Degen Show Part (4/6/21)
Powered by RedCircle
Keep the Lights On Around Here!
The Degens! App
Grab the Degens App hangout, shoot the breeze and get even more content.
Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/6/21
I was 0-3 in NBA yesterday. My last 7 days in the NBA have been terrible. 3-11 and down $165. So you want to make money? Fade me.
PHI (-1) at BOS (1)
Pick: Bet $20 BOS
Total: 223 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: PHI 107 – BOS 110
Notes: Joel Embiid is not on the injury report and should play tonight. Which should make it a no-brainer to bet Philly. The Sixers are 14-11 on the road this season – which is markedly better than their terrible road record last season. And while Boston has a winning record at home, they have been beatable. In general, this Boston team has been beatable this season. They have won 2 in a row but neither win was that impressive – mostly because their blowout win over Charlotte was a result of no Gordon Hayward for the Hornets and hitting 21 3’s compared to Charlotte’s 10.
Still, I have Boston winning this game and my NBA betting can’t get any worse. So defying logic and Costanza’ing it could be the play. $20 bet on Boston.
LAL (2.5) at TOR (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $20 TOR
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: LAL 104 – TOR 110
Notes: Toronto snuck out a win over the Wizards yesterday and they had to do it without Lowry and VanVleet. Lowry will remain out but VanVleet’s status is up in the air. Andre Drummond is questionable for the Lakers tonight as they continue their life without LeBron and Anthony Davis too. LA has managed to win some games without them and Toronto is not a nightmare match-up – especially playing in a back-to-back. But the Raptors’ shooting has been on an upward trend while the Lakers continues to be on a downward trend. Toronto should pull out the win and hopefully cover this one for me tonight.
CHI (1.5) at IND (-1.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 224.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: CHI 108 – IND 111
Notes: Jeremy Lamb and Domantas Sabonis are questionable for tonight’s game. I was close to betting Indy here but lord knows the Bulls seem to fuck me whenever I bet on them or against them.
NOP (3.5) at ATL (-3.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: NOP 115 – ATL 116
Notes: Josh Hart is out and Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are questionable for New Orleans tonight. John Collins remains out for Atlanta. Atlanta’s home shooting has not been stellar as of late. They should get the win but too close for my liking.
MEM (4.5) at MIA (-4.5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: MEM 112 – MIA 111
Notes: Miami’s shooting is starting to heat up and they could be ready to make their run. They’ve won 4 in a row and while the competition has been less than stellar, a wins a win. Memphis has gotten some wins lately too – including a 16 point win over the Sixers in Philly on Sunday.
DET (13.5) at DEN (-13.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: DET 107 – DEN 112
Notes: The Pistons hammered OKC last night and now have to play Denver in their back-to-back. Looking at the injury report, I see no one from Denver on it. That’s scary.
POR (6) at LAC (-6)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: POR 111 – LAC 112
Notes: I have this as a close one. Portland’s offense (other than that blip against the Bucks) has looked pretty solid lately.
MIL (-6.5) at GSW (6.5)
Pick: Lean GSW
Total: 233.5 (Lean Under – 228)
Predicted Score: MIL 117 – GSW 111
Notes: Giannis is listed as questionable tonight which means maybe the play is the Warriors and hopes he doesn’t play. I’m desperate but not that desperate. Ok, I was close.
Buffalo Sabres (142) at New Jersey Devils (-158)
Pick: Bet Buffalo
Notes: The Sabres have won 2 of 3 games – beating Philly and the Rangers. The Devils have lost 3 of 4 and are a putrid 4-12-3 at The Rock this season. The implied probability has Buffalo at about 41%. I think it’s there. $20 bet on the Sabres.
Pittsburgh Penguins (113) at New York Rangers (-125)
Pick: Lean Rangers
Notes: The majority of money is coming in on the Penguins and the line is getting better for them. Prior to that loss to the Bruins, the Penguins were the hottest team in the NHL. But they are less than stellar on the road this season and with Shesterkin healthy in goal for the Rangers and a fired up Artemi Panarin leading the offense, I think the Rangers can get the win today. Only a lean though.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-195) at Columbus Blue Jackets (173)
Pick: Lean Tampa
Notes: There was a time when Columbus had Tampa’s number. That time is not now. They take poor shots and at times are very badly coached. Tortorella does some baffling things with his lines – trying to provide a spark – but usually ending in a fizzle. Tampa’s metrics are starting to improve – which is good for them as they head to the playoffs.
Boston Bruins (-130) at Philadelphia Flyers (110)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Notes: I leaned Philly yesterday and was on the right side of that pick. I’m leaning them again but I’m less confident. The Flyers are just a decent home team this season while Boston has played somewhat better on the road. Other than that bomb against the Sabres last week, Philly’s defense has played better lately and their offense can get off enough good shots to keep Boston on their toes.
