Degen Show (12/20/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/20/21
Max’s NFL Week 15 Touchdown
Point 1: We Still Know Nothing
I made the point a few weeks ago and Maxy mentioned it yesterday on the Sunday show that perhaps there are no good teams in this league and just good match-ups.
This weekend might have moved that theory closer to being correct as our Degen rank took a punch to the mouth that would also knock Tyron Woodley out.
Let’s start with Saturday where the Patriots got dominated by the Colts. I really wanted to bet Indy in this game but the specter of the Pats gave me too much fear.
Well, maybe Indy just showed the league how to deal with the bully.
Bully them first. Bully them often.
Jonathan Taylor once again proved he’s the best back in the game right now as he ran all over the Patriots’ heralded defense. He ran so much that a 57 yard performance from Carson Wentz was more than enough as Indy beat the Pats 27-17.
Point 2: We Still Know Nothing (continued)
Next, let’s talk about the Cardinals. Arizona managed to win games this season without both Murray and Hopkins so surely they would beat the fuck out of the Lions despite not having Hopkins around.
Nope. Jared Goff finally got a bigtime win for the Rams as he led Detroit to a 30-12 domination of Arizona. It was Arizona’s first road loss and it demonstrated some glaring holes in their defense.
Detroit was able to establish the run, control the clock and gave time to Goff so he could throw 3 TDs. The Cardinals host the Colts next week, head to Dallas after that and then close the season out with Seattle.
This was a game they could not afford to lose if they wanted that top seed in the NFC.
Point 3: We Still Know Nothing (continued)
Next on my list, if you hadn’t guessed already, is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This was a team I had clear above any other team in the league.
Welp, the Saints came marching into town and prevented the Bucs not only from winning, but also from scoring a point.
This might be the evidence to my thesis about good match-ups. Because New Orleans is a nightmare for the Bucs this season.
Tampa Bay did have a slew of injuries to deal with but to put up a goddamn goose egg on Sunday night football? Time to burn down the Degen rank and start all over.
Point 4: And no, I am not ranking the goddamn Packers any higher this week
Green Bay was one of the high win percentage teams that notched a win this weekend. They did so because Harbaugh was out to prove a point.
And it blew up in his face.
Let’s get into the way back machine to Week 13. The 8-3 Ravens had just scored a touchdown against their division rivals that put them behind by a point. Harbaugh sends his offense onto the field to go for 2 and go for the win.
Gutsy fucking play. I loved it.
Well, they didn’t get the 2 but I still defended the decision.
Fast forward back to this game and the Ravens, without their star QB, managed to get a potential game-tying TD with less than a minute left. Harbaugh lines up the offense once again. Tries to draw the defense offsides. And calls a timeout when that doesn’t work.
Great, now he will send his automatic kicker onto the field to tie this thing up and give the Ravens a chance to break their 2-game losing streak. Right? Right?
Nope. The mother fucker goes for 2 again and like deja-fucking-vu, they miss again.
So the Frauds walk away 11-3 while the Ravens now drop to 8-6 on the year and find themselves behind the Bengals in the AFC North.
I loved him going for it against the Steelers a few weeks ago because there wasn’t much to lose. Baltimore had a good lead in the North and not playing OT in a hostile environment like Pittsburgh was a sound decision.
This one is tougher for me to defend. I get that you fear an aging Aaron Rodgers more than an aging Big Ben so a chance to knock them out and avoid OT is a nice dream.
But you were at home and a loss meant a 3-game losing skid. The risk-reward was a different ratio here.
And now I get to see Panther put the Frauds as number 1 in his Degen list this week and delusional Packers fans can shout about how good they are.
Point 5: No Post Coach Bump
Well, the Jaguars missed the message about playing harder for their new coach as the Texans beat Jacksonville 30-16 yesterday.
The loss puts the Jaguars in a familiar situation: last place in the league.
That’s right, with their loss and the Lions win, Jacksonville now is in line for the #1 pick once again. Houston is now slotted at the #3 pick.
The Jets lost to the Dolphins yesterday so that puts them at 3-11 and in 4th in the draft.
The Giants lost to the Cowboys – in a game where the Cowboys’ offense still seems to have issues but as predicted, their defense looked elite against the feeble Giants’ offense.
So that puts the Giants at 4-10 and situated into the 5th spot for the draft.
