Degen Show Part (4/24/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/24/21
CHI (5) at MIA (-5)
Pick: Bet MIA
Total: 210 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: CHI 104 – MIA 110
Notes: Zach LaVine is still out for Chicago and Victor Oladipo remains out for Miami. The Bulls are a bipolar team – beating the Hornets 17 after losing to Cleveland by 16. Miami is a much better home team than road team but their EFG% has regressed a bit the past few weeks. Still, I like the Heat to win this one and cover. It’s close but a $20 bet on Miami.
TOR (3.5) at NYK (-3.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 216 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: TOR 110 – NYK 112
Notes: The Knicks are 20-10 at home and have won 8 games in a row. The Raptors head to town as winners of 4 after beating Brooklyn 3 days ago. Toronto’s shooting has been lights out lately and the should be able to keep this close.
PHI (7.5) at MIL (-7.5)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 230.5 (Lean Under – 230)
Predicted Score: PHI 116 – MIL 114
Notes: Mr. Glass – Joel Embiid – is questionable with shoulder soreness tonight. The Sixers have lost 3 in a row including a game 2 days ago to Milwaukee. Philly is 17-13 on the road while Milwaukee is 19-10 at home. But the Bucks have been beatable at home – losing to the Suns and Memphis recently. The game depends on Embiid. If he plays, I like Philly. If not, this could be a Bucks play.
DET (5.5) at IND (-5.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: DET 113 – IND 116
Notes: Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner remain out and Doug McDermott and Jeremy Lamb are questionable. The Pacers got into the win column by beating OKC. But they are only 10-17 at home this season. Detroit has lost 3 of 4 and each loss has been pretty bad ones. I just cannot trust Indy.
SAS (2) at NOP (-2)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 228 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: SAS 115 – NOP 110
Notes: DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay are questionable for tonight. Which makes it tough to bet on the Spurs here. In general, I love San Antonio on the road. They are 16-10 and their EFG% is better than at home. New Orleans is 16-15 at home and coming off a blowout win over the Magic two days ago. It was a much-needed win that broke a losing streak. If I knew if DeRozan was playing I would probably moneyline the Spurs. Only a lean for now.
LAL (1.5) at DAL (-1.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 216.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: LAL 113 – DAL 110
Notes: Anthony Davis made his debut and only played a few minutes. He is probable today and should see a steady increase of minutes. I had the Lakers beating Dallas in the last game and they lost by 5. I still have them winning today but I’m not going to do this to myself again.
MIN (13.5) at UTA (-13.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 233 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: MIN 114 – UTA 120
Notes: Donovan Mitchell is still out for Utah and yet this line is still so big. The T-Wolves are 6-25 on the road this season and Utah is 26-3 and the Jazz have been able to handle lesser teams with ease – even without Mitchell. I just can’t quite get there.
HOU (13.5) at DEN (-13.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: HOU 111 – DEN 117
Notes: John Wall is out and Christian Wood is banged up too – but should play. Denver lost twice last night. They lost the game and lost Will Barton to an injury. His status for today is uncertain. Denver is 20-10 at home and should bounce back and get the win today. I just don’t want to eat this chalk.
Colorado Avalanche (-157) at St. Louis Blues (141)
Pick: Bet $20 Colorado
Notes: Colorado picked right up where they left off before a COVID break and they should nab another win today. The Blues have lost 3 in a row and are only 7-11-4 at home. $20 bet on the Avalanche here.
Minnesota Wild (-135) at San Jose Sharks (115)
Pick: Bet $20 Minnesota
Notes: This is probably a bit of a trap game. The Wild have won 6 in a row and just swept the Sharks in a mini-series a week ago. San Jose has been off since Wednesday and should be rested while Minnesota played yesterday. Still, I have the Wild winning this one and the chalk is not terrible. $20 bet on the Wild.
New Jersey Devils (232) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-267)
Pick: Lean New Jersey
Notes: Yeah, yeah, I know. NJ does not have a chance here. But that payout is nice and can the Penguins beat them 3-straight games? Probably. Pittsburgh has only 3 losses at home this season. The Devils won’t make it 4.
Carolina Hurricanes (-122) at Florida Panthers (110)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: Carolina took the game on Thursday and did so in pretty convincing fashion. I still like Florida here – especially with the plus line – but the way the Hurricanes are playing right now gives me some pause.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-126) at Winnipeg Jets (114)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Notes: The Maple Leafs broke their losing streak with a win over Winnipeg Thursday. I like them to win again today but line movement and money has me staying off this one.
Dallas Stars (-205) at Detroit Red Wings (182)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Notes: I hit on Detroit Thursday but its looking like Dallas wins the 3rd game of the 4 game series here. Just too chalky for me to bet.
Montreal Canadiens (-105) at Calgary Flames (-115)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Notes: Calgary does not do well in these miniseries with the same opponent. They lost the first game yesterday and I am leaning them to win today – but I cannot bet them.
Washington Capitals (110) at New York Islanders (-130)
Pick: Lean Washington
Notes: What a game and what a win by the Capitals on Thursday. Can they do it again? I think so. But I am not putting money on this one. Too close.
Vegas Golden Knights (-270) at Anaheim Ducks (234)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: I really almost took Vegas here. They dominated the Ducks last week and are just red hot right now.
