Degen Show (3/2/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 3/2/22
IND (1.5) at ORL (-1.5)
Pick: Bet $10 ORL ML
Total: 231.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: IND 114 – ORL 119
Notes: You know your NBA betting is slim pickings when you eye up this game and say, “Gee, there is some value on the Orlando Magic.”
Yes. The same Orlando team that is 7-21 at home this season and has just 15 total wins on the year.
Yes. The same Orlando team that went through a stretch of double-digit losses just a few weeks ago.
But it’s the same Orlando team that just beat the Pacers by 16 points a few days ago and the same Orlando team that also beat the Pacers about a month ago.
In fact, 13% of their season wins are over the Pacers.
The Magic are looking to see what they have in Markelle Fultz as he comes back from an injury. He played 16 minutes his last go out but scored 10 points on 5 of 7 shooting.
He also added in 6 assists.
The challenge here, of course, is that Fultz is a point guard and they happened to draft a point guard in Cole Anthony.
So Fultz getting playing time will be an attempt to entice a team to trade for him.
Maybe the Sixers will be interested in overpaying for him. Again.
I already mentioned what I am doing in this one but I’ll make it official.
$10 moneyline bet on the Magic.
MIA (4.5) at MIL (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 MIA ML
Total: 227 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: MIA 117 – MIL 113
Notes: The Bucks decided to flex on Monday night – beating the Hornets by 24 points. How will they fair against a Heat team that has won 4 in a row and sits atop the Eastern Conference?
Miami will need to win today without Kyle Lowry out there. But other than that, they should be healthy and ready for a big matchup.
Factoring in their recency, this team is the 4th best shooting team as it pertains to effective field goal %.
Milwaukee is a mediocre team in defending against shooters and their defensive efficiency is nowhere near what it has been in previous seasons.
The Bucks are vulnerable against hot shooters and I’m hoping the Heat can, I guess pun intended, get hot tonight.
Miami has struggled on the road this season but still find themselves 6 games above .500 away from Miami this year.
I think they can get another today.
$10 moneyline bet on the Heat.
CHA (3) at CLE (-3)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: CHA 113 – CLE 114
NYK (10.5) at PHI (-10.5)
Pick: Lean NYK
Total: 222.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: NYK 109 – PHI 112
SAC (5.5) at NOP (-5.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 235 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: SAC 112 – NOP 114
UTA (-12.5) at HOU (12.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 231.5 (Lean Under – 222)
Predicted Score: UTA 116 – HOU 106
OKC (13.5) at DEN (-13.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: OKC 110 – DEN 118
POR (13) at PHX (-13)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 227.5 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: POR 112 – PHX 116
Los Angeles Kings (125) at Dallas Stars (-145)
Pick: Bet $10 Los Angeles
Notes: Dallas is 19-7-1 at home this season. Coming off a win over the Sabres from a few days ago, they look to take advantage of a Kings team that got roughed up in their last outing.
The Kings are coming off a 7-0 loss to the Bruins. Prior to that, LA had been on a nice win streak.
The Kings are 15-6-5 on the road this season and are riding a 7-game road winning streak.
Jonathan Quick is expected to be in goal for the Kings tonight. He had a short outing against the Bruins – giving up 5 goals on 19 shots against.
Cal Peterson replaced him in that one and wasn’t much better.
So I will chalk that up to an aggressive Boston offense that was determined to put up some goals.
Dallas is certainly not that type of team. They rank 25th in shots on goal and 16th in high danger shots this season.
I have the Stars barely edging out a win here so the value is on the Kings.
$10 bet on Los Angeles.
St. Louis Blues (-110) at New York Rangers (-110)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Notes: Money is hitting NY and line is getting worse for them. Implied probability says to take St. Louis but I will back off this one.
Buffalo Sabres (350) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-425)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Notes: Chalky one here. Some money coming in on Buffalo but most of the public is backing the favorite here.
Nashville Predators (-165) at Seattle Kraken (145)
Pick: Lean Nashville
|Team||Action||Current Line||Implied Probability||Max’s Expected Probability|
|St. Louis Blues||Lean St. Louis||-110||52.38||55.63|
|New York Rangers||-110||52.38||44.03|
|Buffalo Sabres||Lean Toronto||350||22.22||11.56|
|Toronto Maple Leafs||-425||80.95||77.77|
|Los Angeles Kings||Bet $10 Los Angeles||125||44.44||49.74|
|Nashville Predators||Lean Nashville||-165||62.26||55.28|