Degen Show Part (4/28/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/28/21
ATL (8) at PHI (-8)
Pick: Bet PHI ML (-380)
Total: 220 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: ATL 110 – PHI 113
Notes: Trae Young is still out for Atlanta and the Hawks are coming off a road loss to the Pistons on Monday. They scored 86 points in that one and dropped below .500 on the road this season. Philly has been off lately but did smoke OKC on Monday. The Sixers are 23-7 at home and should get the win today. $20 ML bet on Philly -380.
ORL (2.5) at CLE (-2.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 211.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: ORL 108 – CLE 111
Notes: Collin Sexton is still out for Cleveland and the Cavs are now losers of 3 in a row. But Orlando has lost 6 straight and are 8-20 on the road this season. Cleveland should get the win here but I want nothing to do with either team here.
LAL (-3) at WAS (3)
Pick: ML Bet WAS (+125)
Total: 224 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: LAL 111 – WAS 117
Notes: The Lakers continue their road trip – playing their 4th road game in a row. They finally notched a win over Orlando on Monday but now face a Wizards team that has been playing some good basketball lately. They are coming off a 3-point loss to the Spurs on Monday but should be ready to compete with this Lakers team. $20 ML bet on Washington (+125).
CHA (7.5) at BOS (-7.5)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: CHA 105 – BOS 110
Notes: Boston shit the bed yesterday in a loss to OKC which means they should win by 30 today. Because that has been the Celtics’ season so far. Kemba Walker will sit out tonight but Jayson Tatum looks like he could play. I’d lean Charlotte here getting these points but I think Boston bounces back and gets the win.
CHI (5.5) at NYK (-5.5)
Pick: ML Bet NYK (-210)
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: CHI 108 – NYK 113
Notes: This will be the 3rd and last game of the Bulls’ road trip. Zach Lavine should be back after this trip but he won’t be there today. The Bulls did get a win over Miami on Monday. Trust me. I know. And the Knicks lost to Phoenix on Monday. Trust me. I know. But I like the Knicks to get the win today. $20 ML bet on New York (-210).
SAS (5) at MIA (-5)
Pick: ML Bet SAS (+175)
Total: 209 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: SAS 109 – MIA 108
Notes: The Heat split a pair of games with Chicago and now host a Spurs team that has won 4 of 5 and is 18-10 on the road this season. Hard to believe that Miami would lose consecutive games at home but anything is possible in this NBA season. $20 ML bet on San Antonio (+175).
NOP (4) at DEN (-4)
Pick: ML Bet DEN (-170)
Total: 228.5 (Lean Over – 235)
Predicted Score: NOP 116 – DEN 119
Notes: The Pelicans are one of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA. They hammered the Clippers at home on Monday but lost to the Spurs two days prior. New Orleans is 10-18 on the road this year and Denver is 22-10 at home. The Nuggets have been able to win despite losing Barton and Murray. I like them to win today. $20 ML bet on the Nuggets (-170).
POR (2) at MEM (-2)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 235 (Lean Under – 229)
Predicted Score: POR 115 – MEM 114
Notes: Portland showed up yesterday and Memphis should be afraid. If the Blazers play like that tonight, I don’t think they can keep up. Memphis returns home after a long road trip. They beat the Blazers twice in a row during that trip but I like Portland to nab a win today. I just don’t like them on a back-to-back and have very little wiggle room. Leaning Portland.
UTA (-8.5) at SAC (8.5)
Pick: ML Bet SAC (+325)
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: UTA 115 – SAC 111
Notes: Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are both out for Utah. The Kings managed a win over Dallas on Monday. The Jazz have lost 2 in a row and are in danger of losing ground as the top seed in the West if they can’t win some games. I don’t have Sacramento winning – but without Conley and Mitchell maybe they can. $20 ML bet on Sacramento +325.
LAC (3.5) at PHX (-3.5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 222.5 (Lean Under – 218)
Predicted Score: LAC 111 – PHX 107
Notes: Kawhi Leonard is doubtful today and are playing their third straight road game. They were beaten badly by New Orleans on Monday. The Suns return home after an overall successful road trip. Phoenix is 23-9 at home this season. I’m leaning LA here.
St. Louis Blues (134) at Minnesota Wild (-149)
Pick: Bet $20 Minnesota
Notes: Yeah, no shocker here. I love Minnesota at home. St. Louis has played better lately – beating Colorado twice in a row. But the Wild are 17-4 at home and are a great winning streak right now.
Vancouver Canucks (-105) at Ottawa Senators (-105)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Notes: This is the 4th game between the two teams. Ottawa has taken 2 of 4 and you’d be up some cash if you bet them on all 3. I have Vancouver winning here but would not be stunned if Ottawa won. No value on either side here but Ottawa has played decently at home this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-148) at Montreal Canadiens (134)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Notes: Toronto has bounced back after some losses and should get back to winning to close out the regular season. The Canadiens are beatable at home and are not playing very good hockey in general lately.
