Degen Show (12/28/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/28/21
WAS (6.5) at MIA (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $15 MIA ML
Total: 210.5 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: WAS 103 – MIA 111
Notes: Miami is still dealing with a slew of critical injuries as Bam Adebayo remains out and now Kyle Lowry joins the injury list.
One player that is available for Miami is Jimmy Butler. And with him out there, there’s always a chance for the Heat to win.
Add to the mix that Washington’s Bradley Beal will be out for today’s game and this is looking like a Miami win.
The Heat have won 4 of 5 games and are 11-4 at home this season. The Wizards lost to the Sixers two days ago – dropping them to 9-11 on the road.
Over the past two weeks, the Heat have been the 6th best shooting team in basketball – posting a 54.4% effective FG%.
But almost as important, their defensive efficiency ranks 2nd in the league during that span.
I like Miami to get the win today and probably even cover. But I’ll take the moneyline.
$15 moneyline bet on the Heat.
PHI (-6.5) at TOR (6.5)
Pick: Bet $10 TOR ML
Total: 211.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: PHI 107 – TOR 114
Notes: Toronto is a team that has been hit hard with the Covid bug. Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby will be out for tonight’s game.
However, it does seem like Pascal Siakim, Gary Trent Jr. and Khem Birch will be available for the game tonight. They have missed some time so conditioning could be an issue.
Philly, for the most part, has not been impacted by the Covid protocols but they will be missing Shake Milton, Danny Green and Andre Drummond today.
The Sixers are coming off that aforementioned win over the Wizards. It improved their road record to 11-8 on the year. Joel Embiid had 36 points and 13 rebounds to lead the way.
The Raptors are coming off a 45 point blowout loss to the Cavs. But prior to that, they had been playing some pretty good basketball.
I think the value is on Toronto here to get the win.
So a $10 moneyline bet on the Raptors.
DEN (7.5) at GSW (-7.5)
Pick: Bet $20 GSW ML
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: DEN 106 – GSW 110
Notes: One of the surprising elements to the Warriors winning ways has been their depth this season. Well, Covid has taken a bite out of that recently.
Andre Iguodala, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green and Damion Lee will be out today. But as long as Steph Curry is available, the Warriors are still a dangerous team.
For Denver, there are no significant Covid issues on the team but Aaron Gordon is questionable with a hamstring issue.
For a team already missing scoring from Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, losing anything else could be disastrous.
The Nuggets are coming off a road win over the Clippers that improved their road record to 8-10 on the season. Golden State was won 4 of 5 games. They are 27-6 on the season and 16-2 at home.
While I am struggling to get Golden State to cover this one, I do have them winning enough times to warrant a moneyline bet.
Upping this up to a $20 moneyline bet on the Warriors.
OKC (5.5) at SAC (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $10 OKC ML
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: OKC 110 – SAC 106
Notes: If you happened to miss it, OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back and he’s playing some amazing basketball.
And he’s doing it while emulating the good aspects of James Harden’s game.
Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring at a rate of 0.96 points per isolation possession and was named one of the NBA players of the week.
The Thunder were 3-1 in that span while he averaged 27.5 points, 7 assists and 6.3 rebounds per game.
As for the Kings, they have lost 3 in a row and got chewed out by Alvin Gentry after their last game.
Their lack of effort transcends coaching it seems and a roster shakeup is certainly bound to happen this year.
I like how OKC is playing right now and Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player on the court in this game.
So a $10 moneyline bet on the Thunder.
MIL (-12.5) at ORL (12.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: MIL 108 – ORL 105
CLE (-5.5) at NOP (5.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: CLE 110 – NOP 106
NYK (-4.5) at MIN (4.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 212.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: NYK 107 – MIN 109
LAL (-5) at HOU (5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: LAL 111 – HOU 109
Vegas Golden Knights (-140) at Los Angeles Kings (115)
Pick: Bet $10 Vegas
Notes: The Golden Knights head to LA to take on the Kings for the first time this season. Prior to the extended holiday break, both teams were playing some good hockey.
The Kings, in fact, are creeping up on a playoff spot. But playing an almost complete Golden Knights team is a task that could prove to be too much for them.
The way for the Kings to win this one is to prevent the high danger shots by Vegas and exploit the Golden Knights’ biggest weakness: their goalie situation.
Robin Lehner has not been stellar this year and in fact, he’s injured right now so an even more unreliable Laurent Brossoit might end up starting today.
The Kings are dealing with some key losses because of Covid protocols but have some great offensive talent. That talent should be producing even more based on their expected goals.
The Kings’ goalie situation has been a bright spot for them as Jonathan Quick is having a bounce back season so far.
Still, I think the Vegas offense will prove too much for the Kings tonight and the Golden Knights will get the win.
$10 bet on Vegas.
Montreal Canadiens (215) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-265)
Pick: Lean Tampa Bay
Arizona Coyotes (195) at San Jose Sharks (-240)
Pick: Lean San Jose