Degen Show (12/6/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 12/6/21
Max’s Week 13 Touchdown
Point 1: Winless No More
The Detroit Lions got their first win of the season – beating division rival Minnesota in the process. Detroit won 29-27 with a last second TD from Jared Goff.
I’m not going to lie. But this might have been Goff’s best moment of his career. Yeah, yeah, yeah, losing in the Super Bowl to Tom Brady might be up there. But this or that epic game against the Chiefs are probably top that.
And let’s not forget it was his first ever career win that wasn’t coached by Sean McVay.
For the Vikings, they are now 5-7 and star wide receiver, Adam Thielen, left the game with an ankle injury. That was already on top of Dalvin Cook being banged up.
Mike Zimmer will not make it through the season. And I’m surprised he was not fired right after the game.
Point 2: Lamar’s Missed Deuce
Lamar Jackson made news with his midgame deuce dropping this season but now he’s dealing with a missed deuce that resulted in a loss to division rival Pittsburgh yesterday.
After hitting Sammy Watkins with a TD with 12 seconds left, Lamar Jackson failed on the two point conversion – slightly overthrowing Mark Andrews. Lamar was being rushed by TJ Watt and Andrews probably should have still caught it.
I actually don’t hate the call. Going for the win is awesome and I’m not going to second guess just because it failed.
But the fact that they were in that position to begin with speaks volumes to why we have lack of faith in this team.
They are still 8-4 and with the loss by the Bengals this week, they still have the lone top spot in the AFC North. But man, this is a team that just does not scare me to make a Super Bowl run.
Point 3: Jimmy G Missed the 3
Just talked about Lamar missing 2 points, well Jimmy came short by 3 yards of tying it up with Seattle as the Niners lost 30-23.
The Seahawks were on the verge of closing it out when a fumble at their 2 yard line gave the Niners a chance. Jimmy G marched 95 yards up the field but was not able to get the game tying TD.
Division dogs were 3-3 on the day – emphasizing the point about how tough these games can be to bet.
Point 4: “Sam Darnold” had a Good Day
If you listened to the Sunday show, you would have heard Panther accidentally call Matt Stafford by the name Sam Darnold. I have mistakenly called him Sam Bradford and even Jared Goff.
Because all of these guys, with similar names, can produce some real stinkers at times.
Well, this version of Darnold showed up this week – throwing for 295 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs. Now yes, it was against the fucking Jaguars. But this is also a team that let up on the Texans not too long ago.
This Rams team needed a win. They got the win. And when they were up 30, they still went for another TD – with Stafford hitting OBJ for the second straight week.
Sony Michel filled in nicely at running back and Cooper Kupp led the way in the air as Los Angeles improved to 8-4 on the year. The Rams head to Arizona for the Monday night game next week in an important measuring stick game.
Point 5: A Gardner in the Garden State
Gardner Minshew threw for 242 yards and 2 TDs as the Eagles bounced back from a loss in New Jersey last week to get a win in New Jersey this week. Miles Sanders also chipped in – running for 120 yards as the Eagles beat the Jets 33-18.
With that win, and the Vikings loss, the Eagles are trying to leapfrog the Niners and the Football Club to get that 6th seed in the playoffs.
The Football Club kicked a game winning field goal to take down the Raiders in Las Vegas yesterday. The still play the Eagles two more times, the Cowboys twice and another division game in their final game as they close out the season with the Giants.
The Eagles head into their bye this week which will give Jalen Hurts extra time to get better. But with the way Minshew played yesterday, we could have a Nick Foles situation at play again in Philly.
Point 6: Hail to the Chiefs
Well, I said on Saturday’s show that if KC won and covered this one I’d start taking them more seriously. So I guess I have to be a man of my word.
It’s just, you know the 184 yards by Mahomes paired with no TDs and another INT that still gives me pause about KC. Now granted, their defense has been playing extremely well and yesterday was one of Spags’ best planned game since joining the Chiefs.
But I have been hammering on Green Bay for lackluster offense and elite defense all season and I just can’t ignore this about KC as well.
The Chiefs have now won 5 games in a row – holding each opponent to under 20 points each time. They have scored over 30 just once in that span.
Maybe the expectations for Mahomes’ career were set impossibly high. And then the contract was executed with that version of Mahomes in mind. The version they have right now is still good enough to possibly win a Super Bowl.
I’m just not sure I would bet on it.
Extra Point: Ben Nice Knowing You
It was announced over the weekend that Big Ben will retire at the end of this season. It make sense. He’s declined this season and despite changing his body type heading into this season, he’s just physically not there anymore.
Now he did avoid discussing it after the game and Coach Tomlin was his typical stoic self when responding to the report. But it does seem like Ben is calling it a career.
He had a good enough game yesterday over the Ravens and at 6-5-1, the Steelers still have an outside chance of making the playoffs. But more than likely, he will end his career missing the playoffs and closing out things on a 3-year dropoff.
Just remember, in 2018 he threw for over 5,000 yards with a career-high 34 touchdowns. Since then?
An injured shortened 2019. A Covid plagued 2020. And this up and down season.
Ben is a 2 time Super Bowl winner, a 6 time pro bowler and 6th on the all-time passing yards list. Looking at the top 10 on that passing yards list, he’s more than likely a guarantee for the Hall of Fame.
So as Ben walks off and into Canton, you have wonder who will take his place in Pittsburgh. Replacing a legend has not gone well for the most part recently.
Daniel Jones could be a bust. Andrew Luck quit. The Jameis Winston/Taysum Hill combo has not been lights out. The only exception could be happening now in New England.
So Ben. Enjoy your final games. And maybe avoid any celebrity golf tournaments in Tahoe from now on.
NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football
New England (3) vs. Buffalo (-3)
Spread: Bet $50 New England
Total: Lean Over (41)
Predicted Score: New England 27 – Buffalo 29 (56)
Notes: The Patriots currently sit atop the AFC East and in fact, currently sit atop the AFC at the moment. But a loss at Buffalo tonight would change all of that. And you have to believe the Bills know that.
Now whether they can do anything to make that happen is another story. The Bills have the defense for sure and a pretty good offense. But its hard to ignore their 9-6 loss to Jacksonville and their 41-15 loss to the Colts.
And the Patriots are rolling right now. They have won 6 in a row and beating teams by double digits. Their defense is arguably the best in the league and they’ve gone 3 games in a row without letting their opponent score in the second half of the game.
$50 bet on the Patriots.
MEM (4.5) at MIA (-4.5)
Pick: $10 ML Bet MEM
Total: 214.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: MEM 111 – MIA 101
Notes: The first thing I had to do is remove that OKC game from my model. And I still have the Grizzlies winning this game. The Heat will continue to be without Bam but they might get Jimmy Butler back today – as he’s listed as questionable.
The Grizzlies have been getting things done without Ja Morant out there as Jaren Jackson Jr. has taken over as the alpha in the meantime.
If Jimmy comes back tonight, maybe Miami pulls off the win. But the value is still on Memphis.
$10 moneyline bet on the Grizzlies.
CLE (7.5) at MIL (-7.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE ML
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: CLE 108 – MIL 109
Notes: Cleveland lost a very close one to Utah yesterday and now turn around and head over to Milwaukee to play a Bucks team that has won 4 of 5 games. Giannis continues to be a question mark in the lineup though the expectation is that he will end up playing.
Cleveland continues to impress on a night-to-night basis. They are 8-4 on the road and aren’t just beating the bad teams in the league. This is a team to worry about.
I have the Bucks winning this game by a point. So the value is definitely on the Cavs. $10 moneyline bet on Cleveland.
OKC (5.5) at DET (-5.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 206.5 (Lean Over – 212)
Predicted Score: OKC 102 – DET 110
WAS (5.5) at IND (-5.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 210.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: WAS 106 – IND 110
PHI (-6.5) at CHA (6.5)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: PHI 108 – CHA 114
Notes: Ball and Rozier are both out.
DEN (4.5) at CHI (-4.5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: DEN 108 – CHI 111
ATL (1.5) at MIN (-1.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: ATL 112 – MIN 107
SAS (7.5) at PHX (-7.5)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: SAS 107 – PHX 106
ORL (14.5) at GSW (-14.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: ORL 100 – GSW 112
LAC (-3.5) at POR (3.5)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: LAC 111 – POR 109
Anaheim Ducks (175) at Washington Capitals (-210)
Pick: Bet $10 Anaheim
Notes: Washington has been a pretty solid home team this season but the value is on the Ducks here. When they last played, Anaheim snuck out an OT win. It could be that close once again.
The Ducks are a good offensive team and an equally as good defensive team. Granted, they have not been playing their best hockey as of late. But still, if I have this as a close one then the value is on the big plus line.
For Washington, their captain, Alex Ovechkin, turned 36 this past year and a lot of people questioned his 5-year deal. Well, he’s looking like vintage Ovie out there as he chases down Wayne Gretzky’s all-time-goal-scoring record.
Maybe he gets a step closer tonight but I like the Ducks to nab the win. $10 bet on Anaheim.
Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Philadelphia Flyers (135)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: The Flyers’ losing streak will end at some point and fear it could be tonight with Colorado on game 4 of their road trip. Colorado has been a mediocre team on the road this season.
Ottawa Senators (168) at New Jersey Devils (-205)
Pick: Lean New Jersey
Notes: Ottawa has won two in a row while NJ has lost 4 of 5. But the Devils are pretty good at The Rock this year and should grab the win. Just too much chalk for sure.
Arizona Coyotes (240) at Dallas Stars (-300)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Los Angeles Kings (115) at Vancouver Canucks (-135)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Notes: I’d probably be betting LA here if they were not playing in a back-to-back.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) at Seattle Kraken (105)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh