Degen Show (12/17/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/17/21
Las Vegas (-3.5) vs. Cleveland (3.5)
Spread: Lean Cleveland
Total: Lean Over 38.5
Predicted Score: Las Vegas 21 – Cleveland 22 (43)
Notes: On the surface, all things being equal, the Browns win this game. They aren’t playing great football heading into this game but they are playing better football than the Raiders.
But all things are not equal here. Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Jarvis Landry, 15 other players, the head coach and some other coaches are all out due to COVID protocols.
So they postpone the game a few days to see if anyone is available on Monday or Tuesday, right?
Nah, the NFL revenue-generating machine is foaming at the mouth to get Saturday football in a week where college football takes the backseat on a Saturday.
So they give us this gem. An underperforming Raiders team and depleted Browns team.
Sounds like a blast.
Vegas should win. But I hate them on the road. I hate them to cover.
Lean on Cleveland.
New England (2.5) vs. Indianapolis (-2.5)
Spread: Lean Indianapolis
Total: Lean Over 45.5
Predicted Score: New England 25 – Indianapolis 28 (53)
Notes: A few weeks ago, I put Indy pretty high up in my Degen rank. And they inevitably fell on the list. But don’t think for a second that this isn’t a dangerous team.
New England is rolling right now. They are heading into Indy and won’t take the Colts lightly.
But something just seems off about this one. The line doesn’t feel right. The money hitting Indy doesn’t feel right.
And there’s this sneaking suspicion I’ve had about the books trying to bait us on New England. It hasn’t played out the past month since I have been saying it. Not sure if it plays out this week.
I have the Colts winning. I wanted to bet the Colts. I just can’t.
Lean on Indianapolis.
As for the total, I really wanted to bet the over until I saw money hammering the over and the line getting better.
So yeah, fuck this game. I’ll still enjoy watching it though.
MIA (-4.5) at ORL (4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 MIA ML
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: MIA 109 – ORL 104
Notes: Orlando has lost 6 in a row and if there is a chance to upset the Heat, it would be today as they are still without Jimmy and Bam. But don’t take Kyle Lowry for granted.
The Heat have won 3 of 4 games – beating Milwaukee, Chicago and Philly. Now granted, all of those teams are dealing with some issues too.
But you’d say banged up versions of each are still better than Orlando.
The Magic are one of the worst teams when it comes to shooting and scoring. And it seems to be getting worse. At least their defense is good, right?
Nope. Bottom 5 in the league there too.
Miami should get the road win today. $10 moneyline bet on the Heat.
DEN (4.5) at ATL (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 DEN ML
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: DEN 115 – ATL 113
Notes: Denver is a weird team. Some nights they are highly competitive and other nights they look like a team that has been ravaged by injuries to key players like Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
Coming off a blowout loss to the T-Wolves from two days ago, it would be easy to dismiss them against the Hawks at home tonight.
Only, I don’t like Atlanta much either.
They are 8-6 at home this year but they have dropped their last 3 home games. Their shooting has been on a downward trend as of late while Denver has been shooting better – particularly on the road.
I think there is value in the Denver moneyline here so that’s what I’m going to do.
$10 moneyline bet on the Nuggets.
CHA (1.5) at POR (-1.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CHA ML
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 228)
Predicted Score: CHA 117 – POR 111
Notes: I’ve made money fading Portland lately and I’m going to try my luck doing it again. This was a team that was unbeatable at home until they lost CJ McCollum.
Now? 7 losses in a row including their last 6 home games.
Charlotte is coming off that big win over the Spurs. Trust me. I know.
And now they look to win another road game and edge them closer to .500 on the road this season.
There is a chance we see LaMelo Ball on the court tonight but even without him I think the Hornets have a shot.
$10 moneyline bet on Charlotte.
GSW (-3.5) at BOS (3.5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 215)
Predicted Score: GSW 107 – BOS 108
MIL (-3.5) at NOP (3.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: MIL 108 – NOP 108
SAS (11.5) at UTA (-11.5)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 225 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: SAS 111 – UTA 116
LAL (1) at MIN (-1)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: LAL 115 – MIN 106
MEM (-5) at SAC (5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: MEM 112 – SAC 107
Vegas Golden Knights (-130) at New York Rangers (110)
Pick: Bet $10 New York
Notes: The Golden Knights enter game 3 of their road trip. It’s also the 3rd game in 4 nights for them.
After beating the Devils last night, they have to head to MSG to take on a Rangers team that will once again be without their star goalie.
Still, I’ve made money betting on the Rangers recently. They are 8-3 at home this season and while the loss of Shesterkin is huge, I love getting them at home with a plus line.
$10 bet on the Rangers.
Buffalo Sabres (240) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-300)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars (100) at St. Louis Blues (-120)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Washington Capitals (-110) at Winnipeg Jets (-110)
Pick: Lean Washington
Nashville Predators (100) at Chicago Blackhawks (-120)
Pick: Lean Nashville
Arizona Coyotes (210) at Anaheim Ducks (-250)
Pick: Lean Anaheim