Degen Show (4/15/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/15/22
MIN (108) at BOS (-126)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS
Notes: Maybe the Red Sox have found their offense.
For a team that was so dependent on their offense to lead the way last season, the first week of baseball has some of us worried they might not be as good as we thought.
Well, 14 combined runs the past 2 days has me a bit less worried.
Another team with some expectations this season is the Twins. But a 2-4 start, a .181 batting average and a combined 2 runs the past 2 games is far from ideal.
Minnesota continues to be a feast or famine offensive team. They have 20 runs scored and 9 home runs on the year.
That’s not a great ratio for sustained offensive success.
Nick Pivetta could give up some more of those homers today but I like the Red Sox producing against Ryan too.
$10 bet on Boston.
SF (-154) at CLE (130)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE
Notes: Two 4-2 teams face off in Cleveland today as the Giants hit the road for the first time this season.
Cleveland kicks off their home opener after winning 4 games in a row.
The Guardians have a +23 run differential – which by far is the best in baseball.
The Giants are coming off a series win over the Padres and will put Carlos Rodon on the mound today.
Rodon kicked off his Giants debut by throwing 5 solid innings with 12 Ks.
Zach Plesac also had a hell of a first start – tossing 5.2 scoreless innings with a 0.53 WHIP.
At home. With a plus line. I know they have not been tested so far but hard to resist Cleveland here.
$10 bet on the Guardians.
DET (116) at KC (-136)
Pick: Bet $10 DET
Notes: Remember when the Royals started the season off 2-0 and our good feelings about them from the preseason seemed to be becoming a reality?
Well, 4 losses later and we can see that this team has some major issues offensively and pitching-wise.
The starters don’t seem to be the main problem. Greinke had a pretty solid outing yesterday and today’s starter, Brad Keller, threw a gem in his first start against the mighty bats of Cleveland.
I know Tarik Skubal is hittable but based on his full season stats from last season, you can expect him to settle down and be a serviceable enough of a pitcher.
I get why KC is favored here but I like the value of Detroit.
$10 bet on the Tigers.
ATL (102) at SD (-120)
Pick: Bet $10 SD
Notes: MacKenzie Gore will make his MLB debut today as the Padres called up the lefty to fill in for Blake Snell today.
Gore was the third pick in the 2017 draft and while he has struggled with control the past few seasons – including a disastrous stint in Triple-A last season – he looked much better in Spring training this year.
Hard to say if Gore stays up. At some point, Clevinger and Snell will be back to join Darvish and Manaea.
But for today, the Padres’ vote is for Gore. And no hanging chad will get in the way of that.
Yeah, a joke from 22 years ago.
What could get in the way is the Braves’ bats.
Should they decide to show up this season.
Atlanta put up 16 runs against the Nationals 3 days ago but that could be their output for the month.
Take out that one game and they have a combined 7 runs over the course of their last 4 games.
The Padres’ offense is starting to click and put up 12 on Atlanta yesterday.
And I think they can do it again today and maybe give the rookie some breathing room to make mistakes.
$10 bet on San Diego.
ARI (198) at NYM (-240)
Pick: Lean NYM
WSH (-102) at PIT (-116)
Pick: Lean PIT
PHI (108) at MIA (-126)
Pick: Lean MIA
NYY (-210) at BAL (176)
Pick: Lean NYY
OAK (172) at TOR (-205)
Pick: Lean TOR
TB (122) at CWS (-144)
Pick: Lean TB
LAA (-120) at TEX (100)
Pick: Lean LAA
STL (136) at MIL (-162)
Pick: Lean MIL
CHC (108) at COL (-126)
Pick: Lean CHC
HOU (-134) at SEA (114)
Pick: Lean SEA
CIN (200) at LAD (-245)
Pick: Lean LAD
ATL (-2) at CLE (2)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL ML
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: ATL 119 – CLE 115
Notes: The Hawks easily took care of the Hornets and now head to Cleveland with a date with the Heat on the line.
Jarrett Allen will try to play today for the Cavs. He’s still not 100% but given that this is an elimination game, Allen will see if he propel his team to a win.
The Cavs were a different team with him on the court so maybe he can help them right the ship a bit.
Still, hard to believe they have a chance against Trae and the Hawks here.
Atlanta has turned into playoff Atlanta and ask the teams from last season that you should be afraid of playoff Atlanta.
The Hawks do have some road demons to exercise here. Atlanta was only 16-25 on the road this season and their effective field goal % is 3% lower on the road than at home.
But they should still win this one.
$10 moneyline bet on the Hawks.
NOP (3.5) at LAC (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 LAC ML
Total: 216 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: NOP 109 – LAC 120
Notes: I bet on the Clippers to book their ticket to the playoffs and well, nope, they couldn’t get past KAT and the T-Wolves.
So now they get to take on Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum and the Pelicans.
I thought the Spurs would knock them out and was wrong.
So maybe just book the Pelicans’ spot now because, I’m on LA here.
Sure, CJ has this team playing some competitive basketball but I just think PG13 and his ragtag group of role players should have enough to get it done today.
$10 moneyline bet on the Clippers.
New York Islanders (-153) at Montreal Canadiens (128)
Pick: Lean New York
Notes: Islanders are coming off a loss to the Penguins last night but should be able to beat the Canadiens today.
Montreal is riding a 3-game losing streak and shit the bed against Columbus.
Trust me. I know.
I like the Islanders here in a lean. Implied probability says to take New York but still too much chalk than I want to eat on this team.
Winnipeg Jets (220) at Florida Panthers (-275)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: The Panthers are 11-1 over their last 12 games. They are 31-6 at home this season.
Hard to believe they lose this one.
Lean on Florida.