Degen Show Part (4/26/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/26/21
PHX (-2) at NYK (2)
Pick: Bet $20 ML NYK
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: PHX 109 – NYK 117
Notes: The Knicks have won 9 in a row and the Suns have lost 2 in a row – and playing their 5th straight road game. The Knicks defense has been playing extremely well and this is becoming a tough team to beat at home. Besides that, they are shooting well – and even better at home. $20 moneyline bet on the Knicks.
CHI (4) at MIA (-4)
Pick: Bet MIA
Total: 206.5 (Lean Over – 209)
Predicted Score: CHI 102 – MIA 107
Notes: Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are questionable and Andre Iguodala is out for Miami. Zach Lavine is still out with Covid-19. The Heat beat the Bulls by 5 the other night and ended in a push. I’ll double dip and say Miami owes me one. $20 bet on the Heat.
MEM (4.5) at DEN (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 MEM
Total: 228.5 (Lean Over – 241)
Predicted Score: MEM 119 – DEN 122
Notes: Will Barton is still out for Denver. I hit on Memphis yesterday and I like them to keep it close again today. These two teams went to double OT a week ago in a narrow win by the Nuggets. $20 bet on the Grizzlies.
LAL (-9.5) at ORL (9.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 211.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: LAL 112 – ORL 107
Notes: The Magic have lost 5 in a row and the only close game was against the Rockets. The Lakers have lost 3 in a row after dropping a pair to Dallas. Lakers should win this one and maybe they cover – but I can’t get there.
SAS (-1.5) at WAS (1.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 229.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: SAS 110 – WAS 111
Notes: Washington has won 8 in a row but other than the win over the Warriors, the competition has been light. San Antonio isn’t a huge test – but more so than Detroit and OKC. The Spurs have won 4 of 5 and are 17-10 on the road. This game is too close for my liking.
ATL (-5.5) at DET (5.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: ATL 112 – DET 110
Notes: The Hawks won on Sunday against Milwaukee but Trae Young is once again listed as out. Detroit has lost 3 in a row and are suffering from some very poor shooting. I like Atlanta here to win but I cannot get to the points needed to cover.
OKC (11.5) at PHI (-11.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: OKC 109 – PHI 113
Notes: Ben Simmons is out and Joel Embiid is listed as questionable. The Sixers have lost 4 in a row and have looked mortal the past few weeks. But OKC has lost 13 straight and have only managed to keep it within 10 points a handful of times.
CLE (9.5) at TOR (-9.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 217.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: CLE 106 – TOR 109
Notes: Colllin Sexton is still listed as out and the Cavs lost by almost double digits last night. Before the Raptors can into the Knicks buzzsaw, they were playing well. They should win again but this is too many points for me to trust them with.
UTA (-10) at MIN (10)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 229.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: UTA 117 – MIN 108
Notes: Donovan Mitchell is still out and the T-Wolves shocked the Jazz on Saturday. I doubt they do it again but maybe they can keep it within 9.
LAC (-3.5) at NOP (3.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: LAC 114 – NOP 111
Notes: Kawhi Leonard appears to still be out as are Luke Kennard, Patrick Beverley, and Serge Ibaka. Steven Adams is questionable for New Orleans. The Clippers have won 4 in a row and the Pelicans are only 16-16 at home – so beatable. Without Kawhi, I don’t want to risk it.
DAL (-5.5) at SAC (5.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 227.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: DAL 118 – SAC 115
Notes: Dallas just beat the Lakers twice but Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic are listed as questionable today. De’Aaron Fox is still out for Sacramento but the Kings kept it close to the Warriors last night.
Colorado Avalanche (-157) at St. Louis Blues (141)
Pick: Bet $20 Colorado
Notes: The Blues took the last game over Colorado on Saturday but I like the Avalanche to bounce back today.
Carolina Hurricanes (-116) at Dallas Stars (105)
Pick: Bet $20 Dallas
Notes: Carolina is a pretty good road team and is the biggest challenge that Dallas has had in a while. But I have Dallas barely winning this game and I have a plus line. So I am going to take a little flyer here on the Stars.
Florida Panthers (-118) at Nashville Predators (107)
Pick: Bet $20 Florida
Notes: Nashville has had some success at home this season but tend to struggle with better teams. Florida has won 4 of 5 games and the lone loss was to a Carolina team that rarely loses at home. But Florida beat them two days later. I like them here today to down the Predators.
Montreal Canadiens (110) at Calgary Flames (-122)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Notes: Montreal has lost two in a row to Calgary and I have the Flames edging them out again tonight. These two teams have played 4 times the past two weeks and Calgary has outscored them by 7 goals. Just seems like they have their number here.
Vancouver Canucks (-122) at Ottawa Senators (110)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Notes: These two teams split a pair last week and start the week off with another matchup. Some value in Ottawa here but I have Vancouver sneaking out the win.
