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Degen Show (12/29/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 12/29/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA totals show, NHL win totals episode, or NFL win totals one too.
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/29/21
NBA
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CHA (2.5) at IND (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 ML IND
Total: 227.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: CHA 113 – IND 116
Notes: Two teams that, as of yet, have not been dealt any serious blows from Covid protocols.
Charlotte has won two games in a row – including a road win over Denver. However, their road play has not been stellar this year.
They are 9-13 with a road effective field goal % that is 4% lower than at home.
Still, this is an excellent shooting team as they lead the league un 3 point % and are 3rd in 3 pointers made per game.
If they are hitting their shots, they are a tough team to beat.
Indiana really does not have anything special about them. They are the epitome of an average team in almost every category.
Yet despite that, they are 11-7 at home and are 5-1 over their last 5 home games.
This should be a close one but I think Indy grabs the win tonight.
$10 moneyline bet on the Pacers.
UTA (-6.5) at POR (6.5)
Pick: Bet $15 UTA ML
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: UTA 115 – POR 109
Notes: Donovan Mitchell remains out for the Jazz yet here they are, continuing to win games. They beat the Spurs two days ago to increase their winning streak to 4 games.
Can they continue to win without Mitchell out of their lineup? Possibly.
When you talk about team depth, the Jazz are tops in that conversation.
Other than Mitchell and Gobert, this team has Bojan Bogdanovich, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, Hassan Whiteside, Rudy Gay, and Jordan Clarkson.
For Portland, they received some good news that CJ McCollum is close to returning. But he’s not back today.
And the Blazers have some other key injuries to deal with.
I’ve made money fading Portland and hoping that trend continues today.
$10 moneyline bet on Utah.
Leans
LAC (5.5) at BOS (-5.5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 211.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: LAC 105 – BOS 108
NYK (-6.5) at DET (6.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 206.5 (Lean Over – 211)
Predicted Score: NYK 108 – DET 103
ATL (8.5) at CHI (-8.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: ATL 107 – CHI 113
LAL (4.5) at MEM (-4.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: LAL 107 – MEM 110
MIA (3.5) at SAS (-3.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: MIA 110 – SAS 111
OKC (14.5) at PHX (-14.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 216.5 (Lean Over – 218)
Predicted Score: OKC 106 – PHX 112
DAL (-1.5) at SAC (1.5)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: DAL 114 – SAC 110
NHL
Nashville Predators (130) at Washington Capitals (-150)
Pick: Bet $10 Nashville
Notes: Prior to the break, the Predators were one of the hottest teams in hockey. Part of that is some sensational play on the road.
Washington had been slumping a bit lately and have struggled to win games in OT. Looking at their advanced metrics, there are some concerning signs as well.
This is a team that ranks 5th in goals per game but 10th in expected goals for.
That’s a 14 goal difference between what they have scored and what they should have scored based on shot quality.
As for goals against, there is a 9 goal difference there – making the Capitals expected goals difference +23.
Add in the fact that they have the highest PDO in the league and there should be some regression over the course of the season.
Nashville, on the other hand, should get their offense going based on their shot selection.
They already have so very good goaltending so if the offense does come alive, this is a dangerous team.
So yeah, I’m jumping on the Predators here with a plus line.
$10 bet on Nashville.
Vancouver Canucks (100) at Anaheim Ducks (-120)
Pick: Bet $10 Anaheim
Notes: Vancouver had won 6 games in row prior to their extended break. They have not played since December 16th so expect some rust for sure.
Anaheim has been off for 9 days – but this could have been a blessing.
They were slumping a bit and had just played 4 games in 6 days prior to their break.
So maybe rest is what they need to get back to their winning ways.
Anaheim is 10-4-3 at home this season and are one of the more balanced teams in the league when it comes to offense and defense.
They also have a lower PDO – meaning they could see some improvement as the season goes on.
They also rank 26th in expected goal differential.
That means that they get good shots but have not converted as often as they should and that some goals they have given up had some luck on the side of their opponents.
They are a winning team but could be a contender if those metrics move more towards the norm.
I like the Ducks to come strong out of this break and get a win.
$10 bet on Anaheim.
Leans
New Jersey Devils (-130) at Buffalo Sabres (110)
Pick: Lean New Jersey
New York Rangers (140) at Florida Panthers (-160)
Pick: Lean Florida
Edmonton Oilers (110) at St. Louis Blues (-130)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers (115) at Seattle Kraken (-135)
Pick: Lean Seattle