Edmonton Oilers (-112) at Winnipeg Jets (102)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Notes: The Jets have lost 4 in a row – including 2 to the Oilers. The Monday game was a 6-1 laugher and the first one was a 3-0 shutout. Still, I have the Jets scratching out a win today.
Colorado Avalanche (120) at Vegas Golden Knights (-132)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: The Avalanche lost 2 in a row to the Blues and head to Vegas to play a red hot Knights team. My metrics say take Colorado but almost all of the money is hitting Vegas and that line keeps getting worse. So they might be the play. Laying off this one with a lean on Colorado.
Anaheim Ducks (142) at Los Angeles Kings (-158)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Notes: The Kings handled the Ducks on Monday and should again. But way too chalky for me.
Arizona Coyotes (-106) at San Jose Sharks (-104)
Pick: Lean San Jose
Notes: Maybe eye the over in this one. These two teams got to 10 on Monday and no defense was played at all. I like the Sharks to nab another win today.
KC (-115) at PIT (106)
Pitchers: M. Minor (ERA: 4.85 – Road ERA: 2.93 – Avg. ML: -109) vs. M. Keller (ERA: 7.27 – Home ERA: 8.89 – Avg. ML: 141)
Pick: Bet $20 KC
Notes: I missed on KC yesterday so maybe I am chasing waterfalls.
OAK (151) at TB (-164)
Pitchers: C. Irvin (ERA: 3.99 – Road ERA: 4.41 – Avg. ML: 102) vs. T. Glasnow (ERA: 2.09 – Home ERA: 3.41 – Avg. ML: -147)
Pick: Bet $20 TB
Notes: Glasnow had a rough outing last time. Trust me. I know. But I like him to bounce back today.
CHC (115) at ATL (-125)
Pitchers: K. Hendricks (ERA: 5.68 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -139) vs. H. Ynoa (ERA: 3.86 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -123)
Pick: Bet $20 ATL
Notes: Ynoa has looked good at home this year and Hendricks is best served with some tonic and a slice of cucumber.
SD (-160) at ARI (147)
Pitchers: R. Weathers (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 150) vs. T. Widener (ERA: 2.85 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: 144)
Pick: Bet $20 SD
Notes: I hit on Arizona yesterday and they are playing some good baseball. But I like San Diego to get a win today. Widener has been hit hard at home and the Padres bats should get to him early.
COL (135) at SF (-146)
Pitchers: G. Marquez (ERA: 3.51 – Road ERA: 5.19 – Avg. ML: 118) vs. A. Wood (ERA: 0.75 – Home ERA: 1.29 – Avg. ML: -100)
Pick: Bet $20 SF
Notes: The Giants are one of the best teams in baseball. Prove me wrong.
MIN (-114) at CLE (106)
Pitchers: J. Happ (ERA: 1.76 – Road ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -142) vs. L. Allen (ERA: 7.02 – Home ERA: 5.21 – Avg. ML: -104)
Pick: Lean CLE
MIA () at MIL ()
Pitchers: S. Alcantara (ERA: 3.39 – Road ERA: 4.05 – Avg. ML: 110) vs. Z. Godley (ERA: n/a – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a)
Pick: Lean MIA
CIN (181) at LAD (-200)
Pitchers: S. Gray (ERA: 8.63 – Road ERA: 14.06 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. C. Kershaw (ERA: 2.6 – Home ERA: 2.08 – Avg. ML: -151)
Pick: Lean LAD
BOS (229) at NYM (-255)
Pitchers: N. Pivetta (ERA: 3.56 – Road ERA: 6 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. J. deGrom (ERA: 0.31 – Home ERA: 0.53 – Avg. ML: -189)
Pick: Lean NYM
NYY (-165) at BAL (151)
Pitchers: D. German (ERA: 6.23 – Road ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: -134) vs. D. Kremer (ERA: 7.06 – Home ERA: 12 – Avg. ML: 132)
Pick: Lean NYY
WSH (155) at TOR (-169)
Pitchers: E. Fedde (ERA: 5.84 – Road ERA: 3.91 – Avg. ML: 162) vs. S. Matz (ERA: 2.34 – Home ERA: 1.5 – Avg. ML: -111)
Pick: Lean TOR
PHI (-107) at STL (-101)
Pitchers: V. Velasquez (ERA: 4.5 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 100) vs. J. Oviedo (ERA: n/a – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a)
Pick: Lean PHI
LAA (-128) at TEX (119)
Pitchers: A. Cobb (ERA: 6.72 – Road ERA: 8.51 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. D. Dunning (ERA: 3.14 – Home ERA: 0.82 – Avg. ML: 128)
Pick: Lean TEX
SEA (183) at HOU (-202)
Pitchers: J. Dunn (ERA: 3.8 – Road ERA: 2.7 – Avg. ML: 142) vs. Z. Greinke (ERA: 2.8 – Home ERA: 6.43 – Avg. ML: -135)
Pick: Lean HOU
DET (182) at CWS (-201)
Pitchers: C. Mize (ERA: 5.35 – Road ERA: 3.75 – Avg. ML: 141) vs. C. Rodon (ERA: 0.47 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -114)
Pick: Lean CWS