Degen Show Part (4/17/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/17/21
CLE (1.5) at CHI (-1.5)
Pick: Bet $20 CLE
Total: 212.5 (Bet $20 Over – 223)
Predicted Score: CLE 114 – CHI 109
Notes: The Bulls have lost 5 in a row and without LaVine on the court, this team is like the Orlando magic of earlier this season. Cleveland dropped their last game to Warriors but have been playing better on the road as of late and I have them pulling out the win tonight. $20 bet on the Cavs.
SAS (9.5) at PHX (-9.5)
Pick: Bet $20 SAS
Total: 230.5 (Lean Under – 228)
Predicted Score: SAS 111 – PHX 117
Notes: The Suns have won 4 in a row and 3 out of 4 have been laughers. The Spurs played last night and lost a close one to the Blazers but the Spurs seem to shoot better on the road this season. The Suns are not losing this one but I also don’t have them winning by 10. $20 bet on the Spurs.
UTA (-6.5) at LAL (6.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: UTA 113 – LAL 110
Notes: Other than a blip against Washington, the Jazz are rolling. But they hit the road where they aren’t as great. Still good. Just not great. They could be tested if Donovan Mitchell misses some time with an ankle injury from last night’s game. The Lakers are still dealing with a slew of injuries but without Mitchell for the Jazz, maybe they keep it close.
DET (4.5) at WAS (-4.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: DET 114 – WAS 112
Notes: Detroit should have their players return to the lineup tonight. They were not needed against OKC last night but will be needed against Washington who have won 4 of 5.
GSW (4.5) at BOS (-4.5)
Pick: Lean GSW
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: GSW 115 – BOS 112
Notes: Both teams have some good winning streaks on the line tonight. The Warriors have won their last 2 road games but on the season have not been great. And Boston is a tough place to win at. I have it close so a lean on the Warriors.
MEM (8.5) at MIL (-8.5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 236.5 (Lean Over – 239)
Predicted Score: MEM 122 – MIL 117
Notes: The Bucks are 18-8 at home but Memphis has been good on the road. I have this slated as a possible upset. Just not confident enough to bet it.
St. Louis Blues (-129) at Arizona Coyotes (117)
Pick: Bet $20 Arizona
Notes: Arizona can’t lose them all, right? I don’t have them winning and I do wish the payout was bigger – but there is enough of a plus line for me to take a flyer on them. They are a better home team than road team and while St. Louis has gotten some nice wins, I am still not entirely sold on them.
Edmonton Oilers (110) at Winnipeg Jets (-122)
Pick: Bet $20 Winnipeg
Notes: Man, I hate the Jets. But they are playing pretty good right now. They should get the win today. Money is hitting Edmonton hard so that gave me some pause. But a $20 bet on the Jets.
New Jersey Devils (203) at New York Rangers (-231)
Pick: Lean New York
Notes: Devils have lost 4 in a row including 2 in a row to the Rangers. Make it 5 and 3 respectively.
Washington Capitals (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (122)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Notes: Washington dropped a shocker to the Sabres but easily handled the Flyers a few days ago. I see some value in Philly here but money is hammering the Capitals and payout should be bigger for me to consider the Flyers.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-330) at Buffalo Sabres (265)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
Notes: The Penguins are over .500 on the road after winning their last 3 road games. Is there a chance for a Buffalo upset? Maybe. They beat the Capitals and have not looked dreadful lately.
Ottawa Senators (250) at Montreal Canadiens (-310)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Notes: Montreal is decent enough at home and I know Ottawa is terrible – but maybe some value on the Senators here. I only have them winning 25% of the time and implied probability is 29. So not quite there.
Florida Panthers (138) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-153)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: These teams played a tight one on Thursday and I can see that again. So definitely value on Florida. But they have not played well on the road lately and Tampa is tough to beat at home.
Chicago Blackhawks (-150) at Detroit Red Wings (130)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Notes: Coin flip here, really. Detroit dominated Chicago on Thursday and have won 3 in a row. Red Wings are pretty good at home and with a plus line, definitely worth a look.
Nashville Predators (159) at Carolina Hurricanes (-178)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Notes: Carolina beat the Predators on Thursday but Detroit showed they can be beaten at home. Still, I have Carolina winning this one but not paying for it.