Point 6: So the Bills got a Win
Buffalo stopped the bleeding by beating up on a hapless Panthers team yesterday. It ended their 2-game skid. But they cannot bask in the glory of a win for too long.
Buffalo has to head to Foxborough for a divisional match-up against the Patriots. It could be the game that decides the East as Buffalo closes out the season against the Falcons and the Jets while the Pats get the Jaguars and Dolphins.
If the Bills get the win, they can then hope that the Pats will once again get too comfortable in Miami in the last game of the season.
Sorry, I missed the extra point this week. Maybe I should have gone for two like Harbaugh did.
And that’s Max’s Week 15 touchdown.
NFL Monday Night Football
Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Chicago (6.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Minnesota
Total: Lean Over 44.5
Predicted Score: Minnesota 27 – Chicago 18 (45)
Notes: Stop me if you have heard this one before. Divisional games are weird. And now we have the Vikings heading on the road to Chicago as a touchdown favorite. Logic says, jump on Chicago.
I say fuck logic.
The Vikings are a 6-win team. In those wins, only 2 were close – a 2 point win over the Lions and a 3 point win over the Packers. This team is capable of winning by a TD.
Now, its hard to forget some of their losses, though. 5 losses by 4 points or less. And many of those were blown leads in the 4th. So they are also capable of having a TD lead only to lose it at the very end or in OT.
But this Chicago team is not very good. They are 2-4 at home this season and whenever they can muster up some offense, their defense forgets how to play.
Dalvin Cook looked amazing last week and he should be able to move the ball on this Chicago defense that ranks 22nd in opponent’s rushing yards allowed per game.
The Vikings have a very aggressive defensive line and will be facing a depleted Chicago o-line. I have seen some progress from Justin Fields but he’s still not someone I trust.
He will be under pressure today and will make bad decisions. So yeah, fuck logic here.
$50 bet on the Vikings.
Las Vegas (3) vs. Cleveland (-3)
Spread: Lean Las Vegas
Total: Lean Over 41
Predicted Score: Las Vegas 21 – Cleveland 22 (43)
Notes: Panther made the joke that if you were betting on this throughout the week, you probably could have caught both teams with plus lines on a few occasions. When we discussed this game Friday, the Browns were getting points.
Fast forward today where the COVID-19 protocols have cleared some of their key players and now the Browns are set to the home favorites. It still does not make this game a bettable one for me.
We’ve outlined the major issues the Raiders have. And being on the road has been a mixed bag.
The Browns may still be without Baker Mayfield – who tested positive last week – and their head coach. They still have a chance to test today. Nick Mullens looks like he could be the starter if Mayfield is out.
A few o-linemen were cleared – so Nick Chubb should have a good game. But its still too many questions for me in this one.
I’ll lean Las Vegas here.
HOU (8) at CHI (-8)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU ML
Total: 224.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: HOU 109 – CHI 112
Notes: I’ve made some money betting on Houston this season and I’ll try to cash another lottery ticket again today.
The Bulls have been beset with COVID-19 issues and Zach Lavine continues to be out. They still have DeRozan, Ball and Vuc – so the talent pool is greater in Chicago than it is with Houston.
The Rockets are only 3-13 on the road this season and one of those wins came two days ago in Detroit. So the chances of them winning are slim.
But its still greater than the implied probability of this line indicates. So yeah, I’ll take a flyer here.
$10 moneyline bet on Houston.
SAS (5) at LAC (-5)
Pick: Bet $10 LAC ML
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: SAS 109 – LAC 113
Notes: Paul George could be back today for LA – returning from an elbow injury. That could help the Clippers break their losing streak.
LA suffered a close loss in OKC over the weekend but return home to the CryptoStaplesArena to host a Spurs team that continues a road trip of their own.
San Antonio is just 5-9 on the road but one of those was a shocking win over the Jazz 3 days ago. This will be their third game in 4 days after losing to the Kings yesterday in Sacramento.
I’m banking on George being back but even if not, I think the Clippers still win.
$10 moneyline bet on LA.
OKC (9) at MEM (-9)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 212.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: OKC 104 – MEM 108
CHA (12) at UTA (-12)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 235.5 (Lean Under – 234)
Predicted Score: CHA 113 – UTA 121
SAC (13.5) at GSW (-13.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: SAC 105 – GSW 116
Columbus Blue Jackets (-115) at Buffalo Sabres (-105)
Pick: Lean Columbus
Minnesota Wild (-105) at Dallas Stars (-115)
Pick: Lean Dallas