Degen Show (12/27/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/27/21
Max’s Week 16 Touchdown
Point 1: Let’s Talk About Saturday
We had two games on Saturday and they were two of the more interesting ones of the weekend.
First up, Baker Mayfield threw 3 legit INTs and then a 4th questionable one that ended the game for the Browns. The Packers edged out a 24-22 win over Cleveland – improving their record to 12-3.
The Browns had a chance to win the game if Baker didn’t throw that last INT that could have been a result of defensive holding.
Either way, the fact that Green Bay only won by 2 points, over the Browns, in Lambeau while Baker threw 4 INTs is astounding. Should have been a blowout for sure.
Another weird part of this game was Brett Favre’s begrudging congratulations to Aaron Rodgers breaking his Packers’ TD record.
If you want some cringe, go find that video and feel the awkwardness.
The second Saturday game saw the Cardinals lose their third straight game while the surging Colts have won 6 of their last 7 games.
Arizona once had the NFC West all to themselves. Now, it’s going to come down to the final few weeks to decide.
Point 2: That’s Because the Rams Won Again
The Rams went on the road to Minnesota and beat the Vikings 30-23. Matt Stafford didn’t have one of his best games but Sony Michel could not be stopped – racking up 131 yards and a TD.
Kirk had himself a good game and Justin Jefferson broke OBJ’s previous record of the most receiving yards through two seasons.
But it was OBJ dancing in the endzone as he caught a TD and the Rams got the win.
For LA, it does clinch them a playoff spot and at 11-4, puts them in the lead for the NFC West.
For Minnesota, it drops them out of the playoffs for now and it could get worse if the Saints win tonight.
Point 3: Yeah, Tampa Was Pissed
The Bucs beat up on the hapless Panthers – winning the game 32-6. Cam Newton and Sam Darnold split reps – with Darnold easily outperforming Cam.
Still, neither could do much as the Bucs’ defense was stifling all day. Darnold was booed, Rhule was booed and even chants of fire Rhule echoed through the Bank of America stadium.
Tampa clinched the NFC South with the win – the Bucs’ first division title since 2007. TB12 sales stocks were once again on the rise after this one.
Point 4: Who Had Rex Burkhead this week in DFS?
The Houston running back ran for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Texans routed the Chargers 41-29. The win improved Houston’s record to 4-11 and dropped the Chargers to 8-7
You get the feel of the “same old Chargers” with this team. Which makes no sense. I mean, it’s a different coach, different QB and different city. But the spirt of San Diego runs deep with this team.
Point 5: NFC Playoff Picture Coming into Focus
5 of the 7 spots in the NFC are clinched as the Packers, Bucs, Cowboys, Rams and Cardinals are all in. The final few spots look to go to either the Niners, the Eagles, the Saints, the Vikings or the Falcons.
The Niners lost on Thursday night football while the Eagles and Falcons each got wins yesterday.
San Francisco closes out the season with the Texans and Rams. The Eagles get the Football Club and the Cowboys.
The Saints need to beat the Dolphins tonight and then the road gets easier with the Panthers and Falcons. The Falcons also have a matchup next week against the Bills – making it a hard road for them.
The Vikings need to head to Lambeau next week to try and beat the Packers again before closing out against Chicago.
So no guarantees in this group but at least it’s coming together. Unlike the AFC.
Point 6: The AFC is Still a Mess
The Chiefs are the only team with a playoff spot so far – clinching the AFC West once again. Their 36-10 dismantling of the Steelers resulted in the game being turned off locally for me so I could watch a “more competitive one.”
That one ended up being the Raiders beating the Broncos – improving Vegas’ playoff chances while reducing Denver’s.
The Bills overtook the AFC East by beating the Patriots 33-21. Josh Allen had a hell of a game against New England’s defense as the Pats have now lost 2 in a row with the Jaguars and Dolphins left on their schedule.
The Bengals saw a career day by Joe Burrow as they further secured their hold on the AFC North. Cincinnati has a tough road ahead with the Chiefs next week and the Browns in their final game.
But still, they have a clear advantage over the slumping Ravens who look to get healthy as they face the Rams next week and close out against division rival Pittsburgh.
