Degen Show Part (4/10/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/10/21
TOR (-2.5) at CLE (2.5)
Pick: Bet ML $20 CLE
Total: 216.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: TOR 109 – CLE 110
Notes: Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. will miss the game for Cleveland. Toronto will still be without Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. The Raptors have lost 2 in a row while Cleveland has won their last 2 in convincing fashion. I hate that Allen won’t play for the Cavs but I still give them the edge to win this game. Not much I like today. I don’t even really like this one. But a $20 moneyline bet on the Cavs.
WAS (11.5) at PHX (-11.5)
Pick: Bet $20 PHX
Total: 229.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: WAS 110 – PHX 123
Notes: Washington pulled out an upset win last night over the Warriors but now travel to Phoenix to play a red-hot Suns team. Phoenix lost their last outing to LA – but should be a bit more rested. I imagine that this line is so high because Bradley Beal’s status is in question after playing last night.
LAL (11.5) at BKN (-11.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: LAL 102 – BKN 110
Notes: Anthony Davis is not expected to be back on the court until after their road trip. He’s not the only injury. Some guy named LeBron is out and Alex Caruso (questionable), Marc Gasol (questionable), and Kyle Kuzma (questionable) all have injuries. Harden is still out for Brooklyn but with Durant available for more minutes, I think they probably cover this one. I just don’t love it. A lean on the Lakers.
SAC (12.5) at UTA (-12.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 231 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: SAC 106 – UTA 118
Notes: I have Utah winning this game by 12. So it’s close. The Jazz bounced back well from consecutive losses by beating Portland while Sacramento really wants to get Luke Walton fired and give Panther the head coaching job.
PHI (-11.5) at OKC (11.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: PHI 113 – OKC 104
Notes: Philly took a road loss to the Pelicans last night and look to bounce back against a dreadful OKC team. Joel Embiid might not play after logging 31 minutes last night. OKC has lost 5 in a row and really has not been competitive. I have Philly winning this game by about 8 or 9 – so not quite enought to cover.
HOU (9) at GSW (-9)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 228 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: HOU 113 – GSW 114
Notes: Both teams played last night and took L’s. The Warriors look to bounce back from that stunning loss while Houston finds itself as not the worst dog on the board today. John Wall sat out last night for rest but should be back today. I don’t love the Warriors right now and maybe some value in betting Houston. I just can’t do it.
DET (11.5) at POR (-11.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 223.5 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: DET 111 – POR 116
Notes: Jerami Grant and Wayne Ellington are out for Detroit and Mason Plumlee is questionable. There, I named 3 players for the Pistons. Jusuf Nurkic is doubtful for today for Portland. The Blazers have been so hit or miss lately. They should get the win over a depleted Pistons team – or any Pistons team – I just think it’s too many points.
Florida Panthers (-101) at Dallas Stars (-109)
Pick: Bet $20 Florida
Notes: Almost all of the money is hitting Florida and the line has not gotten worse for them. Panthers have lost 2 in a row. Dallas is decent at home but beatable.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-175) at Nashville Predators (157)
Pick: Bet $20 Tampa
Notes: Nashville has won 4 of 5 but the competition has not been good. Tampa dropped 2 games to subpar teams and is still a vulnerable team – but I like their metrics lately (despite the losses) and they should get it done today. It is chalky – but for Tampa, this is a sweet spot of buying for them.
Boston Bruins (-120) at Philadelphia Flyers (109)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Notes: Money is hammering Boston here but my metrics say Philly pulls out the win. Flyers have not looked good lately, though, and their only win recently was a 3-2 win over the Bruins.
Winnipeg Jets (117) at Montreal Canadiens (-129)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Notes: My metrics say the play is Montreal. But Winnipeg has played better recently and is a damn good road team. Without taking one of the massive dogs today, Winnipeg could be the best value play on the board. I just hate them.
Chicago Blackhawks (-117) at Columbus Blue Jackets (106)
Pick: Lean Chicago
Notes: Both teams are struggling to find wins right now. Chicago has a losing road record but is not terrible on the road while the Blue Jackets are mediocre at home. Even with the minus line here, Chicago hits the implied probability. I just don’t like it.
Ottawa Senators (293) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-346)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Pick: Probably the game you want to add to any parlay. Love Toronto here but so much damn chalk.
Detroit Red Wings (291) at Carolina Hurricanes (-344)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Notes: The value is there on Detroit from implied probability but a 4-14-2 road record against a Carolina home record of 14-2-3 scares me off for sure.
Minnesota Wild (-105) at St. Louis Blues (-115)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: The Blues are still scoring from last night. I’ll pass on Minnesota tonight.
Edmonton Oilers (-111) at Calgary Flames (100)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Notes: The Oilers are a damn good road team but I give the Flames a slight edge to wins this one.
Los Angeles Kings (115) at San Jose Sharks (-135)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Notes: This is a replay of last night’s game. I think the results will be a bit different – but not enough confidence to bet.
SEA (164) at MIN (-179)
Pitchers: Y. Kikuchi vs. M. Pineda
Pick: Bet $20 MIN
KC (124) at CWS (-135)
Pitchers: M. Minor vs. D. Cease
Pick: Bet $20 KC
DET (151) at CLE (-165)
Pitchers: T. Skubal vs. A. Civale
Pick: Bet $20 CLE
BOS (-124) at BAL (114)
Pitchers: G. Richards vs. B. Zimmermann
Pick: Bet $20 BAL
SD (-174) at TEX (159)
Pitchers: C. Paddack vs. J. Lyles
Pick: Bet $20 TEX
MIA (230) at NYM (-257)
Pitchers: T. Rogers vs. J. deGrom
Pick: Lean NYM
NYY (-116) at TB (107)
Pitchers: D. German vs. C. Archer
Pick: Lean NYY
MIL (102) at STL (-110)
Pitchers: A. Houser vs. C. Martinez
Pick: Lean STL
COL (156) at SF (-170)
Pitchers: C. Gonzalez vs. L. Webb
Pick: Lean COL
OAK (135) at HOU (-147)
Pitchers: F. Montas vs. J. Urquidy
Pick: Lean OAK
CHC (-150) at PIT (138)
Pitchers: Z. Davies vs. M. Keller
Pick: Lean CHC
LAA (115) at TOR (-124)
Pitchers: J. Quintana vs. S. Matz
Pick: Lean TOR
PHI (119) at ATL (-128)
Pitchers: Z. Eflin vs. I. Anderson
Pick: Lean PHI
CIN () at ARI ()
Pitchers: J. Hoffman vs. R. Smith
WSH () at LAD ()
Pitchers: vs. J. Urias