Degen Show (12/2/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/2/21
NFL Week 13 Fantasy
Week 12 Recap
Almost cashed in my DFS tournament. I was bitten by lack of production by George Kittle at tight end, DeVonta Smith shitting the bed and the Rams getting toasted by A-Aron. Joe Mixon was the play of the week for sure and my Carson Wentz pick was pretty solid as well.
In my PPR league, I won 159.5 to 104.08. Dak Prescott, Adam Thielen, Antonio Gibson, Dalton Schultz and AJ Dillon were great this week. Thielen was the only guy I drafted. The rest came in recent trades.
QB: Kirk Cousins (MIN – $7700) – Kirk is a jerk but man, he can produce at times. And this is a producible week. Detroit’s pass defense has continued to decline each week and Minnesota looks to get into the NFC playoff race with some wins.
WR: Adam Thielen (MIN – $7600) – And I plan to stack Kirk with Adam Thielen. Already mentioned he came off a monster week last week. He’s had a few shit games. Trust me. I know. But overall he’s been a great receiver all season.
RB: Darrell Henderson (LAR – $7500) – Jacksonville has been bleeding yards on the ground recently and I’m hoping the Rams get their shit together. They need to run the ball to establish the play action and to also to avoid Stafford Syndrome from putting them down 7 early on.
TE: Kyle Pitts (ATL – $6200) – Tampa’s pass defense has gotten better but it can still be thrown on. Hoping Matty Ice shows up for this one and connect with Pitts often.
DEF: LA Rams ($4900) – I picked them last week and they shit the bed. Hoping they get right this week against the Jaguars. Maybe Jalen Ramsey will be extra motivated to beat his former team.
QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL – $8500) – I mean, yeah, he should beat up on the Steelers. But as the most expensive QB on the board and the way he’s playing, I think there is too much risk.
QB: Kyler Murray (ARZ – $8300) – Murray is still banged up and heading to cold-ass Chicago does not seem fun. Too much money for a dude we haven’t seen healthy in a while.
RB: Saquon Barkley (NYG – $7200) – Too much money to risk on a player that’s been injured and playing a Miami defense that is getting better week to week.
WR: Darnell Mooney (CHI – $6700) and Allen Robinson (CHI – $5700) – The Arizona pass defense is pretty damn good. And the QB shituation in Chicago is not great right now. I’d avoid these two guys.
WR: Elijah Moore (NYJ – $6100) – Last week was a bit of a dud so people could be down on him but he has produced well prior to that. Philly’s defense oscillates between good and bad so we will see which team shows up this week. (I’m hoping the bad one of course).
WR: Marquise Brown (BAL – $7100) – Though I think Lamar is too much money this week, he should be able to put up some numbers against the Steelers. And Brown could be a primary target there.
RB: Antonio Gibson (WAS – $6200) – He’s a bit banged up and hard to believe he produces like last week. But the Vegas defense ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game.
RB: Jamaal Williams (DET – $6500) – The injury to D’Andre Swift could mean Williams gets the ball a lot this week. Minnesota ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed per game so could be some value on Williams here.
Thursday Night Football
Dallas (-4.5) vs. New Orleans (4.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Dallas
Total: Lean Over 47.5
Predicted Score: Dallas 30 – New Orleans 23 (53)
Notes: New Orleans will hand the ball over to their potential future QB. After extending Taysum Hill last week – and riding a 4-game losing streak – the Saints just need to change things up and see what they have with Hill at QB.
The Saints are banged up and Alvin Kamara is listed as questionable for today’s game. Dallas should get their two wide receivers back as CeeDee Lamb has cleared concussion protocols and Amari Cooper is back from his vid absence.
The Cowboys have lost two in a row and when healthy, this is a damn good team. They look close enough this week and I’m not sure the Hill experiment will go great in New Orleans.
Give me Dallas here. $50 bet on the Cowboys.
MIL (-4.5) at TOR (4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 MIL ML
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: MIL 112 – TOR 101
Notes: Milwaukee just played last night and won a close one over the Hornets. Now they turn around and head to Toronto to play a Raptors team that has lost 3 in a row.
The Raptors are just 2-8 at home this season is one of the worst teams defensively in the league. Even if Milwaukee sits or rests players in the back-to-back, I think they win.
$10 moneyline bet on the Bucks.
SAS (3.5) at POR (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 POR ML
Total: 221.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: SAS 102 – POR 113
Notes: Portland returned home the other day and guess what? They won. Shocker, right? This is a team that is 10-1 at home and 56% EFG at home and is also 1-10 and shooting 5% worse on the road.
But this is a home game!
The Spurs have won 2 in a row but now they hit the road where they are just 2-7. I know they will be without Damian Lillard, but still, I think Portland gets the win today.
$10 moneyline bet on the Blazers.
CHI (-2) at NYK (2)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: CHI 109 – NYK 105
OKC (9) at MEM (-9)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: OKC 107 – MEM 109
DET (13) at PHX (-13)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 210.5 (Lean Under – 210)
Predicted Score: DET 99 – PHX 111
St. Louis Blues (120) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-140)
Pick: Bet $10 St. Louis
Notes: The Lightning have lost 2 games in a row but they head home where they are definitely better this season. The Blues have lost 4 consecutive road games but they have won their last 2 games – including a home win over the Lightning.
I’m not in love with today’s NHL slate and this isn’t a game I really love either. The Lightning losing 3 in a row and the Blues winning two straight against them seems unlikely.
But I can’t resist the plus line here.
$10 bet on the Blues.
San Jose Sharks (100) at New York Islanders (-120)
Pick: Bet $10 San Jose
Notes: Damn, the Islanders suck. The expectation was that once they were home in their new arena they would put things together. That has not happened yet.
They have lost their first 4 home games and I know – they can’t lose them all, right?
I’m just not sure if they break that losing streak tonight. San Jose has won 4 of 5 games including their last two – both road games.
The Sharks’ 2.73 goals per game is mediocre. But its still better than New York’s paltry 1.88. Defensively, the Islanders used to be solid – but their goals against ranks 19th this year while San Jose is 8th.
$10 bet on the Sharks.
New Jersey Devils (155) at Minnesota Wild (-175)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Buffalo Sabres (230) at Florida Panthers (-280)
Pick: Lean Florida
Colorado Avalanche (-160) at Montreal Canadiens (140)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Chicago Blackhawks (170) at Washington Capitals (-200)
Pick: Lean Washington
Ottawa Senators (240) at Carolina Hurricanes (-300)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Boston Bruins (-120) at Nashville Predators (100)
Pick: Lean Boston
Columbus Blue Jackets (150) at Dallas Stars (-170)
Pick: Lean Columbus
Calgary Flames (-150) at Los Angeles Kings (130)
Pick: Lean Calgary