The Steelers still have a longshot at a playoff spot but they would need to win two division games over the next two weeks to have a chance.
Extra Point: The KOD Cashed
I listened to the Sunday show as Maxy bet against the KOD. Normally, it’s a sound play and yes, even down to the last play there was a chance we could lose. But man, the fucking Jaguars blow.
The Jets were missing half of the defensive starters and still managed to hold Jacksonville to 21 points.
It was the 4th time this season the Jags scored 20 or more points and part of the problem was losing James Robinson with an Achilles injury.
Maybe Urban Meyer was right to bench Robinson. He must have known his Achilles was having issues, Maybe he kicked him there a few weeks ago.
Anyway, the Jags suck. the Jets suck too but they still got the win and the KOD cashed out. Take that Maxy!
And that’s Max’s Week 16 touchdown.
NFL Monday Night Football
Miami (-3) vs. New Orleans (3)
Spread: Lean New Orleans
Total: Lean Over 37
Predicted Score: Miami 20 – New Orleans 22 (42)
Notes: Things got so bad for the Saints at QB that they called both Drew Brees and Philip Rivers to see if they were interested in suiting up for Monday Night Football. They politely declined.
They didn’t get so desperate as to give Jay Cutler a call. I bet you his wife would have kicked his ass off the couch and made him head to New Orleans to suit up.
No, instead they have rookie Ian Book – a guy Panther probably knows a thing or two about. He should be right at home wearing a gold helmet this week.
As the most winningest QB in Notre Dame history, he’s etched in history with legends such as Ron Powlus and Brady Quinn.
Book gets the nod against a Miami team that has won 6 games in a row and sits at 7-7 – with an eye on a playoff spot. He will have veteran Blake Bortles to back him up and if things really go wrong, Alvin Kamara is the emergency QB.
That actually might make the most sense. They just shelled out a ton of money for Taysum Hill to be a utility knife out there so they may as well get more ROI on Kamara’s contract too.
There’s too many unknowns in this game for it to be bettable. On the surface, its easy to say the Dolphins will win – but they do struggle to score at times.
And they got lazy against the Jets last week.
I’m going to lean the Saints at home getting the points.
UTA (-7.5) at SAS (7.5)
Pick: Bet $10 SAS ML
Total: 228.5 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: UTA 116 – SAS 118
Notes: The Spurs have won 4 of their last 5 and are slowly creeping towards being a .500 team again.
They get the unenviable task of hosting one of the best teams in the league tonight as Utah has won 3 in a row to improve to 23-9 on the season.
The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell tonight – which should give San Antonio a chance in this one. The Spurs will be without their best player too as Dejounte Murray is slated to miss tis game.
San Antonio has been playing some very good defense as of late – which must be making Popovich happy.
Their defensive efficiency and opponent’s effective field goal % are the best in the league over the past week.
So if there is a value play today of a possible upset, I think this could be the one.
$10 moneyline bet on the Spurs.
BKN (-4.5) at LAC (4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 BKN ML
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: BKN 111 – LAC 106
Notes: The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving for this game. How will they exist without him?
But seriously, Kevin Durant is out tonight so it means that James Harden will need to lead the way alongside a band of third stringers. After playing in Houston the past few years, he’s used to that.
The Nets take on a Clippers team that also looks like a D-League roster. Paul George is now added to the scrap heap as he’s dealing with an elbow injury.
You know that Kawhi is just hanging back collecting a paycheck, watching the carnage unfold and seeing how he can sign with the Warriors someday.
For this game, though, I think the Nets can grab the win. With no PG, I just don’t like this Clippers roster. And Harden should be enough for Brooklyn to get it tonight.
$10 moneyline bet on the Nets.
BOS (-8.5) at MIN (8.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: BOS 108 – MIN 112
HOU (6) at CHA (-6)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 236.5 (Lean Under – 231)
Predicted Score: HOU 115 – CHA 116
CHI (-6.5) at ATL (6.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: CHI 119 – ATL 110
MEM (8.5) at PHX (-8.5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 219 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: MEM 110 – PHX 110
DAL (-1.5) at POR (1.5)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: DAL 110 – POR 107