Degen Show (12/18/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/18/21
NFL Week 15
Tennessee (1) vs. Pittsburgh (-1)
Spread: Bet $50 Tennessee
Total: Lean Over 43
Predicted Score: Tennessee 25 – Pittsburgh 19 (44)
Notes: My first reaction to this was “How the hell are the Steelers the favorites here?” But looking at the line, I guess the books started off giving the Steelers the home advantage -3 and the line shifted down to what it is as the money hammered it.
So I feel a little bit better but still uneasy to why the Steelers would give any points – even as a home team.
The Titans got things back on track with a shutout win over the Jaguars last week. They needed that win after dropping two in a row to the lowly Texans and the AFC leading Patriots.
Tennessee got some good news that Derek Henry should be back in about 2 weeks. Meaning he can get some carries in to shake off some rust before the playoffs.
He won’t be out there today but D’Onta Foreman should be able to run all over a Steelers’ defense that ranks 2nd to last in the league and has gotten worse the past month.
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 over their last 5 games. That lone win was a 1 point win over the Ravens that could have been a loss if Lamar Jackson connects on a 2-point conversion at the end.
This is a team that is going nowhere while the Titans have playoff positioning to work for. Titans should get the win today.
$50 moneyline bet on the Titans. Most books have that moneyline at -105 but I was able to lock it in at +105 earlier.
Arizona (-12.5) vs. Detroit (12.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Arizona
Total: Lean Under 47.5
Predicted Score: Arizona 30 – Detroit 16 (46)
Notes: The big spreads have cashed the past few weeks. I expect that there will be some regression on that since Vegas can’t afford to just cough up money to Panther betting the favorites.
But some of the big lines will still be covered and I think this is one of them.
Yeah, the Cardinals will be without their best receiver as Hopkins will miss the regular season. And yeah, both starting running backs have questionable tags on them.
But I expect Connor to play and Chase Edmonds to return. I expect Kyler Murray to throw the ball to Christian Kirk and AJ Green in Hopkins’ absence.
And I expect Goff to Goff things up for Detroit.
The Lions are coming off an absolute domination by the Broncos last week. Now granted, that was a road game and Goff and the Lions have played better at home this year.
But I still expect the road favorite to come in and cover this one.
$50 bet on Arizona.
Carolina (12) vs. Buffalo (-12)
Spread: Bet $50 Carolina
Total: Lean Over 44.5
Predicted Score: Carolina 19 – Buffalo 27 (46)
Notes: The Panthers have played 6 games on the road this year and Bills have played 6 home games this year. The Panthers are 3-3 on the road and the Bills are 3-3 at home.
Those 3 losses were that fluky week 1 loss to the Steelers (that is looking less fluky as the season has gone on), a blowout loss to the Colts, and that brutal Monday night loss to the Pats.
Those teams are all better than Carolina. So Buffalo should be able to go above .500 at home after this week. But cover this big spread?
Again, the big spreads have been covering. So maybe I am just being naïve here. But I cannot trust this Bills team. Especially against a Carolina defense that is pretty good against the pass.
Conversely, the Panthers have struggled against the run lately. It’s going to be a cold one in Buffalo tomorrow and the Bills could set the tone with the run game.
If that happens, I just can’t see them winning by double digits.
$50 bet on the Panthers.
Cincinnati (3) vs. Denver (-3)
Spread: Bet $50 Cincinnati
Total: Lean Over 44
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 26 – Denver 21 (47)
Notes: The Bengals could be leading the AFC North right now. But dropping 2 in a row – including an OT loss to the Niners last week – has them tied with the Browns for second place behind the Ravens.
We all thought the Bengals would make strides this year. And they have. But their inexperience shows at times. Now they hit the road to play in a tough environment against a Broncos team that doesn’t completely suck.
Over the past month or so, the Broncos have some impressive wins over the Cowboys and Chargers. They also have that aforementioned slaughter of the Lions from last week.
But they also have some duds mixed in there. And they have not always taken advantage of their mile high advantage.
I have the Bengals winning this one. But I won’t be tempted by the moneyline. This could be anyone’s game and possibly end in a dumb push.
$50 bet on the Bengals.
New Orleans (11) vs. Tampa Bay (-11)
Spread: Bet $50 New Orleans
Total: Lean Over 45.5
Predicted Score: New Orleans 23 – Tampa Bay 31 (54)
Notes: How many points does it impact a spread or a coach being out? From the looks of it, about 3. Much like an overreaction when a player is out, I think this is an overreaction.
Sure, the Bucs are capable of beating teams by double digits. But how often does it actually happen?
They beat the Falcons by 23 and again by 13. The Giants by 20. The Bears by 35. The Dolphins by 28.
So half of their wins end in blowouts. The other half wins by an average of 4.6 points.
The last time these teams played, New Orleans took it to Tampa. Alvin Kamara was able to move the ball on that stout Tampa defense.
Now granted, Jameis Winston was their QB for most of that game. And now they have Taysum Hill under center. Since Winston has gone down in that fateful Tampa win, the Saints have gone 1-5.
That lone win last week over the fucking Jets.
Tampa wins this one. No question. I am just struggling with this spread.
$50 bet on the Saints.
Dallas (-10.5) vs. NY Giants (10.5)
Spread: Lean Dallas
Total: Lean Over 44.5
Predicted Score: Dallas 31 – NY Giants 17 (48)
NY Jets (9.5) vs. Miami (-9.5)
Spread: Lean NY Jets
Total: Lean Under 41
Predicted Score: NY Jets 18 – Miami 21 (39)
Houston (5) vs. Jacksonville (-5)
Spread: Lean Houston
Total: Lean Under 39.5
Predicted Score: Houston 15 – Jacksonville 15 (30)
Atlanta (9.5) vs. San Francisco (-9.5)
Spread: Lean Atlanta
Total: Lean Under 46.5
Predicted Score: Atlanta 18 – San Francisco 26 (44)
Green Bay (-6.5) vs. Baltimore (6.5)
Spread: Lean Baltimore
Total: Lean Over 43.5
Predicted Score: Green Bay 23 – Baltimore 22 (45)
Notes: The question mark around Lamar Jackson makes this tough to bet.