Degen Show Part (4/23/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/23/21
CLE (1) at CHA (-1)
Pick: Bet $20 CLE
Total: 209 (Lean Under – 209)
Predicted Score: CLE 105 – CHA 104
Notes: Charlotte does not look like a very good team right now. Over their last 5 games, their lone win was over a depleted Blazers team and their losses were by an average of 14 points. The Cavs aren’t very good either but they beat this same Charlotte team by 13 a week and a half ago. This is a terrible game to bet on. No one should do it. $20 bet on the Cavs.
WAS (-9) at OKC (9)
Pick: Bet $20 WAS
Total: 230 (Lean Under – 230)
Predicted Score: WAS 121 – OKC 109
Notes: OKC has lost 12 in a row and the Wizards are on a 6 game winning streak. Washington is only 11-17 on the road this season but went 4-2 on their last road trip and should get the win today. The Wiz beat the Thunder by 12 last time they played and I have them winning by about the same this go around – even on the road. So a $20 bet on Washington.
MEM (3.5) at POR (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $20 MEM
Total: 232.5 (Lean Under – 231)
Predicted Score: MEM 116 – POR 115
Notes: The Blazers got Lillard back for their last game and lost a close one to the Nuggets. But even when he was there, they were not looking sharp – only 3-7 over their last games. They are 1-4 at home recently and their effective field goal % is regressing. Memphis is playing some good basketball lately – though their last effort was a bomb against the Clippers 2 days ago. Portland will try to get back to the win column and maybe they do – but not sure they cover. $20 bet on the Grizzlies.
DEN (-3) at GSW (3)
Pick: Bet $20 GSW
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: DEN 112 – GSW 113
Notes: The Nuggets have adjusted to life without Jamal Murray and have won 4 in a row. The Warriors are playing much better lately and Curry has been red hot – though he had a so-so game against Washington. But the Warriors are back home where they are 17-10 and shooting lights out. I think they can pull out the win tonight. But I will take the points. $20 bet on the Warriors.
BOS (4.5) at BKN (-4.5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 229.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: BOS 116 – BKN 111
Notes: Kemba and Tatum did end up playing yesterday in Boston’s win over the Suns. Fournier and Brown could be back today for them. Brooklyn is without Durant and Harden so Kyrie will be by himself to fight his former team. I hate the Celtics in the back-to-back but at full strength, I think they have a shot at winning here.
MIA (-4.5) at ATL (4.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: MIA 108 – ATL 104
Notes: Tyler Herro will probably miss the game for Miami but the big injury news is that Trae Young will miss a few games with an ankle sprain. Without him, not sure of how Atlanta fairs. Still, I hate Miami on the road and while I have them winning now, I don’t have them covering.
LAC (-11.5) at HOU (11.5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 221 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: LAC 119 – HOU 107
Notes: The Clippers have won 4 of 5 and their lone loss was a 3 point loss on the road in Philly. My issue with them winning is that they don’t always cover the big lines. Overall, Houston’s offense has looked like absolute shit. So yeah, LA probably covers but I am not touching this game.
Nashville Predators (-125) at Chicago Blackhawks (105)
Pick: Bet $20 Chicago
Notes: These teams have split two games so far. I like Chicago with a plus line but not in love with it. That said, I don’t love anything today. So a $20 bet on Chicago.
Philadelphia Flyers (140) at New York Rangers (-165)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Notes: The Flyers got the win over the rangers yesterday and that was probably their chance. But still, at this plus line, the value is there for Philly.
Boston Bruins (-340) at Buffalo Sabres (270)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
Notes: Boston took care of Buffalo yesterday and probably do today. But beating a team 3 times in a row is always tough. Buffalo has value once again today.
Montreal Canadiens (-105) at Calgary Flames (-105)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Notes: This is a coin flip game and the line shows that as well. Montreal is better on the road than they are at home and the Flames are mediocre all around. Still, slight edge to the home team here. Lean Calgary.
Minnesota Wild (-157) at Los Angeles Kings (142)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: The Wild have a nice win streak going and that could continue today but the Kings can be a dangerous team. I have this as a close game and as such, I cannot justify the chalk on Minnesota here.