Columbus Blue Jackets (163) at Dallas Stars (-182)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Notes: Columbus has lost 4 in a row including Thursday’s loss against Dallas. Stars should Pick up the win again today.
San Jose Sharks (155) at Minnesota Wild (-177)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: I paid for this one yesterday and made a few dollars. I’m off of it today.
ATL (-124) at CHC (115)
Pitchers: H. Ynoa vs. T. Williams
Pick: Bet $20 ATL
Notes: Ynoa has been pretty good to start the season and Cubs are just a disaster right now. You are paying a little more than average for the Braves on the road but competition is dictating that. Atlanta has a chance to sweep this Cubs team.
CLE (120) at CIN (-130)
Pitchers: T. McKenzie vs. S. Gray
Pick: Bet $20 CIN
Notes: Looking forward to Sonny Gray getting this start. He has missed out due to some back issues but should be set to get a win for the Reds. Cincinnati is pretty darn good at home this season and they should get the win today.
SF (120) at MIA (-130)
Pitchers: A. Sanchez vs. S. Alcantara
Pick: Bet $20 MIA
Notes: Shocker, right? Solid pitching match-up but I love Alacantara. He pitches much better at home while Sanchez is more vulnerable on the road. You are paying more for the Marlins than you typically would this year but still not crazy.
BAL (128) at TEX (-138)
Pitchers: D. Kremer vs. D. Dunning
Pick: Bet $20 TEX
Notes: Dunning has looked good so far this season and Kremer has not. This is one of the biggest lines you have had to pay for Texas since the beginning of the season. But I still like them.
ARI (-101) at WSH (-107)
Pitchers: L. Weaver vs. E. Fedde
Pick: Lean WSH
Notes: Money is hammering Washington right now and you are finding some value on them with this line compared to previous home lines (average has been -115 at home). But Weaver has been outpitching Fedde so far.
TB (-104) at NYY (-104)
Pitchers: T. Glasnow vs. J. Montgomery
Pick: Lean TB
Notes: Glasnow is pitching amazing right now. Still don’t love Tampa’s offense but it is playing better recently and better than the Yankees’.
TOR (-108) at KC (-100)
Pitchers: S. Matz vs. M. Minor
Pick: Lean TOR
Notes: Matz has pitched well so far but not enough betting data for my liking to make a decision.
STL (-109) at PHI (101)
Pitchers: K. Kim vs. M. Moore
Pick: Lean PHI
Notes: The money is coming in on St. Louis here so keep an eye on that line movement.
CWS () at BOS ()
Pitchers: D. Cease vs. N. Pivetta
DET (130) at OAK (-141)
Pitchers: C. Mize vs. C. Irvin
Pick: Lean OAK
Notes: The money is coming in on Detroit right now with Mize on the mound. I still like Oakland to pull this out.
NYM (-109) at COL (101)
Pitchers: J. deGrom vs. C. Gonzalez
Pick: Lean Mets
Notes: In a short game, deGrom could go 7. But it is Colorado so who knows. This is the cheapest you will pay for deGrom though (averaging a -227 moneyline in his starts this year).
TOR () at KC ()
Pitchers: T. Milone vs. E. Santana
PIT (119) at MIL (-129)
Pitchers: T. Cahill vs. B. Anderson
Pick: Lean MIL
Notes: Some value betting the Pirates here but not enough to bet them. Money is hammering the Brewers here but line movement is fishy.
NYM () at COL ()
Pitchers: J. Lucchesi vs. G. Marquez
LAD (-121) at SD (112)
Pitchers: C. Kershaw vs. Y. Darvish
Pick: Lean SD
Notes: This could be the one that the Padres nab. Darvish has looked good but he has been hittable at home. Can’t easily fade Kershaw so I cannot bet on the Padres. But it is tempting.
MIN (-108) at LAA (-100)
Pitchers: M. Shoemaker vs. J. Quintana
Pick: Lean MIN
Notes: The Twins need a win and could find one against Quintana. The moneylines are right in average for both teams’ respective home/away moneyline averages this season.
HOU (-129) at SEA (119)
Pitchers: Z. Greinke vs. C. Flexen
Pick: Lean SEA
Notes: Greinke has pitched better on the road this year and money is hammering the Astros. But keep an eye on the line movement in case it’s a trap.