Arizona Coyotes (-105) at Los Angeles Kings (-115)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Notes: I like Los Angeles here but they played yesterday while the Coyotes have had a few days rest.
Ottawa Senators (124) at Vancouver Canucks (-137)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Notes: The money is hammering Ottawa here. They have won 4 of 5 games and dominated the Canucks on Thursday. The payout is not there for me and Vancouver did just beat Toronto with some offense. Maybe they can get that going today.
SEA (177) at BOS (-195)
Pitchers: C. Flexen (ERA: 3.38 – Road ERA: 9) vs. N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.1 – Home ERA: 2.97)
Pick: Bet $20 BOS
Notes: I hit on Boston yesterday and I like them to get another win today. Eovaldi has been the staff ace so far and the bats are not relenting.
KC (-110) at DET (102)
Pitchers: B. Singer (ERA: 3.83 – Road ERA: 0) vs. M. Boyd (ERA: 2.12 – Home ERA: 2.21)
Pick: Bet $20 DET
Notes: Maybe I am chasing waterfalls here but I like Boyd to pitch a gem and the Tigers to bounce back today.
CIN (112) at STL (-121)
Pitchers: W. Miley (ERA: 2.25 – Road ERA: 0) vs. J. Gant (ERA: 3.21 – Home ERA: 5.4)
Pick: Bet $20 STL
Notes: I cannot trust the Reds right now. Even with the pitching advantage with Miley over Gant, the Reds’ bullpen and offense just cannot hang on for them.
NYY (-116) at CLE (107)
Pitchers: G. Cole (ERA: 1.86 – Road ERA: 1.5) vs. S. Bieber (ERA: 2.47 – Home ERA: 2.95)
Pick: Bet $20 NYY
Notes: Great pitching match-up here but the Yankees’ bats are starting to wake up a bit while Cleveland’s is almost nonexistent.
PIT (185) at MIN (-203)
Pitchers: T. Cahill (ERA: 9.69 – Road ERA: 14.63) vs. M. Pineda (ERA: 1 – Home ERA: 1.38)
Pick: Lean MIN
Notes: Too much to ask for a team with a -20 run differential over their last 10 days.
MIL (-110) at CHC (102)
Pitchers: F. Peralta (ERA: 2.25 – Road ERA: 0) vs. A. Alzolay (ERA: 6.24 – Home ERA: 7.2)
Pick: Lean MIL
Notes: Maybe Chicago needed a Mets series to revive their offense. I like Peralta on the mound for the Brewers but not in love with this game.
WSH (165) at NYM (-181)
Pitchers: J. Ross (ERA: 5.96 – Road ERA: 0) vs. M. Stroman (ERA: 0.9 – Home ERA: 0)
Pick: Lean WSH
Notes: After deGrom’s gem, Stroman could be inspired. But the line is a bit juiced for one of his starts and that Mets’ bullpen waiting to lose it for him.
LAA (116) at HOU (-126)
Pitchers: G. Canning (ERA: 5.35 – Road ERA: 5.35) vs. J. Odorizzi (ERA: 11.25 – Home ERA: 14.52)
Pick: Lean LAA
Notes: Maybe there was a reason that Odorizzi was available in the offseason.
TOR (105) at TB (-114)
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 1.8 – Road ERA: 0) vs. B. Honeywell Jr. (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0)
Pick: Lean TOR
Notes: Panther’s boy Robbie Ray has looked good so far this year and maybe the Blue Jays grab another from Tampa today.
OAK () at BAL ()
Pitchers: C. Bassitt (ERA: 4.48 – Road ERA: 3.6) vs. Undecided (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0)
TEX (151) at CWS (-164)
Pitchers: K. Gibson (ERA: 2.56 – Road ERA: 7.61) vs. D. Keuchel (ERA: 5.21 – Home ERA: 5.4)
Pick: Lean CWS
Notes: Too much for me to lay for the White Sox while Texas has been playing spoiler to many teams this season.
ARI (179) at ATL (-197)
Pitchers: M. Bumgarner (ERA: 8.86 – Road ERA: 7) vs. D. Smyly (ERA: 5.73 – Home ERA: 9)
Pick: Lean ATL
Notes: The money is hitting Arizona and giving some trust to Bumgarner – who has had a few solid outings this season. Maybe some value on Arizona here with that plus line but it’s a little trappy for my liking.
PHI (-192) at COL (175)
Pitchers: A. Nola (ERA: 2.23 – Road ERA: 5.4) vs. A. Senzatela (ERA: 5.6 – Home ERA: 4.21)
Pick: Lean PHI
Notes: Maybe Nola goes 9 and gets the win. Or you overpay for him and the bullpen gets shelled.
MIA (132) at SF (-143)
Pitchers: P. Lopez (ERA: 4.44 – Road ERA: 13.5) vs. K. Gausman (ERA: 2.5 – Home ERA: 7.5)
Pick: Lean SF
Notes: Yeah, the Giants are not that shitty afterall.
SD (130) at LAD (-141)
Pitchers: B. Snell (ERA: 4.38 – Road ERA: 135) vs. T. Bauer (ERA: 2.49 – Home ERA: 0)
Pick: Lean SD
Notes: The sharps are on San Diego here and maybe they get it done again. Bauer is underpriced versus his season average – mostly because of the matchup against Snell.