Degen Show (12/21/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/21/21
NFL Tuesday Night Football
Seattle (7) vs. LA Rams (-7)
Spread: Bet $50 LA Rams
Total: Lean Over 45.5
Predicted Score: Seattle 22 – LA Rams 33 (55)
Notes: With the Cardinals loss this past weekend, the Rams will have a chance to finally catch up in the NFC West. But I’m not ready to go there just yet.
I laid out the tough schedule that Arizona has from here on out and the road for the Rams won’t be easy either. After this one, they get the Vikings and Ravens on the road and then close it out with the Niners in Week 18.
So yeah, this is an important one for the Rams.
The last time these teams played, the Rams went into Seattle in week 5 and got a 26-17 win. This game changed the course of the season for Seattle as Russell Wilson injured his finger – ushering in the Geno Smith portion of the season.
Wilson is healthy and Seattle has won 2 in a row.
The Rams have also won 2 in a row and maybe they are on the path to getting right. A disruptive COVID outbreak and Tuesday night game is not ideal, but this team seems focused on this game – no matter who they have available.
But the postponement seems to have benefited them as it gave time for some key players to be eligible.
Division games are weird. The Rams aren’t closers. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
But I think they get this one. Aaron Donald has been Wilson’s biggest nightmare and after a 3-sack outing against Kyler Murray, Donald should be motivated to get the Rams that NFC West.
$50 bet on the Rams.
Washington (6) vs. Philadelphia (-6)
Spread: Lean Washington
Total: Lean Over 42.5
Predicted Score: Washington 21 – Philadelphia 25 (46)
Notes: Another division game and this one, on paper, seems a bit one-sided. Which means I want to avoid it like the plague. Because, you know, Washington has done so well avoiding the plague this past week.
The Football Organization has dealt with a slew of positive COVID tests and much like the Browns yesterday, their starting QB situation is pretty much a gametime decision.
Add the 23 positive tests on top of their other injuries, and this is a team of uncertainty at the moment.
The Eagles are coming off a bye. Last we saw them, Gardner Minshew was out there shredding the Jets. Whether he or Jalen Hurts starts this week is still a question.
The Eagles are healthier, rested and at home. So why am I not touching this one? Because everyone is betting Philly here and divisional games are weird.
Lean on Washington.
DET (9.5) at NYK (-9.5)
Pick: Bet $10 Detroit ML
Total: 207 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: DET 106 – NYK 107
Notes: The Knicks are 5-10 at home this season and at a point where they had to bring Kemba Walker back into the lineup. For whatever reason, Walker has landed on Thibs’ shitlist but after a 29 point performance, maybe he ends up on the nice list before Christmas.
Detroit got a big home win over the Heat a few days ago but they hit the road where they are 2-12. They are the worst shooting team in the league and have the second lowest points per game this season.
But there is one thing that is astounding. Their defensive efficiency is better than New York’s this season. For a team that was #3 in defensive efficiency last season, the Knicks have not shown interest in replicating that intensity this year.
Which, you know, has led to their 13-17 record.
I have the Knicks winning. But its close. I think this could be an ugly, low-scoring game. And as such, the value is on Detroit here.
$10 moneyline bet on the Pistons.
POR (-1) at NOP (1)
Pick: Bet $10 NOP ML
Total: 219 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: POR 106 – NOP 108
Notes: The Blazers have managed to win 2 games in a row including a road win over the Grizzlies. That win improved their road record to 2-11 on the year. Can they make it 3 wins today?
I’m banking on no.
New Orleans has played some pretty good basketball the past few weeks. Once Brandon Ingram came back from injury, this team actually started to win.
What a shocker, right? Your best player is available and you start winning some games.
Still missing from their lineup is their top draft pick from a few years back.
Zion had a setback in his recovery that I am sure was not exacerbated by the fact that he’s now appearing on TLC’s 600 Lb Life.
But considering how awful this team was – 1-12 to start the season – being 10-21 is actually kind of remarkable. I think they can make it to 11 wins today.
$10 moneyline bet on the Pelicans.
IND (-1) at MIA (1)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 210)
Predicted Score: IND 103 – MIA 107
MIN (-1) at DAL (1)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 212.5 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: MIN 108 – DAL 109
PHX (-6.5) at LAL (6.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 220 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: PHX 105 – LAL 107
Washington Capitals (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (115)
Pick: Bet $10 Washington
Notes: So the Flyers have not completely sucked lately. They have won 4 of 5 games and their lone loss was a close one to the Canadiens. They host a Capitals team that is slumping a bit right now.
But I’m still backing Washington here.
Washington is 5th in goals scored per game and 6th in goals against. Based on the expected goals difference, they were bound to hit a lull to balance out some lucky shots going in.
Still, lull or not, their offense is much better than Philly’s. If the Philly goaltending shows any cracks here, Washington will take advantage.
$10 bet on the Capitals.
Tampa Bay Lightning (115) at Vegas Golden Knights (-135)
Pick: Lean Vegas