans have lost 2 in a row and have let the AFC 1-seed – and possibly the AFC South – slip from their grasps. But the Jags are the perfect team to cure their ales.
Four times this year teams on losing streaks were able to get right by playing Jacksonville. For the Titans, this is a chance to get one in the win column but they need to fix some things for the long term.
Tennessee’s offensive line is not very good right now. Tannehill is constantly under pressure and only 2 QBs have been sacked more than him.
They rank 25th in sacks allowed per game and teams are pressuring Tannehill to make some bad decisions.
Still, it’s the goddamn Jaguars. I’m not sure if they have the personnel to risk pressuring the QB without risking giving up some big plays.
Titans should get right this week.
$50 bet on Tennessee.
Detroit (10) vs. Denver (-10)
Spread: Bet $10 Detroit
Total: Lean Under 42
Predicted Score: Detroit 16 – Denver 21 (37)
Notes: Emboldened by their big win over the Vikings, the Lions will head to Denver to see if they can win two in a row. The simple answer is, no. The more complicated answer is still no.
Denver is coming off a bit of a stinker against the Chiefs last week but at 6-6, they are still in the hunt for the AFC West. They have a top 10 defense and their rushing game has been pretty stellar the past month or so.
This should be an ugly one and Denver should get the win. But 10 points is just too much for Denver – a team that averages 19.8 points per game.
$50 bet on the Lions.
Buffalo (3.5) vs. Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Buffalo
Total: Bet $50 Over
Predicted Score: Buffalo 28 – Tampa Bay 31 (59)
Notes: Tampa has won 3 in a row after dropping a couple of games to good, but not great competition. That’s the Bills. Good, not great.
I can’t really give them too much shit for their loss to the Patriots on Monday night but it was a loss nonetheless. And they cannot afford many more of those.
When I ran my numbers on this one I kept getting the same thing – Tampa by 3. And I get it. They will run the ball and exploit the same defensive weakness that New England did.
They have Brady at QB so they will throw it, sure, but Buffalo’s pass D is pretty good so I can’t imagine big plays being given up. Still, Tampa should be able to move the ball and score.
Buffalo, on the other hand, should be able to throw against a defense that ranks 20th in passing yards allowed per game. I think they can keep up offensively.
So a $50 bet on Buffalo to keep this within 3 and another $50 on the over.
Chicago (12.5) vs. Green Bay (-12.5)
Spread: Lean Chicago
Total: Bet $50 Under 43
Predicted Score: Chicago 15 – Green Bay 24 (39)
Notes: This one is simple. Chicago is the 3rd lowest scoring team in the NFL and the Packers are a very good defense. Aaron Rodgers owns the city of Chicago and perhaps the state of Illinois.
Unless he single-handedly gets this game to be the over, I just don’t see this game producing a ton of points.
It’s going to be a warm one at Lambeau tomorrow – around 35 degrees at kickoff – which should add to the fun here.
$50 bet on the under.
Baltimore (3) vs. Cleveland (-3)
Spread: Lean Baltimore
Total: Lean Under 42.5
Predicted Score: Baltimore 23 – Cleveland 18 (41)
Las Vegas (10) vs. Kansas City (-10)
Spread: Lean Las Vegas
Total: Lean Under 48
Predicted Score: Las Vegas 22 – Kansas City 26 (48)
Atlanta (2.5) vs. Carolina (-2.5)
Spread: Lean Carolina
Total: Lean Under 41.5
Predicted Score: Atlanta 17 – Carolina 20 (37)
New Orleans (-5.5) vs. NY Jets (5.5)
Spread: Lean New Orleans
Total: Lean Under 43
Predicted Score: New Orleans 24 – NY Jets 18 (42)
Seattle (-8.5) vs. Houston (8.5)
Spread: Lean Houston
Total: Lean Under 40.5
Predicted Score: Seattle 22 – Houston 16 (38)
NY Giants (10) vs. LA Chargers (-10)
Spread: Lean NY Giants
Total: Lean Over 43
Predicted Score: NY Giants 18 – LA Chargers 28 (46)
San Francisco (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati (1.5)
Spread: Lean Cincinnati
Total: Lean Over 49
Predicted Score: San Francisco 25 – Cincinnati 27 (52)