Degen Show Part (4/6/21)

Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 4/6/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA win totals episode, their MLB futures episode and Max’s NHL Power rankings post.

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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/6/21

 

NBA

I was 0-3 in NBA yesterday. My last 7 days in the NBA have been terrible. 3-11 and down $165. So you want to make money? Fade me.

 

 

PHI (-1) at BOS (1)

Pick: Bet $20 BOS

Total: 223 (Lean Under – 217)

Predicted Score: PHI 107 – BOS 110

Notes: Joel Embiid is not on the injury report and should play tonight. Which should make it a no-brainer to bet Philly. The Sixers are 14-11 on the road this season – which is markedly better than their terrible road record last season. And while Boston has a winning record at home, they have been beatable. In general, this Boston team has been beatable this season. They have won 2 in a row but neither win was that impressive – mostly because their blowout win over Charlotte was a result of no Gordon Hayward for the Hornets and hitting 21 3’s compared to Charlotte’s 10.

Still, I have Boston winning this game and my NBA betting can’t get any worse. So defying logic and Costanza’ing it could be the play. $20 bet on Boston.

 

LAL (2.5) at TOR (-2.5)

Pick: Bet $20 TOR

Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 214)

Predicted Score: LAL 104 – TOR 110

Notes: Toronto snuck out a win over the Wizards yesterday and they had to do it without Lowry and VanVleet. Lowry will remain out but VanVleet’s status is up in the air. Andre Drummond is questionable for the Lakers tonight as they continue their life without LeBron and Anthony Davis too. LA has managed to win some games without them and Toronto is not a nightmare match-up – especially playing in a back-to-back. But the Raptors’ shooting has been on an upward trend while the Lakers continues to be on a downward trend. Toronto should pull out the win and hopefully cover this one for me tonight.

 

CHI (1.5) at IND (-1.5)

Pick: Lean IND

Total: 224.5 (Lean Under – 219)

Predicted Score: CHI 108 – IND 111

Notes: Jeremy Lamb and Domantas Sabonis are questionable for tonight’s game. I was close to betting Indy here but lord knows the Bulls seem to fuck me whenever I bet on them or against them.

 

NOP (3.5) at ATL (-3.5)

Pick: Lean NOP

Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 231)

Predicted Score: NOP 115 – ATL 116

Notes: Josh Hart is out and Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are questionable for New Orleans tonight. John Collins remains out for Atlanta. Atlanta’s home shooting has not been stellar as of late. They should get the win but too close for my liking.

 

MEM (4.5) at MIA (-4.5)

Pick: Lean MEM

Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 223)

Predicted Score: MEM 112 – MIA 111

Notes: Miami’s shooting is starting to heat up and they could be ready to make their run. They’ve won 4 in a row and while the competition has been less than stellar, a wins a win. Memphis has gotten some wins lately too – including a 16 point win over the Sixers in Philly on Sunday.

 

DET (13.5) at DEN (-13.5)

Pick: Lean DET

Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 219)

Predicted Score: DET 107 – DEN 112

Notes: The Pistons hammered OKC last night and now have to play Denver in their back-to-back. Looking at the injury report, I see no one from Denver on it. That’s scary.

 

POR (6) at LAC (-6)

Pick: Lean POR

Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 223)

Predicted Score: POR 111 – LAC 112

Notes: I have this as a close one. Portland’s offense (other than that blip against the Bucks) has looked pretty solid lately.

 

MIL (-6.5) at GSW (6.5)

Pick: Lean GSW

Total: 233.5 (Lean Under – 228)

Predicted Score: MIL 117 – GSW 111

Notes: Giannis is listed as questionable tonight which means maybe the play is the Warriors and hopes he doesn’t play. I’m desperate but not that desperate. Ok, I was close.

