Degen Show (3/4/22)
Powered by RedCircle
The Book Club is open!
The Book Club is open for business. If you want to join Max, Arch, Sex Panther, Saxy Maxy, Phil and maybe some other familiar faces in a private discord server to discuss even more sports betting you can!
Keep the Lights On Around Here!
Visit the Degen shop!
Oddsjam is the best odds site on earth. Get the fastest line updates.
The Degens! App
Grab the Degens App hangout, shoot the breeze and get even more content.
Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 3/4/22
CLE (7.5) at PHI (-7.5)
Pick: Bet $15 PHI ML
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: CLE 107 – PHI 110
Notes: Through 3 games, it appears that the Joel Embiid / Jimmy James Harden alliance is going well.
Of course, beating up on the Knicks is not the greatest barometer of success this year. New York has only 3 wins dating back to January 15th.
But still, it appears like Harden and Embiid are having fun, playing well off each other and making the team around them better.
Tyrese Maxey is getting more open shots and Tobias Harris has less pressure to be a major contributor now.
Guys like Danny Green, Paul Millisap and Willy Cauley-Stein are throwing in minutes whenever needed. And now add Deandre Jordan to the mix and this team should be set for a deep playoff run.
I mean, if this all holds up. And history tells us that with injuries looming for Embiid and Harden or Jimmy James just wearing out his welcome, that it could be a big if.
Anywho, we are talking about this specific game on this specific night.
Cleveland has lost some of its luster and has begun their descent into the lower end of the playoff picture in the East.
Make no mistake, they are still a good team and should make at least the play-in games. But that electric play we saw from them for a stretch seems to have faded.
The Cavs have lost 4 of 5 and their road record has slowly worked itself closer to mediocrity.
They should put up a nice effort tonight but ultimately will lose to Philly.
$15 moneyline bet on the Sixers.
MIL (-3.5) at CHI (3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CHI ML
Total: 238 (Lean Under – 234)
Predicted Score: MIL 113 – CHI 121
Notes: You’d like to say the Bucks showed up in their win over the Heat. But it was more like Jimmy Butler forgot to show up for the last 36 minutes of the game.
Milwaukee travels over to one of Butler’s former teams today as the Bulls look to break a 3-game losing streak.
As the season winds down – with about 20 games left for each team – these games will matter in the East where 5 teams could vie for the top seed or at least jockey for position.
Both teams have been shooting the ball well lately but it’s surprising that Milwaukee has shot better on the road this year than at home.
Offensively, these teams match up well. Defensively, the Bucks are the far better team – despite their dropoff from the last two seasons.
Still, I think the value is on the Bulls here. Probably better to take the points but that moneyline is too tempting.
$10 moneyline bet on the Bulls.
NYK (6.5) at PHX (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $15 PHX ML
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: NYK 108 – PHX 118
Notes: Well, I already spent some time shitting on the Knicks. So I guess I don’t have to anymore of that.
Did I mention that they have lost 6 in a row and already have 6 more losses on the season than they had losses last year?
Anyway, they suck.
The Suns do not.
They are a different team without Chris Paul out there and a handful of recent losses should be a bit concerning for their top seed positioning.
But they are still one of the top teams in the league and only have 7 home losses this season.
I don’t think #8 will happen today.
$15 moneyline bet on the Suns.
ATL (-3) at WAS (3)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: ATL 114 – WAS 114
IND (-3.5) at DET (3.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 230.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: IND 118 – DET 115
UTA (-3.5) at NOP (3.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 228 (Lean Under – 228)
Predicted Score: UTA 114 – NOP 114
MIN (-8) at OKC (8)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 230.5 (Lean Over – 237)
Predicted Score: MIN 121 – OKC 116
HOU (13.5) at DEN (-13.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 234.5 (Lean Under – 232)
Predicted Score: HOU 111 – DEN 121
New Jersey Devils (145) at New York Rangers (-165)
Pick: Bet $10 New Jersey
Notes: Looking at the expected goalies in this one and also looking at the line movement, I think we will see different guys in goal tonight for one or both teams.
The opening at Rangers -194 is indicative of a Gillies / Shesterkin matchup.
But the money hammering NJ and the shift down makes me think that Nico Daws gets the start for the Devils tonight.
New Jersey is a totally different team when the 21-year-old is in goal.
As for Gillies, I cannot shake that 8 goal shitshow against the Blackhawks out of my head.
The Rangers are the better team – even though the Devils’ offense can be pretty dynamic at times.
Consistency of play is a huge issue for New Jersey but still, the value is on them today.
$10 bet on New Jersey.
Los Angeles Kings (-145) at Columbus Blue Jackets (125)
Pick: Bet $10 Los Angeles
Notes: The Kings are coming off a pair of losses. I was on them against Dallas two days ago and missed on them then.
But this is still a pretty damn good time that should bounce back with a win today.
The Kings’ offense has been pretty damn aggressive this year. They are third in shots on goal and third in high danger shots.
Columbus has the second worst goals against in the league this year so if LA comes out firing on all cylinders, this could get out of hand.
$10 bet on the Kings.
Pittsburgh Penguins (130) at Carolina Hurricanes (-150)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings (260) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-340)
Pick: Lean Tampa Bay
Minnesota Wild (-195) at Buffalo Sabres (165)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Dallas Stars (-110) at Winnipeg Jets (-110)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights (-126) at Anaheim Ducks (105)
Pick: Lean Vegas
|Team||Action||Current Line||Implied Probability||Expected Probability|
|New Jersey Devils||Bet $10 New Jersey||145||40.82||47.51|
|New York Rangers||-165||62.26||52.43|
|Pittsburgh Penguins||Lean Pittsburgh||130||43.48||52.66|
|Detroit Red Wings||Lean Tampa Bay||260||27.78||33.15|
|Tampa Bay Lightning||-340||77.27||64.42|
|Los Angeles Kings||Bet $10 Los Angeles||-145||59.18||59.68|
|Columbus Blue Jackets||125||44.44||39.28|
|Minnesota Wild||Lean Minnesota||-195||66.10||65.75|
|Dallas Stars||Lean Winnipeg||-110||52.38||48.86|
|Vegas Golden Knights||Lean Vegas||-126||55.75||55.47|