Washington Capitals (113) at New York Islanders (-124)
Pick: Lean Washington
Notes: The Islanders just bested Washington 5 days ago. The Capitals have played/won 2 games since then and the Islanders have only played 1. So New York should be a little fresher. This is a close one to me. I’ll lean with the plus line.
Florida Panthers (129) at Carolina Hurricanes (-143)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: Carolina is 12-2-3 at home this season. One of their lone losses came on Saturday against the Stars. Tough to imagine them losing another so close together but Florida could do it. Lean on the Panthers.
Nashville Predators (-154) at Detroit Red Wings (139)
Pick: Bet Detroit
Notes: Nashville is starting to heat up a bit but other than some recent road wins over Chicago, this is a team to worry about on the road. On the other side, Detroit has a winning home record and is coming off that big win over Tampa on Sunday. I like the plus line for Detroit here – though I am a little worried that the money is on them and line has gotten better.
Dallas Stars (-116) at Chicago Blackhawks (106)
Pick: Bet Dallas
Notes: The Blackhawks are continuing their downward spiral while Dallas is steadily improving to possibly make some noise down the stretch. Chicago has a winning home record – but they are riding some early season success there as recency has not been too friendly to them in Chicago. Dallas should get the road win today.
Anaheim Ducks (155) at San Jose Sharks (-173)
Pick: Lean San Jose
Notes: The Sharks are pretty hot right now and should nab another win today. Way too chalky for my liking, though.
STL (117) at MIA (-127)
Pitchers: J. Gant vs. S. Alcantara
Pick: Bet MIA
Notes: I hate eating any chalk for Miami but I have them winning this game enough to meet the implied probability. Alcantara looked stellar in his first outing and John Gant has some experience as a starter but was more of a reliever last season. $20 bet on the Marlins.
TB (-147) at BOS (136)
Pitchers: T. Glasnow vs. M. Perez
Pick: Bet TB
Notes: I hit the Red Sox yesterday but I am fading them today. I like Glasnow on the mound for Tampa and Martin Perez gives Tampa an opportunity to put up some runs today. $20 bet on the Rays.
SF (171) at SD (-188)
Pitchers: A. Sanchez vs. Y. Darvish
Pick: Bet SF
Notes: I have had mixed results betting against Yu Darvish but the Padres aren’t clicking right now. Tatis got injured yesterday and that will be a huge blow to this team. I like the value of the Giants. $20 bet on San Francisco.
MIN (-138) at DET (127)
Pitchers: J. Happ vs. C. Mize
Pick: Lean MIN
Notes: Looking a little trappish here.
HOU (-109) at LAA (101)
Pitchers: Z. Grienke vs. G. Canning
Pick: Lean HOU
Notes: Grienke looked solid in his first outing. Let’s see if he can sustain his ace status in Houston.
BAL (241) at NYY (-270)
Pitchers: D. Kremer vs. G. Cole
Pick: Lean NYY
Notes: Cole is getting a big line though it could be the competition too. Baltimore has not looked terrible though and maybe some value there – but I have the Yankees winning here.
PIT (140) at CIN (-152)
Pitchers: T. Cahill vs. W. Miley
Pick: Lean CIN
Notes: The Pirates are hanging in games and Wade Miley can be a hit or miss starter. Still, the Reds should pull out the win.
NYM (-131) at PHI (121)
Pitchers: M. Stroman vs. C. Anderson
Pick: Lean NYM
Notes: Looks a bit trappish. The Mets’ bullpen came out in true fashion last night and will be a factor every night.
MIL (-103) at CHC (-105)
Pitchers: F. Peralta vs. A. Alzolay
Pick: Lean CHC
Notes: Another too close to call game for me. Leaning the home team.
TOR (-131) at TEX (121)
Pitchers: T. Roark vs. D. Dunning
Pick: Lean TOR
Notes: Money is coming in on Texas here and line has gotten better. Not in love with this game but Roark can step up at times. Lean on Toronto.
ARI (105) at COL (-114)
Pitchers: L. Weaver vs. G. Marquez
Pick: Lean COL
Notes: Overwhelming money is on Colorado here and the line has gotten better. Rockies will be happy not to play the Dodgers, though.
LAD (-163) at OAK (149)
Pitchers: C. Kershaw vs. C. Bassitt
Pick: Lean LAD
Notes: Another trappish one. I also don’t trust Kershaw out there yet.
CWS (-135) at SEA (124)
Pitchers: L. Giolito vs. J. Paxton
Pick: Lean CWS
Notes: Yet another trappish one. Chicago got a much needed win yesterday and Seattle has been hit or miss so far this season.