Degen Show (2/12/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 2/12/22
NFL Super Bowl
LA Rams (-4) vs. Cincinnati (4)
Spread: Bet $50 Cincinnati
Total: Bet $50 Over 48.5
Predicted Score: LA Rams 28 – Cincinnati 27 (55)
Notes: In possibly one of the most unlikeliest Super Bowl matchups heading into this season, the young Bengals will take on the super collective that is the Los Angeles Rams.
Each team had a different method of getting here.
For the Rams, it was assembling a bit of a super team – while burning the future to the ground. For the Bengals, it was drafting the right QB and getting him the right wide receiver to set this team up for a great future.
But apparently the future is now for the Bengals.
I’ve said it on the show before, I think the best time for a team to win a Super Bowl is when they have a great QB on a rookie deal. The moment you have to pay the man – the moment you start skimping on other important areas of your team.
The Bengals have a badass in Joe Burrow. And they partnered him up with his college security blanket Ja’Marr Chase.
I read a funny story that upon being drafted, Chase went door-to-door in Burrow’s neighborhood in Cincinnati so he could buy a house and be neighbors with him. And the funny fucking thing is that it worked.
That’s the type of bond and brotherhood that pushes teams to win.
Now do they have a chance to win here? Abso-fucking-lutely.
We will all be paying attention to the biggest mismatch of this game. Can the Bengals’ o-line protect Burrow against Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller? Donald takes at least two o-linemen to stop him.
Floyd is a beast and the addition of Super Bowl veteran Von Miller has made this defense even tougher to stop.
But the Bengals persevere while the Rams let teams back into games. So yeah, even if Burrow is sacked a dozen times, he will shake it off and keep Cincinnati in this game.
On the other side, it’ll be Matt Stafford under the spotlight. He has coughed up pick sixes and INTs a lot in the second half of the season. Many times those were in crucial situations.
In fact, if the 49ers secondary didn’t get a case of stonehands, it could have been them playing this game and not the Rams.
I would say all of the pressure is on LA here. There were built for this. Anything less would be a disappointment. They are at home – though Cincinnati is the home team – and the defensive line mismatch should give them a huge advantage.
The emergence of Cooper Kupp and resurgence of OBJ gives them the weapons to make the Bengals’ secondary sweat. This team should win.
Which makes this a Bengals bet for me. I think they will continue to play loose and if they fall behind, they know they can come back. They are playing with house money so time for them to go all-in.
$50 bet on the Bengals +4 points.
As for the total, I think this goes over. I have this at 55 points. So another $50 bet on the over.
MEM (-7.5) at CHA (7.5)
Pick: Bet $15 MEM ML
Total: 235.5 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: MEM 119 – CHA 107
CLE (4) at PHI (-4)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE ML
Total: 206.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: CLE 106 – PHI 107
LAC (7) at DAL (-7)
Pick: Bet $15 DAL ML
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: LAC 107 – DAL 115
NYK (-5.5) at POR (5.5)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: NYK 112 – POR 110
SAC (-3) at WAS (3)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 222 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: SAC 109 – WAS 106
SAS (5) at NOP (-5)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: SAS 110 – NOP 109
DEN (3.5) at TOR (-3.5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: DEN 114 – TOR 115
OKC (13) at CHI (-13)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 225)
Predicted Score: OKC 111 – CHI 114
BKN (10.5) at MIA (-10.5)
Pick: Lean BKN
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: BKN 109 – MIA 117
LAL (6.5) at GSW (-6.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 224 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: LAL 112 – GSW 115
ORL (16) at PHX (-16)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 225 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: ORL 111 – PHX 118
|Max’s Expected Probability|
|Philadelphia Flyers||Bet $10 Philadelphia||140||41.67||50.14|
|Detroit Red Wings||-165||62.26||49.86|
|Boston Bruins||Bet $10 Boston||-160||61.54||69.63|
|Columbus Blue Jackets||Bet $10 Columbus||-145||59.18||61.57|
|Toronto Maple Leafs||Bet $10 Toronto||-200||66.67||69.73|
|Winnipeg Jets||Bet $10 Winnipeg||155||39.22||47.89|
|Chicago Blackhawks||Bet $10 St. Louis||150||40.00||32.49|
|St. Louis Blues||-185||64.91||64.90|
|Carolina Hurricanes||Bet $10 Minnesota||-115||53.49||51.32|
|New York Islanders||Bet $10 Calgary||145||40.82||28.08|