Edmonton Oilers (-107) at Winnipeg Jets (-103)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Notes: The Jets have lost 3 in a row including a shutout to the Oilers a week ago. I should bet them here but I cannot bet the Jets. Or against them.
Anaheim Ducks (143) at Los Angeles Kings (-159)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Notes: The Ducks have lost 4 in a row including a 4-1 loss against LA a week ago. The Kings should win again but too chalky for me.
Arizona Coyotes (-110) at San Jose Sharks (-100)
Pick: Lean San Jose
Notes: San Jose is struggling right now and the Coyotes have found some recent road success. I still have the Sharks barely getting the win today – but this game is unbettable for me.
MIN (-125) at CLE (115)
Pitchers: J. Berrios (ERA: 3.1 – Road ERA: 0.82 – Avg. ML: -125) vs. Z. Plesac (ERA: 6.92 – Home ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: -125)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN
Notes: Berrios has been a bright spot for the Twins. Their run differential over their last 10 days has been dreadful but I am hoping they can turn things around. Plesac has been hittable so I’ll bank on the Twins getting to him today. $20 bet on Minnesota.
NYY (-160) at BAL (147)
Pitchers: D. Garcia (ERA: n/a – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a) vs. M. Harvey (ERA: 5.38 – Home ERA: 5.87 – Avg. ML: 126)
Pick: Bet $20 BAL
Notes: I think I have bet on Matt Harvey more as an Oriole than I did when he was a Met. I think there is value in Baltimore here. $20 bet on the Orioles.
CHC (167) at ATL (-183)
Pitchers: Z. Davies (ERA: 9.38 – Road ERA: 52.5 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. C. Morton (ERA: 3.91 – Home ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: -123)
Pick: Bet $20 ATL
Notes: Morton might be older than the game of baseball itself, but man he’s not showing it. He has been a bit worse at home than on the road this season but it almost doesn’t matter as Davies has been a mess this season. Chalky – especially for a team that has not looked itself this season and against a Cubs team that found some offensive mojo – but I think Chicago is a different team on the road. And the Braves will improve at some point. Hopefully today. $20 bet on Atlanta.
COL (144) at SF (-156)
Pitchers: A. Gomber (ERA: 3.41 – Road ERA: 3.72 – Avg. ML: 174) vs. A. DeSclafani (ERA: 2.14 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -106)
Pick: Bet $20 SF
Notes: The Rockies are not the same team on the road than at home while the Giants are just … good? I like DeSclafani on the bump for them today and while it is chalky, this is the Giants team we have right now. So just go with it. $20 bet on San Francisco.
CIN (154) at LAD (-168)
Pitchers: T. Mahle (ERA: 1.34 – Road ERA: 1 – Avg. ML: -129) vs. J. Urias (ERA: 2.86 – Home ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: -199)
Pick: Bet $20 LAD
Notes: The Dodgers just lost 3 of 4 to the Padres and possibly could have been swept. Now they can flex their muscles against a Reds team that has been a bit of a disappointment this season. Urias has been hit harder at home than on the road and Mahle has been a steady force. But once this gets to the bullpen, the Dodgers should break this open. $20 bet on LA.
KC (-110) at DET (101)
Pitchers: B. Keller (ERA: 13.58 – Road ERA: 11.61 – Avg. ML: 120) vs. S. Turnbull (ERA: 1.8 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: -135)
Pick: Lean DET
Notes: I have been on the wrong side of this series so far so may as well continue that trend.
OAK (-113) at TB (104)
Pitchers: S. Manaea (ERA: 3.1 – Road ERA: 1.5 – Avg. ML: 116) vs. R. Hill (ERA: 8.94 – Home ERA: 7.13 – Avg. ML: -111)
Pick: Lean OAK
Notes: Manaea should give Oakland a chance to keep the Rays off the board and their offense can do the rest against Hill.
MIA (151) at MIL (-165)
Pitchers: T. Rogers (ERA: 1.64 – Road ERA: 1.64 – Avg. ML: 134) vs. C. Burnes (ERA: 0.37 – Home ERA: 0.74 – Avg. ML: -122)
Pick: Lean MIL
Notes: Pretty solid pitching match-up here today. I have Milwaukee winning but it is close and the chalk is higher than my implied probability.
PHI (-110) at STL (102)
Pitchers: Z. Wheeler (ERA: 4 – Road ERA: 5.24 – Avg. ML: -108) vs. A. Wainwright (ERA: 5.16 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 107)
Pick: Lean STL
Notes: Near elite Zach Wheeler has not been so good his last few starts while Wainwright has done fairly well at home this season. This is a close one but I have St. Louis sneaking out the win.
LAA () at TEX ()
Pitchers: S. Ohtani (ERA: 1.1 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -149) vs. J. Lyles (ERA: 4.85 – Home ERA: 6.59 – Avg. ML: 162)
SEA () at HOU ()
Pitchers: J. Sheffield (ERA: 5 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: 136) vs. J. Urquidy (ERA: 5.32 – Home ERA: 6 – Avg. ML: -129)