Degen Show (12/30/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/30/21
NFL Week 17 DFS
Week 16 Recap
The low spots for me this past week was taking Stafford at QB, James Robinson going down with an injury, Scotty Miller getting a goose egg and the Jags’ defense not containing the offensive might of the Jets.
Where I went right was picking Cooper Kupp, David Montgomery, and Tee Higgins.
Winning teams usually had a combo of those guys mixed in with Joe Burrow, Mark Andrews and Rex Burkhead.
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA – $6700) – The Dolphins need to win out to make the playoffs. Tua has had a great run and is playing a Titans’ defense that can be exploited.
WR: Jaylen Waddle (MIA – $7000) – I am going to stack Tua with Jaylen Waddle – who has been very good all season. He’s only had a handful of low production games so the risk is lower on taking him,
WR: Christian Kirk (ARZ – $6400) – He had a so-so week against the Colts last week, but had been doing well before that replacing Hopkins as Murray’s go-to target. Dallas’ defense has been markedly better – but that’s against the Saints, Giants and Football Club.
RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND – $10000) – The Raiders’ rush defense has been much better lately and Taylor is coming off a average game by his standards. So some risk in paying this much money for a player.
But he continues to produce and I found savings elsewhere so I’ll pay for the best healthy running back in the game.
RB: Damien Harris (NE – $7400) – I also love Damien Harris, fresh off his shredding of Buffalo, to destroy the Jags’ defense this week.
DEF: New England ($5000) – Speaking of the Jags, I am also going to take the New England defense to keep Trevor and now James Robinson-less Jacksonville offense at bay.
QB: Cam Newton (CAR – $6600) and Sam Darnold (CAR – $6600) – Stuck in a platoon at QB, and not playing good football anyway, these guys should be avoided for sure.
WR: DJ Moore (CAR – $6400) – And might as well throw poor DJ Moore into the mix here too.
RB: Josh Jacobs (LVR – $6600) – Facing a touch defense this week and seeing his pass targets decrease, I think Jacobs is a guy to pass up this week.
DEF: Chiefs ($4100) and Bengals ($3400) – I’m just saying, as much as I love the Chiefs’ defense, I would not pay for it against Joe Burrow. If they stop him, nominate Spags for D-Coordinator of the year.
RB: Ronald Jones Jr. (TB – $7000) – He’s done well filling in for Fournette. The apprehension here is that Brady loves to carve up the Jets – but this game could be out of hand and Jones will need to kill the clock.
WR: Braxton Berrios (NYJ – $5300) – Berrios has picked up his production the last few weeks and could have a breakout game against a Tampa Bay secondary that has gotten better – but still has some holes.
TE: Gerald Everett (SEA – $5200) – Everett has become Wilson’s security blanket the past 2 weeks and should get some nice looks against the Lions.
CLE (2.5) at WAS (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE ML
Total: 212.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: CLE 115 – WAS 101
Notes: The Cavs got the bad news that Ricky Rubio will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL. He provided veteran leadership in the locker room and was producing out on the court.
The Cavs have some other issues as Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland are both in Covid protocols.
For Washington, Bradley Beal and a slew of other players are in protocols as well.
But this is the NBA right now.
The Cavs are the better team here. And they have more depth. The loss of Allen, Garland and Rubio sucks – but they still have the depth to be competitive and win some games,
$10 moneyline bet on the Cavs.
PHI (4) at BKN (-4)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: PHI 107 – BKN 106
MIL (-12.5) at ORL (12.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 216.5 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: MIL 112 – ORL 105
GSW (-5) at DEN (5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 212.5 (Lean Over – 218)
Predicted Score: GSW 111 – DEN 107
Calgary Flames (-140) at Seattle Kraken (120)
Pick: Bet $10 Calgary
Notes: Lord knows I have been wrong on many Kraken games this season. Prior to the break, they were losing a lot of games and they picked that back up in yesterday’s loss.
The Flames were also slumping badly before the break – losing 4 games in a row. But I am hoping the break was good for them as they are relatively healthy now.
$10 bet on Calgary.
Philadelphia Flyers (115) at San Jose Sharks (-135)
Pick: Bet $10 San Jose
Notes: The Flyers played yesterday and got a win over the aforementioned Kraken. Martin Jones was in goal and stopped 34 shots.
Jones might be playing in a back-to-back as Carter Hart is out on Covid protocols. I think that gives the Sharks a bit of an edge here.
The Sharks are coming off a win from two days ago. Their goaltending was a major issue but they were able to put up enough offense against the Coyotes to get the win.
I am hoping they can get some more solid defense today and get to a tired Jones in Philly’s goal.
$10 bet on the Sharks.
Tampa Bay Lightning (115) at Florida Panthers (-135)
Pick: Lean Florida
Nashville Predators (-125) at Columbus Blue Jackets (105)
Pick: Lean Nashville
Montreal Canadiens (250) at Carolina Hurricanes (-320)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Buffalo Sabres (165) at New York Islanders (-200)
Pick: Lean New York
Vancouver Canucks (115) at Los Angeles Kings (-135)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles