Degen Show (12/23/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/23/21
NFL Week 16 DFS
Week 15 Recap
My two big whiffs that kept me out of the money this week were Ja’Marr Chase with 0.8 points and the Arizona defense with 3 points. I was tempted to take Dallas’ defense and it could have paid off.
If you had Tyler Huntley and Mark Andrews stacked, you probably won this past week.
In my PPR league, the season came to an end for me. But at least I won and ended up in a jumbled mess of 7-8 teams in my league. I look forward to my high draft pick next year.
QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR – $7900) – Stafford will look to put up some numbers against a Minnesota defense that allows QBs to put up numbers. He’s spent most of his career throwing against the Vikings so hopefully he remembers he’s not in a Lions uniform anymore.
WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR – $9800) – I’ll stack Stafford with Cooper Kupp and then dig through my couch for change to pay for other players later. Kupp is the best wide receiver in football at the moment and I don’t know if the Vikings’ defense can contain him.
RB: James Robinson (JAX – $8200) – Robinson is the featured back once again in Jacksonville and he’s taking on a Jets team that is 30th in opponent’s rushing yards allowed. His knee is a bit banged up but he should go out there this week.
RB: David Montgomery (CHI – $6600) – Montgomery has been in a bit of a lull the past 2 weeks but still a decent fantasy option. I think his value increases a but this week against a Seattle defense that can be run on.
QB: Cam Newton (CAR – $7200) – Newton had a pretty good fantasy game last week. But as we’ve stated, Tampa will be out for blood this week and I don’t envy Mr. Newton at all.
RB: Chuba Hubbard (CAR – $5500) – In keeping with my Carolina theme, Hubbard should be a sit this week for sure. Tampa is already stellar against the run so Hubbard could end up with negative yardage this week as the Bucs look to straight up murder the Panthers.
RB: Darrell Henderson (LAR – $6900) – Henderson has been platooned with Sony Michel so both of their fantasy values are put into question. The Rams need to run the ball but guessing who is the featured back this week is too much of a risk.
WR: Chase Claypool (PIT – $5900) – Coming off a stinker against the Titans last week, there is hope Claypool bounces back this week. I don’t share in that hope. The Chiefs’ defense has been good and will focus on taking on Claypool out.
DEF: Minnesota Vikings ($3600) – I am presuming the Rams put up some numbers this week and as such, I suggest fading the Vikings defense.
RB: Javonte Williams (DEN – $6300) – This dude has been really fucking good the past month. Vegas is 25th against the run this season and I like Williams to take it to them this week.
WR: Scotty Miller (TB – $4900) – The Bucs are beset with wide receiver injuries and Brady needs to throw to someone.
TE: Noah Fant (DEN – $5600) – Keeping with my fading of the Raiders, Noah Fant did well against the Raiders in October – posting his highest fantasy total of the season. I am looking for him to repeat that performance this week.
DEF: Jacksonville Jaguars ($4000) – Ah screw it. The Jaguars’ defense has sucked this season. But maybe they come alive against the Jets.
NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football
San Francisco (-3) vs. Tennessee (3)
Spread: Bet $50 Tennessee
Total: Lean Over 44
Predicted Score: San Francisco 23 – Tennessee 24 (47)
Notes: The Titans entered into November with a clear lead in the AFC South. At 8-2, it also seemed like they could battle for the top seed in the AFC.
And then they lost Derek Henry and it all started to spiral.
The Titans have gone 1-3 over their last 4 games. They have lost to Houston, New England and Pittsburgh. Their lone win was a shutout over the Jaguars.
Conversely, the Niners have won 4 of 5 games and have their sights set on locking into a playoff spot in the NFC. Jimmy G. has been playing very well, their running game is legit and their defense has been one of the best lately.
Let’s go back to the Titans though. I made the comment that since losing Henry they’ve been on a downward trend. It’s a true statement but also not accurate.
Yes, they have lost since losing him – but I don’t think that’s the issue. The Titans have actually run for the ball better since losing Henry. The issue has been other injuries to that offense that has limited Tannehill’s production.
Right now, its hard to argue that the Niners are playing like the better team. We all liked San Francisco in the preseason so its no surprise they turned things around.
I just don’t like them on a short week, on the road and against a team that a month ago we felt could make a deep run in the AFC.
$50 bet on the Titans at home getting these points.
NOP (-5.5) at ORL (5.5)
Pick: Bet $10 NOP ML
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: NOP 111 – ORL 105
Notes: The Pelicans have won 3 games in a row after beating the Blazers a few night ago. They hit the road to Orlando to play a Magic team coming off a good win yesterday.
That was Orlando’s second win in a row and it increased their record to 7-25 on the year. I think the streak ends there.
The Pelicans are the healthier team despite being without Jonas Valanciunas. The Pelicans’ offensive efficiency continues to improve and their shooting has been red hot lately.
I’ve been making some money betting on the Pelicans lately and the sports books are starting to catch up. I still think there is some value in the moneyline on them today.
$10 moneyline bet on New Orleans.
CHA (2.5) at DEN (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CHA ML
Total: 228 (Lean over – 233)
Predicted Score: CHA 117 – DEN 116
Notes: I whiffed on Denver last night and I’ll probably whiff on fading them today. I just like the Hornets getting a plus line here.
Charlotte has not played well lately – losing 4 of 5. This is also their 6th road game in a row so there is some road weariness. But they are healthy and have enough talent to hang with Denver.
Because Denver is not healthy. In fact, after making a bad Star Trek reference yesterday, Bones Hyland actually ended up needing a doctor as he injured his ankle last night.
Denver’s offense was stagnant and overall, this team looked uninspired against the Thunder.
Maybe they turn it into gear tonight but the value is still on Charlotte.
$10 moneyline bet on the Hornets.
WAS (-1) at NYK (1)
Pick: Bet $10 NYK ML
Total: 210.5 (Lean Under – 210)
Predicted Score: WAS 100 – NYK 110
Notes: The Wizards started this season off redhot and are now ice cold. They are 16-15 on the season and only 8-11 on the road.
They are coming off a surprise win over the Jazz a few days ago but that was one of their 2 wins the past few weeks.
The Knicks were another team that started off hot but cooled down. Injuries really did a number on them but its always worth noting how bad their defense has been this season.
It’s the main reason that Kemba fell out of favor with Thibs. And as a Celtics fan, yeah, I can attest to Kemba’s lack of defensive tenacity.
New York is only 6-10 at home this season – which is a far cry from the nearly unbeatable team we saw at MSG last season. I think they can improve that to 7 home wins after tonight.
Not because they are playing well right now – just that they are playing better than Washington.
$10 moneyline bet on the Knicks.
ATL (9.5) at PHI (-9.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 214.5 (Lean Under – 210)
Predicted Score: ATL 107 – PHI 103
HOU (8.5) at IND (-8.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: HOU 111 – IND 118
DET (10) at MIA (-10)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 203.5 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: DET 100 – MIA 114
MIL (-5) at DAL (5)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: MIL 108 – DAL 111
OKC (15) at PHX (-15)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 214.5 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: OKC 102 – PHX 112
MIN (11.5) at UTA (-11.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 225 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: MIN 111 – UTA 112
MEM (6) at GSW (-6)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: MEM 108 – GSW 107
SAS (1) at LAL (-1)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: SAS 114 – LAL 105