Degen Show Part (4/15/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/15/21
BOS (-6) at LAL (6)
Pick: Bet $20 BOS
Total: 212 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: BOS 110 – LAL 102
Notes: Boston has won 4 in a row – including consecutive road games. They get a winnable game tonight against a depleted Lakers team so hopefully they don’t revert back to their mediocre ways. Jason Tatum has stepped up his game recently. He had a 53-point outburst against the T-Wolves a week ago and then followed up with 28 and 30 point games after that. If he can keep this play up, the Celtics could get hot. For tonight, I do have them winning and covering. I’ll more than likely doom them here but a $20 bet on the Celtics.
SAC (10.5) at PHX (-10.5)
Pick: Bet $20 PHX
Total: 229.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: SAC 109 – PHX 122
Notes: Other than hitting my Warriors spread yesterday, I have not had much luck with betting big lines. Which is why I wavered on this one a bit. I have the Suns covering this game by 13 points – which is enough to trigger a bet. But does Phoenix keep the foot on the throat like against Miami or let the Kings keep it close like they did with the Rockets? Sacramento has lost 8 straight games and none of them have been particularly close. Which is too much logic. I’m almost talking myself out of this. Sigh… $20 bet on the Suns.
MIL (-5.5) at ATL (5.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 228.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: MIL 117 – ATL 114
Notes: Trae Young and Danilo Gallinari remain questionable for the Hawks. Both players missed the Hawks 108-103 win over the Raptors on Tuesday. For the Bucks, Giannis is the big question mark there. He did not play in last night’s blowout win over the T-Wolves. His last game was last Friday where he scored 47 points on 85% shootings. So yeah, not sure if you know that, but he’s pretty good. And if he plays, they should cover this one. For now, I am leaning Atlanta.
GSW (-7.5) at CLE (7.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: GSW 114 – CLE 112
Notes: Collin Sexton missed Cleveland’s win yesterday and it is uncertain if he plays tonight. The Cavs looked good with Taurean Prince and Darius Garland leading the way. The Warriors are coming off a 38-point blowout over OKC last night which saw Steph Curry go for 42 points and the team hit 24 of 47 3-pointers. OKC was 7-27. Cleveland is the second worst 3-point shooting team this season by percentage and the worst with points from 3 each game. The Warriors are only 10-18 on the road this season but I think they get the win. Just not sure they cover.
Winnipeg Jets (150) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170)
Pick: Bet Toronto
Notes: The Maple Leafs have lost two in a row but they are solid at home and Winnipeg is playing in a back-to-back. It’s a tad bit chalky but still see value in Toronto. $20 bet on the Maple Leafs.
Nashville Predators (170) at Carolina Hurricanes (-190)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Notes: Carolina dropped a pair to Detroit – blemishing their stellar home record. They should bounce back today but Nashville is playing some damn good hockey lately and should not be taken lightly.
Florida Panthers (141) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-156)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: Neither team is playing great right now. Tampa is 15-4 at home this season and have been on the road the past week and a half. So they should get a home win but this is game 1 of a mini-series with Florida and the Panthers should nab one of these. Some value on Florida for sure but I am only going to lean.
Philadelphia Flyers (154) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-172)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Notes: A lot of money is hammering Pittsburgh and they are very good at home. Metrics show value in Philly but I cannot trust them.
New Jersey Devils (187) at New York Rangers (-211)
Pick: Lean New York
Notes: Typically favor the team that lost the first game but its not always the case. New York should dominate again today.
Buffalo Sabres (275) at Washington Capitals (-350)
Pick: Lean Washington
Notes: Buffalo kept it close with Washington last Friday. I don’t see Washington letting up this time around. Puckline anyone?
New York Islanders (106) at Boston Bruins (-117)
Pick: Lean New York
Notes: Really close one for me. The Islanders are ho-hum on the road but I still give them a slight edge.
Chicago Blackhawks (-162) at Detroit Red Wings (145)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Notes: Coin flip game here which means value on Detroit at home. I’m playing things a bit tighter due to some losses lately but this was tough to hold off of.
Columbus Blue Jackets (174) at Dallas Stars (-195)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Notes: Columbus has lost 4 of 5 and is dreadful on the road. Dallas has lost 2 in a row but should bounce back today.
CLE (134) at CWS (-146)
Pitchers: A. Civale vs. L. Lynn
Pick: Bet $20 CWS
Notes: The White Sox are coming off a no-hitter and maybe there is some extra motivation for Lance Lynn to pitch another gem. But Aaron Civale has been solid for Cleveland this year and should make it tight. Ultimately, the White Sox offense should prevail and they end up with a win. $20 on the White Sox.
ARI (157) at WSH (-171)
Pitchers: M. Kelly vs. P. Corbin
Pick: Bet $20 WSH
Notes: Patrick Corbin looks to shake off a bad first start by taking it out on his former team. Arizona has lost 2 in a row and had a travel day yesterday to fly out East. Never a good time for a West team. The Nationals got the series win over St. Louis and should have some offense left in them to knock around Merill Kelly today. $20 bet on the Nats.
TEX (167) at TB (-183)
Pitchers: J. Lyles vs. R. Hill
Pick: Bet $20 TB
Notes: The Rays are off to a disappointing start to the season. Which is unfortunate since they could have capitalized on a slow start from the Yankees as well. After losing 2 in a row to Texas, I like them in a bounce back game but their offense needs to show up. This is a team with a -8 run differential over their last 5. Winning 1-0 games won’t be sustainable. I’m confident in them today. $20 bet on the Rays.
COL (231) at LAD (-258)
Pitchers: A. Gomber vs. J. Urias
Pick: Bet $20 COL
Notes: My lottery ticket was Pittsburgh yesterday and I almost jumped on them today. Instead, today’s lottery ticket is Colorado. Does an 0-5 team on the road stand a chance against the best team in baseball who has yet to lose at home? Probably not. But last night’s game was an indicator that they can keep it close. Gomber might have a losing record but his stats aren’t too far off from Urias’ – which should mean solid starts from both today. Hopefully the Colorado offense can do their part. It’s a flyer for sure but a $20 bet on the Rockies.
PHI (196) at NYM (-217)
Pitchers: Z. Eflin vs. J. deGrom
Pick: Lean NYM
MIA (152) at ATL (-165)
Pitchers: T. Rogers vs. I. Anderson
Pick: Lean MIA
SD (-165) at PIT (151)
Pitchers: C. Paddack vs. M. Keller
Pick: Lean PIT
Notes: This is showing all signs to bet the Pirates again.
SEA (-107) at BAL (-101)
Pitchers: M. Gonzales vs. M. Harvey
Pick: Lean BAL
BOS (140) at MIN (-152)
Pitchers: G. Richards vs. M. Pineda
Pick: Lean MIN
TOR () at KC ()
Pitchers: S. Matz vs. J. Junis
DET (141) at OAK (-153)
Pitchers: T. Skubal vs. S. Manaea
Pick: Lean DET
SEA () at BAL ()
Pitchers: J. Dunn vs. B. Zimmermann