Degen Show (2/16/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 2/16/22
ATL (-5.5) at ORL (5.5)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL ML
Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: ATL 115 – ORL 108
Notes: The Hawks pulled out a good win over the Cavs yesterday and now turn around to head to Orlando to take on a Magic team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games.
The Magic are 5-20 at home this season and have only two division wins this season.
One of those division wins was over the Hawks last time they met.
But I don’t think they win another. Atlanta might be a little tired playing in a back-to-back but they should have enough in the tank to take down Orlando today.
$10 moneyline bet on the Hawks.
UTA (-4.5) at LAL (4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 UTA ML
Total: 227 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: UTA 115 – LAL 105
Notes: Utah has won 6 games in a row. They welcomed back Rudy Gobert in their last win – a 34-point blowout over the Rockets.
Now the Lakers aren’t as bad as the Rockets are. They aren’t anywhere as good as the Jazz – but definitely not Rockets bad.
You kind of expect them to get things right. LeBron appears to be healthy. Anthony Davis appears to be healthy. Westbrook only had 1 turnover in his last game. And they had a close loss to the Warriors.
That’s almost like a win. I mean, its totally not a win. In fact, it’s literally the opposite of that.
But morally, it’s kind of like a win.
After being destroyed by the Bucks, the Lakers have lost a pair of close losses. So maybe they are on the cusp of getting things right and getting a win.
I just don’t think it’ll be tonight.
$10 moneyline bet on the Jazz.
WAS (1) at IND (-1)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 224 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: WAS 112 – IND 111
DET (12.5) at BOS (-12.5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 214 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: DET 98 – BOS 114
BKN (4.5) at NYK (-4.5)
Pick: Lean BKN
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: BKN 114 – NYK 115
TOR (1) at MIN (-1)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 230.5 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: TOR 116 – MIN 118
SAC (6) at CHI (-6)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 234 (Lean Under – 230)
Predicted Score: SAC 113 – CHI 117
POR (12) at MEM (-12)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: POR 108 – MEM 119
SAS (-6.5) at OKC (6.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: SAS 113 – OKC 108
HOU (15.5) at PHX (-15.5)
Pick: Lean PHX
Total: 234 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: HOU 105 – PHX 122
DEN (5) at GSW (-5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: DEN 113 – GSW 114
Florida Panthers (100) at Carolina Hurricanes (-120)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: Great matchup here. The Panthers haven’t played in a couple of weeks. Yesterday I went 1-1 on my bets against rusty teams. So let’s see where I fall on this one.
The Hurricanes have not played well the past two weeks. They are 1-3 with their only win over the Bruins a week ago.
Those were all road games and now they return home where they are 16-4-1 this season.
The Panthers have won the two previous matchups this season. The last one was a great OT win last month.
Both teams find themselves looking up at another team in their respective divisions. A win today for the Panthers would get them slightly ahead of the Lightning.
And that’s what I expect to happen.
$10 bet on the Panthers.
Colorado Avalanche (-120) at Vegas Golden Knights (-120)
Pick: Bet $10 Colorado
Notes: Colorado is coming off a loss in Dallas yesterday and have to turn right around and head to Vegas to take on a Golden Knights team that has returned home after a short road trip in Canada.
Vegas’ last game was an embarrassing loss to the Flames. It was a loss that dropped the Golden Knights behind Calgary in the standings in the Pacific Division.
The Avalanche have a big lead over the Wild in the Central Division. Colorado has been putting up a ton of goals the past few months. It will be interesting to see if they can sustain that.
The Avalanche have one of the highest luck factors in the league and based on their expected goals for, they have been sinking some shots that normally wouldn’t go in.
They are middle of the pack when it comes to high danger shots while Vegas ranks second.
Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that this team overwhelms defenses with a high volume of shots. The Avalanche have put up 1664 shots on goal this season – good for 4th best in the league.
And Vegas’ goalies don’t really do well against a high volume of shots on goal.
Which makes this an Avalanche play for me.
$10 bet on Colorado.
|Team||Action||Implied Probabilty||Max’s Expected Probability|
|Minnesota Wild||Lean Minnesota||59.18||55.22|
|Florida Panthers||Bet $10 Florida||50.00||52.71|
|Anaheim Ducks||Lean Calgary||38.46||35.03|
|Colorado Avalanche||Bet $10 Colorado||54.55||56.28|
|Vegas Golden Knights||54.55||43.30|