KC (-113) at DET (105)
Pitchers: M. Minor vs. C. Mize
Pick: Bet $20 DET
Notes: Mike Minor has pitched well this year – especially on the road. But I like what I have seen from Mize and getting some kind of plus line for the Tigers here is nice.
TOR (141) at TB (-154)
Pitchers: S. Matz vs. T. Glasnow
Pick: Bet $20 TB
Notes: I like what near elite Stephen Matz has done for Toronto but Glasnow is goddamn unhittable. The Rays are playing better baseball lately and while it is chalky, I’ll bet on them to win.
LAA (128) at HOU (-139)
Pitchers: A. Heaney vs. Z. Greinke
Pick: Bet $20 HOU
Notes: I hit Houston yesterday so I am worried about double-dipping. And Greinke has not looked great at home this season. But still, it’s within my range to bet the Astros here.
SEA (121) at BOS (-132)
Pitchers: Y. Kikuchi vs. M. Perez
Pick: Bet $20 BOS
Notes: I hit on Seattle yesterday and shifting to the Red Sox today. Both teams playing some good baseball – shockingly enough. Kikuchi has not been awful and has a decent road ERA. Perez has been hittable but I like him to have a stronger outing today.
MIA (120) at SF (-130)
Pitchers: S. Alcantara vs. A. Wood
Pick: Bet $20 SF
Notes: I missed on Miami yesterday and I am fading them today. I love Alcantara on the mound but he’s better at home than on the road. Wood should give a solid start for the Giants and while the line is starting to get out of my comfort zone, I like them to pull out the win.
MIL () at CHC ()
Pitchers: B. Anderson vs. K. Hendricks
OAK (-131) at BAL (121)
Pitchers: C. Irvin vs. J. Lopez
Pick: Lean OAK
Notes: Some sharp money is hitting Baltimore here. Oakland’s offense has come to life though and Lopez’ home ERA should scare you off Baltimore. But Irvin has not been great away from Oakland either.
WSH (274) at NYM (-311)
Pitchers: E. Fedde vs. J. deGrom
Pick: Lean WSH
Notes: Huge value play with Washington today. Is deGrom that good? Yes. Yes he is. But even this line is juiced for one of his starts. The Mets bullpen sucks and their offense sucks right now too. Swept by the fucking Cubs? deGrom’s average home line has been -257 on the season. Fedde has shown good results on the road and sharp money is hitting the Nats. So yeah, all signs point to betting them.
NYY (-140) at CLE (129)
Pitchers: J. Montgomery vs. L. Allen
Pick: Lean NYY
Notes: I guess the Yankees win this one? I am not giving up that chalk on this Yankees team though. New York has a -14 run differential over their last 10 days which, yes, is better than Cleveland’s -15 but still…
ARI (152) at ATL (-166)
Pitchers: L. Weaver vs. H. Ynoa
Pick: Lean ATL
Notes: The line movement priced me out of Atlanta but I like Ynoa at home.
TEX () at CWS ()
Pitchers: D. Dunning vs. D. Cease
PIT (137) at MIN (-149)
Pitchers: J. Brubaker vs. J. Happ
Pick: Lean MIN
Notes: The value is the Pirates. Are the Twins as bad as their numbers show? I think they can get the win today but Brubaker has been good and Happ hittable at home.
CIN (-104) at STL (-104)
Pitchers: S. Gray vs. K. Kim
Pick: Lean STL
Notes: Gray looks to get back on track after an iffy first start. The Reds are really dropping off lately. They have a +17 run differential on the season but that is -6 over their last 10 days.
PHI (100) at COL (-108)
Pitchers: V. Velasquez vs. G. Marquez
Pick: Lean PHI
Notes: One of my least favorite games on the board as I cannot get a solid read on either team other than they both kind of suck.
SD (124) at LAD (-135)
Pitchers: Y. Darvish vs. C. Kershaw
Pick: Lean SD
Notes: I hit the Padres yesterday. Not sure they can win two in a row but line movement looks a little trappish.