Degen Show (12/24/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/24/21
NFL Week 16
Detroit (5.5) vs. Atlanta (-5.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Detroit
Total: Lean Under 43
Predicted Score: Detroit 18 – Atlanta 19 (37)
Notes: How many times do I need to be burned by the Lions before I stop betting them? Jared Goff, why can’t I quit you?
Well, I might not have a choice this week since Goff ended up on the Covid list and might not play this one. That could mean a Tim Boyle sighting once again this week.
Emboldened by their big win over the Cardinals last week, Detroit will hit the road to play an Atlanta team that is still technically in the playoff hunt. While they could be missing Goff, they might get De’Andre Swift back.
The Falcons are coming off a loss to the Niners. They are a team that seems to be able to beat the sub .500 teams in the league but look well overmatched by the better ones.
The Lions, of course, are sub .500. But they are also a competitive team. Dan Campbell has this team playing above their heads. But that has not resulted in a road win just yet.
I don’t think they get a road win this week but should be able to keep it close.
$50 bet on the Lions.
Tampa Bay (-10) vs. Carolina (10)
Spread: Bet $50 Tampa Bay
Total: Lean Over 42.5
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 29 – Carolina 19 (48)
Notes: After being shutout last week, we all collectively said, “I feel bad for the team they play next week.”
Well, that team is the Carolina Panthers. And yeah, I feel bad for them.
Carolina has lost 4 games in a row – coinciding with the return of Cam Newton. Newton had hoped to secure his future once again with the franchise he started with – but as of now, he might be a nomad, maybe a backup or an early retiree after his play this season.
Cam is coming off a pretty decent game from last week but the Bills still ended up beating the Panthers by double-digits.
The Bucs are dealing with a slew of wide receiver injuries and the Carolina defense isn’t that bad. But watching Josh Allen toss 3 TDs on them last week leads me to believe that Brady could have a big day.
The Bucs can secure the NFC South with a win this week and I expect that to happen. 10 seems like a big number and I admit, its close for me. And divisional games are weird.
I just think the Bucs will have something extra this week in store for Carolina.
$50 bet on the Bucs.
Jacksonville (1) vs. NY Jets (-1)
Spread: Bet $50 NY Jets
Total: Lean Under 41.5
Predicted Score: Jacksonville 15 – NY Jets 20 (35)
Notes: In possibly the worst matchup since last week when the Jaguars played the Texans, the Jets will host Jacksonville to fight for draft positioning.
Right now, the Jaguars have that top pick in their sights. The Jets seem less focused on a draft pick and more in setting up a culture of winning for the future.
Robert Saleh seems to be a great fit for an organization that has fucked up their coaching situations in the past. He’s young enough to relate to the players but he’s a fiery dude that can chew out a player for fucking up.
And in his first season, he’s had to do a lot of that. But we’ve seen some competitive football from his Jets.
They don’t have the talent but they were able to hang with the Dolphins last week in Miami and managed to beat the same Texans team that humiliated the Jags last week.
Maybe the post-coach bump comes this week instead and Jacksonville comes out strong. Or maybe the Jets give their fans a nice Christmas present at the Meadowlands.
I’m banking on the latter.
$50 bet on the Jets.
LA Chargers (-10.5) vs. Houston (10.5)
Spread: Bet $50 LA Chargers
Total: Lean Under 46
Predicted Score: LA Chargers 29 – Houston 15 (44)
Notes: Speaking of Houston, they are a double-digit dog this week. While I am always apprehensive of betting on a double-digit road favorite, when the opposing team is the Texans, it does make it easier.
Sure, the Chargers like to Charger things up. And they will look to shake off their OT loss to the Chiefs last week – doing so without dynamic running back Austin Ekeler.
Maybe. Ekeler could still play if he gets out of COVID protocols. If he can’t go, Justin Jackson will get the start in the backfield.
One thing to keep an eye out on is the play of rookie QB Davis Mills for Houston. Earlier in the season, he was the best rookie QB for a bit. He slumped, Tyrod Taylor came back and Mills ended up on the bench.
But now Tyrod is on the bench and Mills has been playing quite well – 550 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT his past 2 weeks. Granted, that was Jacksonville and Seattle defenses he shredded. But still, not too bad for a rookie class that has some questionable QBs so far.
Anyway, I think Justin Herbert is in for a big week and the Chargers should get a very big win. I have them winning by 2 TDs so I hope I am right.
$50 bet on the Chargers.
Washington (10) vs. Dallas (-10)
Spread: Bet $50 Washington
Total: Lean Under 47
Predicted Score: Washington 20 – Dallas 27 (47)
Notes: The Cowboys return home after 3 weeks on the road. All 3 road games were wins – one of them over the Football Team two weeks ago.
The Football Club has lost 2 in a row – both divisional games. In fact, the NFC East is in a carousel of games against each other from here on out.
Dallas got the win over the Giants last week and their defense flexed on a feeble Giants’ offense. The Dallas offense? Still looks a bit off.
And they won’t get an easy time this week against the Washington defense. This team dealt with a bunch of COVID issues last week and should be a bit back to sorts this week.
I don’t think they can win this one – but I think they can keep it closer than this line.
$50 bet on the Washington Football Organization.
Cleveland (7.5) vs. Green Bay (-7.5)
Spread: Lean Cleveland
Total: Lean Under 46
Predicted Score: Cleveland 19 – Green Bay 25 (44)
Indianapolis (1) vs. Arizona (-1)
Spread: Lean Indianapolis
Total: Lean Over 48.5
Predicted Score: Indianapolis 27 – Arizona 25 (52)
LA Rams (-3.5) vs. Minnesota (3.5)
Spread: Lean Minnesota
Total: Lean Over 48.5
Predicted Score: LA Rams 28 – Minnesota 27 (55)
NY Giants (10) vs. Philadelphia (-10)
Spread: Lean Philadelphia
Total: Lean Over 40.5
Predicted Score: NY Giants 17 – Philadelphia 28 (45)
Buffalo (2) vs. New England (-2)
Spread: Lean Buffalo
Total: Lean Over 43.5
Predicted Score: Buffalo 27 – New England 26 (53)
Baltimore (3) vs. Cincinnati (-3)
Spread: Lean Baltimore
Total: Lean Over 45
Predicted Score: Baltimore 24 – Cincinnati 24 (48)
Chicago (6.5) vs. Seattle (-6.5)
Spread: Lean Chicago
Total: Lean Under 42.5
Predicted Score: Chicago 20 – Seattle 21 (41)
Denver (1) vs. Las Vegas (-1)
Spread: Lean Denver
Total: Lean Under 41
Predicted Score: Denver 21 – Las Vegas 20 (41)
Pittsburgh (8.5) vs. Kansas City (-8.5)
Spread: Lean Pittsburgh
Total: Lean Over 45
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 20 – Kansas City 28 (48)