Degen Show (4/28/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/28/22
PHI (-2) at TOR (2)
Pick: Bet $10 TOR ML
Total: 210.5 (Lean Under – 210)
Predicted Score: PHI 105 – TOR 105
Notes: The narrative in this one is that a team has never been up 3-0 and lost a series in the NBA.
A team has been up 3-1 in a series and given up a series. Just ask Doc Rivers. He’s seen it happen 3 times.
OK, maybe don’t ask Doc since he will get defensive and say the first one was an 8 seed Magic team that gave up the 3-1 lead to the Detroit Pistons.
That Pistons team would end up losing in the Eastern Conference Finals that year and winning the championship the final year.
As for his other two, well once was with the Clippers and Chris Paul was injured. They lost to – wait for it – James Harden and the Rockets.
The last one, he will tell you, wasn’t because Jokic and Jamaal Murray going crazy and the Clippers coughing up big leads in consecutive games.
It was because of the bubble.
So yeah, Doc, thanks for the Celtics championship in 2008. Really appreciate that.
Probably should have been more but I am sure you have some reasons for that as well.
As for this game, it’s hard not to like the Raptors.
They have homecourt today, they have momentum, they have their opponents doubting themselves.
And if rumor has it, James Harden is tanking so Doc gets fired and Daryl Morey can hire Harden fave Mike D’Antoni.
The Raptors will probably be without VanVleet in this one but I’ll still bet them to extend the series to 7.
$10 moneyline bet on Toronto.
PHX (-2.5) at NOP (2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 NOP ML
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: PHX 108 – NOP 112
Notes: The big question mark in this one is if Devin Booker will return to the court tonight.
All signs indicate that he might – based on reports yesterday.
Looking at the official injury report, he is listed as out – but with a long explanation saying he could be back today or if needed Saturday for a game 7.
So we will see.
With the line as it is set, I think the sports books believe he will be out for today.
Without him, Phoenix still managed to get a convincing win over the Pelicans.
But that was at home. I like the Pelicans to hold homecourt today and push Booker to have to play on Saturday.
$10 moneyline bet on New Orleans.
DAL (-1) at UTA (1)
Pick: Bet $10 DAL ML
Total: 209.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: DAL 109 – UTA 104
Notes: The big question in this one surrounds Donovan Mitchell’s availability after getting injured in the last game.
Seems like he’s OK and will play today.
So can the Jazz push this series to 7?
I don’t think so.
If you break apart this series, the Mavs played 3 game without Luka.
They lost game 1 at home by 6.
They won game 2 by 6 at home.
They won game 3 by 8 on the road.
Luka comes back and they lose by 1 on the road on a game winning alleyoop.
They win game 5 in a blowout.
So it definitely looks like Dallas has the edge here.
Utah used to be unbeatable at home. That does not seem to be the case anymore.
I like Dallas to win and cover this one.
$10 moneyline bet on the Mavs.
Washington Capitals (-134) at New York Islanders (112)
Pick: Bet $10 New York Islanders
Notes: The Islanders have had a rough season.
They managed to get to a decent record but lately, they have been struggling.
They have lost 3 straight home games and 4 of their last 5.
They are coming off a 4-1 win over Washington from two days ago.
Can they make it two in a row against the Capitals?
I say yes.
Alex Ovechkin is banged up and while he is traveling with the team on the road trip, I don’t think they can afford him getting any worse.
I also think that with a playoff secured, they won’t risk anyone else getting hurt before trying to make a Stanley Cup run.
Now, they only motivation they do have to win is to avoid Florida in the first round.
They are a point behind Pittsburgh right now.
The Penguins have 1 game left to play while the Capitals have 2. The Capitals last game?
Tomorrow against the Rangers.
So in a back-to-back I really think Washington takes it a bit easy today and if they want to show up for a game, it would be to give the Rangers – a playoff contender – a fight tomorrow as a final tune up.
$10 bet on the Islanders.
New Jersey Devils (270) at Carolina Hurricanes (-345)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Florida Panthers (-260) at Ottawa Senators (210)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: Money is on Ottawa and line getting worse for them. Could be a value play despite the probability saying Florida wins here.
Buffalo Sabres (265) at Boston Bruins (-330)
Pick: Lean Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning (-310) at Columbus Blue Jackets (245)
Pick: Lean Tampa
Calgary Flames (105) at Minnesota Wild (-126)
Pick: Lean Calgary
San Jose Sharks (290) at Edmonton Oilers (-375)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
Nashville Predators (210) at Colorado Avalanche (-260)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Los Angeles Kings (105) at Vancouver Canucks (-126)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
SEA (120) at TB (-142)
Pick: Bet $10 TB
Notes: These teams wrap up their series this afternoon before the Mariners continue their road trip in Miami tomorrow and the Rays host the Twins.
The Mariners have handled Tampa – winning 24 of their last 34 games and 7 of their last 9.
Tampa took game two yesterday and look to close out a series win with Jeffrey Springs on the mound to open.
The lefty is fresh off the Covid list and looks to give them 2-3 innings today.
He’s looked very good as a relief pitcher this season so hopefully he can keep them in this one.
Seattle will counter with Chris Flexen – who historically has struggled against the Rays.
Tampa is definitely dealing with some pitching issues but they are finding ways to win some games lately.
I think they scratch one out today.
$10 bet on the Rays.
HOU (-166) at TEX (140)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: Houston has not been a very good team to start the season but they have found some success in this series against the Rangers.
Now Justin Verlander will take the mound to try and close out the series with their 3rd straight win.
Verlander has looked pretty damn good while returning from injury while his opposing pitcher, Martin Perez, has looked a bit shaky to start his year.
Houston’s offense still has a ways to go but against Texas, it should be able to do enough.
The Rangers grabbed the first game in this series and I don’t think they manage a series split.
$10 bet on Houston.
CLE (138) at LAA (-164)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE
Notes: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
It could also be betting the Guardians in 3 straight games.
Maybe I am chasing waterfalls here, but dammit, its telling me to be Cleveland once again today so that’s what I’m going to do.
Panther chastised me yesterday on this pick because the Guardians’ offense looks like dogshit.
Well, well, well, They scored 5 runs yesterday!
I mean, they gave up 9. But you didn’t say anything about their pitching now did you, Panther?
In theory, they have the pitching edge today with Cal Quantrill on the bump against Reid Detmers.
The Angels rely heavily on the longball – getting another grand slam yesterday.
But to their credit, they scored 5 other runs on some solid hits yesterday.
If they can do that more often, and become more balanced, they will be a damn dangerous offense for sure.
The Guardians cannot keep up offensively so they need to keep this low scoring if possible.
I’ll bank on them getting to Detmers and them throwing every pitcher and piece of junk they have at the Angels to keep the score down.
$10 bet on Cleveland.
MIL (-172) at PIT (144)
Pick: Lean PIT
SD (-104) at CIN (-112)
Pick: Lean CIN
COL (184) at PHI (-220)
Pick: Lean PHI
BAL (190) at NYY (-230)
Pick: Lean NYY
MIA (-158) at WSH (134)
Pick: Lean WSH
DET (126) at MIN (-148)
Pick: Lean DET
KC (154) at CWS (-184)
Pick: Lean CWS
BOS (136) at TOR (-162)
Pick: Lean TOR
CHC (158) at ATL (-188)
Pick: Lean ATL
ARI (152) at STL (-180)
Pick: Lean STL