Degen Show Part (4/19/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/19/21
HOU (9.5) at MIA (-9.5)
Pick: Bet $20 HOU
Total: 216.5 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: HOU 112 – MIA 115
Notes: Jimmy Butler missed the Heat’s win over the Nets yesterday with a sore ankle. He should be available today but nothing is certain on that. Bam led the way yesterday and gets a nice matchup against Christian Wood – who led the Rockets to a win over the Magic yesterday. Victor Oladipo remains out for Miami and has no timetable for return. I am going to take a calculated flyer on Houston here. They have been shooting the ball much better lately and Miami is a bit banged up.
SAS (-1) at IND (1)
Pick: Bet $20 SAS
Total: 231.5 (Lean Under – 231)
Predicted Score: SAS 118 – IND 113
Notes: The Spurs are 15-10 on the road and coming off a big win over Phoenix. The Pacers have lost 2 in a row after yesterday’s loss to the Hawks but they return home after playing 4 of their last 5 on the road. Unfortunately for them, they aren’t a great home team with a 9-16 home record. I like the Spurs to grab the win today.
OKC (10.5) at WAS (-10.5)
Pick: Bet $20 WAS
Total: 229.5 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: OKC 106 – WAS 118
Notes: Washington has won 4 in a row and are creeping towards a playoff spot in the East. The Thunder have lost 10 in a row after yesterday’s loss to the Raptors. They have managed to keep their last 2 games close but this is their third game in four nights and they have had some laughers lately.
CLE (-2.5) at DET (2.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: CLE 110 – DET 106
Notes: Wayne Ellington and Mason Plumlee will sit for rest for Detroit today as this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Cleveland has lost 4 of 5 games and is 9-20 on the road. I cannot trust either of these teams for a bet but I still think Cleveland gets the win.
GSW (7.5) at PHI (-7.5)
Pick: Lean GSW
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: GSW 115 – PHI 119
Notes: I wonder if both Curry brothers went out partying since both are listed as questionable in today’s game. If Steph doesn’t play, this is an absolute slaughter. With Steph on the floor, anything seems possible. Except winning. The Warriors are 11-19 on the road and facing a Philly team that is 22-5 at home. The Sixers have won 4 in a row – beating Dallas, Brooklyn and the Clippers. Still, I don’t have the Sixers covering if Steph is playing. A lean on the Warriors.
CHI (5.5) at BOS (-5.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: CHI 111 – BOS 113
Notes: Zach Lavine is still out for the Bulls and the Celtics have a load of question marks today. Kemba Walker is questionable as is Jaylen Brown – who missed their win over the Warriors the other day. Tatum should play but has a probable tag and Fournier will miss the game today too. If Tatum plays, I like Boston to win their 7th straight game and improve to 19-10 at home this season.
PHX (3) at MIL (-3)
Pick: Lean PHX
Total: 235 (Lean Over – 236)
Predicted Score: PHX 119 – MIL 117
Notes: The Bucks lost to the Grizzlies on Saturday. It was their 9th home loss of the year. Hard to imagine they drop 2 home games in a row but Phoenix is 17-7 on the road and have won 4 of 5. Their last game was a stinker against the Spurs. They will look to rebound today. Should be a fun one but I cannot bet it.
MEM (5) at DEN (-5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 228 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: MEM 117 – DEN 116
Notes: Memphis is playing some damn good basketball right now and even with some regression, their shooting would still remain as one of the best in league regarding EFG % lately. Denver has won their last 2 in convincing fashion but could get a challenge today. I was tempted to moneyline Memphis here as a flyer but I only have them barely winning and the payout isn’t as high as I’d like it.
UTA (-5.5) at LAL (5.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: UTA 113 – LAL 116
Notes: Donovan Mitchell remains out and the Lakers are coming off a win over Utah on Saturday. Can they do it again? Maybe.
Chicago Blackhawks (123) at Nashville Predators (-136)
Pick: Bet $20 Chicago
Notes: The Blackhawks can still get some wins. The Predators are the better team but I cannot say markedly better. I like Chicago at this plus line. Wish it was more but isn’t that always the case?
Carolina Hurricanes (105) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-115)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Notes: Carolina is decent enough on the road and could nab a win today. Just not enough value.
Columbus Blue Jackets (203) at Florida Panthers (-231)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: The Blue Jackets are mired in a losing streak and Florida is damn good at home. They should get the win but it’s a bit too rich for my blood.
Detroit Red Wings (196) at Dallas Stars (-222)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Notes: Detroit has not been reliable on the road but I do like this payout. Dallas has improved a bit at home recently.
Minnesota Wild (-141) at Arizona Coyotes (128)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: The Wild beat Arizona last Wednesday but Minnesota is a different team on the road than at home. I hit on my value play of Arizona Saturday and not sure they can do it again.
Ottawa Senators (187) at Calgary Flames (-211)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Notes: Calgary should get the win but the bookies are squeezing you here. Ottawa has played a bit better lately and could be a sneaky value play.
Montreal Canadiens (113) at Edmonton Oilers (-124)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Notes: Montreal is coming off a bad loss to the Senators on Saturday but look to get another win over the Oilers. Montreal isn’t that bad on the road and I do like them here in a bounce back game.
San Jose Sharks (190) at Vegas Golden Knights (-230)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: Not eating this chalk… But I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was tempted.
CWS (-118) at BOS (109)
Pitchers: L. Giolito vs. N. Eovaldi
Pick: Bet $20 CWS
Notes: Eovaldi has pitched quite well this season and Giolito has struggled on the road. But the White Sox are poised to get hot at some point and this could be a turning point.
MIL (134) at SD (-146)
Pitchers: B. Woodruff vs. J. Musgrove
Pick: Bet $20 SD
Notes: Great pitching matchup here with Woodruff playing above what I expected. But Musgrove has been almost unhittable. The Brewers offense is starting to heat up a bit but San Diego will pick things up soon too. I am hoping that day is today.
STL (-118) at WSH (109)
Pitchers: J. Flaherty vs. J. Ross
Pick: Bet $20 STL
Notes: Ross has been damn good so far and Flaherty has wavered on the road this season. But I like the Cardinals to get the win today – even if its after Ross has left the game.
TB (110) at KC (-120)
Pitchers: J. Fleming vs. D. Duffy
Pick: Bet $20 KC
Notes: Am I really betting the Royals as a favorite over the Rays? A Rays team that just humiliated the Yankees? I guess so. In Duffy I trust.
SF (-109) at PHI (101)
Pitchers: K. Gausman vs. C. Anderson
Pick: Lean SF
Notes: The Giants are not terrible and Gausman has pitched better on the road this season. The Phillies have a -12 run differential the past 10 days and that has to be a bit concerning.
TEX (190) at LAA (-210)
Pitchers: K. Arihara vs. D. Bundy
Pick: Lean LAA
Notes: Bundy has looked sharp this season and the Angels should get the win today. Money is hammering them right now and that line is getting worse.
LAD (-201) at SEA (183)
Pitchers: D. May vs. J. Sheffield
Pick: Lean LAD
Notes: Sheffield has been terrible at home so far this season and LA will look to pad their MLB leading win total in this series.