Degen Show Part (4/14/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/14/21
GSW (-10.5) at OKC (10.5)
Pick: Bet $20 GSW
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: GSW 124 – OKC 110
Notes: Kelly Oubre Jr. is doubtful tonight for Golden State so their 3 point shooting should improve. The Warriors have won 2 in a row but hit the road where they are 9-18. OKC has lost 7 in a row but managed to keep it within 10 last night. My trend lately is to bet against OKC and lose so why stop what’s working? $20 bet on the Warriors.
LAC (-9.5) at DET (9.5)
Pick: Bet $20 LAC
Total: 222.5 (Bet $20 Over – 230)
Predicted Score: LAC 121 – DET 109
Notes: Kawhi sat out last night but could be available today. To remember the last time these teams played you would need to travel all the way back three days ago where the Clippers bested Detroit in LA by 7 points. The game shifts to Detroit and the Clippers are coming off a win last night – their 7th in a row. I have the Clippers winning and covering this game by 12 and I have this going over. So like Panther, a double dip. $20 on the Clippers and $20 on the over.
MIL (-9.5) at MIN (9.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 236.5 (Lean Under – 230)
Predicted Score: MIL 118 – MIN 112
Notes: Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for tonight’s game. Karl-Anthony Towns did not play in Tuesday’s game against the Nets and its unclear if he’s back today. The T-Wolves lost yesterday while Milwaukee has been resting for 3 days since destroying Orlando. Too many questions about injuries and I only have the Bucks covering this one by 6. Milwaukee is also only 15-12 on the road and have not looked great without Giannis.
BKN (6.5) at PHI (-6.5)
Pick: Lean BKN
Total: 232.5 (Lean Under – 222)
Predicted Score: BKN 108 – PHI 114
Notes: Harden and Aldridge are still out and Kyrie is questionable. Durant logged 27 minutes yesterday and had a great game – but unsure of how they will handle his back-to-backs. The Sixers went 3-1 on their road trip and return home where they are 20-5. They should get the win here but I don’t like it.
CLE (3.5) at CHA (-3.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 212.5 (Lean Over – 215)
Predicted Score: CLE 110 – CHA 105
Notes: Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are both questionable for Cleveland. Terry Rozier missed the game for Charlotte yesterday and Gordon Hayward is still out. Both teams are on 2-game losing streaks. Too many questions here to bet this game.
SAS (-2.5) at TOR (2.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: SAS 110 – TOR 112
Notes: Kyle Lowry sat out last night’s loss to the Hawks but should be available today. Fred VanVleet continues to be out for Toronto. The Spurs are 14-9 on the road and have won 2 consecutive games – both on the road. This is their 5th road game in a row though so that’s a bit of a concern.
ORL (9.5) at CHI (-9.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 219 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: ORL 107 – CHI 117
Notes: Otto Porter Jr. is out and Mo Bamba is questionable for an already depleted Magic team. Orlando has lost 6 in a row and all but one were by double-digits. The Bulls looked good for a bit and then dropped the final 3 games of their road trip. I still cannot trust them. They should get it done today but fuck them.
NYK (2.5) at NOP (-2.5)
Pick: Lean NYK
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: NYK 111 – NOP 105
Notes: The Knicks have won 3 in a row. But those were home games. These are road games. The difference? A big one. New York is only 11-17 on the road this year and they cannot seem to close out games on the road for some reason. New Orleans has won 3 games in a row and are a decent home team. I have trust issues with both teams here so I am off this one.
IND (-5.5) at HOU (5.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 233 (Lean Over – 241)
Predicted Score: IND 124 – HOU 117
Notes: Myles Turner missed the game yesterday and Doug McDermott got injured yesterday. The Pacers had won 3 in a row prior to that – including a pair of road games. They should improve their road record tonight against a Rockets team that is 7-19 at home. Houston has lost 3 in a row and while they managed to keep it close with Phoenix, this is a team that cannot compete with even mediocre teams. Indiana is better than mediocre. I think. Leaning the Pacers.
DAL (-2) at MEM (2)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 226 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: DAL 109 – MEM 108
Notes: Justise Winslow remains out for the Grizzlies but that has not stopped Memphis from playing some pretty good basketball. They are coming off a win over Chicago and their losses have been close ones. Dallas has lost 2 in a row but are a pretty good road team with a 16-12 record and a 56% EFG on the road the past month. It has dipped off a bit lately though. This is a coin flip for me and as such, a lean on Memphis.
WAS (-1.5) at SAC (1.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 236.5 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: WAS 114 – SAC 112
Notes: De’Aaron Fox scored 43 points in his last game. Sacramento lost. That was their 7th straight loss and now they head back home where they are only 12-15. Washington has won 3 of 4 games – with their big win on the road at Utah. The issue is that this team is inconsistent and this is now their 6th straight road game. I still like Washington here – but only in a lean.
MIA (4) at DEN (-4)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 213 (Lean Under – 210)
Predicted Score: MIA 104 – DEN 106
Notes: Victor Oladipo remains out for Miami. Jamal Murray tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season for Denver. It’s a huge blow to their championship aspirations. Miami lost last night to Phoenix by 20 points. Their offense could not get it going. Denver’s defense is not as tough as Phoenix so they should see some improvement but not sure they can nab a win – even without Murray for Denver. Still, I don’t have the Nuggets covering this one. A lean on Miami.
Arizona Coyotes (176) at Minnesota Wild (-197)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN
Notes: This is a chalky one for sure but I like the Wild to get another home win today. Arizona has lost 4 in a row and have a -5 goal differential in that time span. Granted, the Wild have a worse differential in that span but a 9-1 loss will do that to you. Wild should win this one. $20 bet on Minnesota.
Winnipeg Jets (-171) at Ottawa Senators (150)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Notes: I bet on Winnipeg. They lost. That’s how it goes.
Calgary Flames (130) at Montreal Canadiens (-151)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Notes: My metrics slightly favor Calgary but after a game yesterday and then another on Friday, this team is in a tough spot schedule-wise. Both teams are coming off big wins over Toronto and the Canadiens should be able to notch a close win tonight.
Colorado Avalanche (-183) at St. Louis Blues (164)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: Too much chalk for me on Colorado. St. Louis is starting to get healthy and play some decent hockey – improving their home record a lot this past week.
Vegas Golden Knights (-204) at Los Angeles Kings (181)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: I said check back on Wednesday for a value play on Los Angeles. But my metrics say not to. Leaning Las Vegas here.
Anaheim Ducks (163) at San Jose Sharks (-182)
Pick: Lean San Jose
Notes: Anaheim got the win over the Sharks on Monday. I like San Jose to bounce back today but too chalky. In fact, some value in the Ducks to get a mini-sweep. It’s right there so I cannot pull the trigger.
NYY (-122) at TOR (113)
Pitchers: C. Kluber vs. R. Stripling
Pick: Bet $20 NYY
Notes: The Blue Jays got the best of the Yankees yesterday but I like New York to close out this series. Neither pitcher has looked great so far but I like Kluber today to have a strong outing. The Yankees bats should power them to a win. $20 bet on New York.
CHC (150) at MIL (-163)
Pitchers: J. Arrieta vs. C. Burnes
Pick: Bet $20 MIL
Notes: I faded Milwaukee yesterday but I like them today to win this series. Neither team can produce runs but Milwaukee’s hitting metrics are trending a bit better than Chicago and they should be able to get some runs on the Cubs’ bullpen. $20 bet on the Brewers.
LAA (-124) at KC (115)
Pitchers: G. Canning vs. B. Keller
Pick: Bet $20 KC
Notes: Am I betting on Brad Keller? I guess I am. KC got the win yesterday and maybe that was my window but I still have them winning this game and there is a plus line. $20 bet on the Royals.
SD (-201) at PIT (182)
Pitchers: J. Musgrove vs. T. Anderson
Pick: Bet $20 PIT
Notes: Lottery ticket here. More than likely San Diego bounces back to get the win today but I don’t like how they are playing and Pittsburgh has shown the ability to put up some runs. The implied probability is there for me. $20 bet on the Pirates.
SEA (112) at BAL (-121)
Pitchers: J. Dunn vs. M. Harvey
Pick: Bet $20 BAL
Notes: Maybe I am chasing waterfalls here. Or maybe I have a soft spot for Matt Harvey. I like the Orioles to get the win today after splitting the doubleheader yesterday. $20 bet on the Orioles.
WSH (115) at STL (-124)
Pitchers: J. Ross vs. A. Wainwright
Pick: Lean STL
BOS (132) at MIN (-143)
Pitchers: N. Eovaldi vs. K. Maeda
Pick: Lean MIN
CIN (-109) at SF (101)
Pitchers: T. Mahle vs. J. Cueto
Pick: Lean CIN
BOS (128) at MIN (-138)
Pitchers: E. Rodriquez vs. J. Berrios
Pick: Lean MIN
PHI (-114) at NYM (106)
Pitchers: Z. Wheeler vs. D. Peterson
Pick: Lean PHI
TEX (167) at TB (-183)
Pitchers: K. Arihana vs. J. Fleming
Pick: Lean TB
DET (197) at HOU (-218)
Pitchers: M. Fulmer vs. L. McCullers Jr.
Pick: Lean DET
MIA (202) at ATL (-224)
Pitchers: N. Neidert vs. C. Morton
Pick: Lean ATL
CLE (103) at CWS (-113)
Pitchers: Z. Plesac vs. C. Rodon
Pick: Lean CLE
COL (234) at LAD (-262)
Pitchers: J. Gray vs. D. May
Pick: Lean COL