 

NHL

 

 

Buffalo Sabres (142) at New Jersey Devils (-158)

Pick: Bet Buffalo

Notes: The Sabres have won 2 of 3 games – beating Philly and the Rangers. The Devils have lost 3 of 4 and are a putrid 4-12-3 at The Rock this season. The implied probability has Buffalo at about 41%. I think it’s there. $20 bet on the Sabres.

 

Pittsburgh Penguins (113) at New York Rangers (-125)

Pick: Lean Rangers

Notes: The majority of money is coming in on the Penguins and the line is getting better for them. Prior to that loss to the Bruins, the Penguins were the hottest team in the NHL. But they are less than stellar on the road this season and with Shesterkin healthy in goal for the Rangers and a fired up Artemi Panarin leading the offense, I think the Rangers can get the win today. Only a lean though.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning (-195) at Columbus Blue Jackets (173)

Pick: Lean Tampa

Notes: There was a time when Columbus had Tampa’s number. That time is not now. They take poor shots and at times are very badly coached. Tortorella does some baffling things with his lines – trying to provide a spark – but usually ending in a fizzle. Tampa’s metrics are starting to improve – which is good for them as they head to the playoffs.

 

Boston Bruins (-130) at Philadelphia Flyers (110)

Pick: Lean Philadelphia

Notes: I leaned Philly yesterday and was on the right side of that pick. I’m leaning them again but I’m less confident. The Flyers are just a decent home team this season while Boston has played somewhat better on the road. Other than that bomb against the Sabres last week, Philly’s defense has played better lately and their offense can get off enough good shots to keep Boston on their toes.

 

Washington Capitals (113) at New York Islanders (-124)

Pick: Lean Washington

Notes: The Islanders just bested Washington 5 days ago. The Capitals have played/won 2 games since then and the Islanders have only played 1. So New York should be a little fresher. This is a close one to me. I’ll lean with the plus line.

 

Florida Panthers (129) at Carolina Hurricanes (-143)

Pick: Lean Florida

Notes: Carolina is 12-2-3 at home this season. One of their lone losses came on Saturday against the Stars. Tough to imagine them losing another so close together but Florida could do it. Lean on the Panthers.

 

Nashville Predators (-154) at Detroit Red Wings (139)

Pick: Bet Detroit

Notes: Nashville is starting to heat up a bit but other than some recent road wins over Chicago, this is a team to worry about on the road. On the other side, Detroit has a winning home record and is coming off that big win over Tampa on Sunday. I like the plus line for Detroit here – though I am a little worried that the money is on them and line has gotten better.

 

Dallas Stars (-116) at Chicago Blackhawks (106)

Pick: Bet Dallas

Notes: The Blackhawks are continuing their downward spiral while Dallas is steadily improving to possibly make some noise down the stretch. Chicago has a winning home record – but they are riding some early season success there as recency has not been too friendly to them in Chicago. Dallas should get the road win today.

 

Anaheim Ducks (155) at San Jose Sharks (-173)

Pick: Lean San Jose

Notes: The Sharks are pretty hot right now and should nab another win today. Way too chalky for my liking, though.

 

MLB

 

 

STL (117) at MIA (-127)

Pitchers: J. Gant vs. S. Alcantara

Pick: Bet MIA

Notes: I hate eating any chalk for Miami but I have them winning this game enough to meet the implied probability. Alcantara looked stellar in his first outing and John Gant has some experience as a starter but was more of a reliever last season. $20 bet on the Marlins.

 

TB (-147) at BOS (136)

Pitchers: T. Glasnow vs. M. Perez

Pick: Bet TB

Notes: I hit the Red Sox yesterday but I am fading them today. I like Glasnow on the mound for Tampa and Martin Perez gives Tampa an opportunity to put up some runs today. $20 bet on the Rays.

 

SF (171) at SD (-188)

Pitchers: A. Sanchez vs. Y. Darvish

Pick: Bet SF

Notes: I have had mixed results betting against Yu Darvish but the Padres aren’t clicking right now. Tatis got injured yesterday and that will be a huge blow to this team. I like the value of the Giants. $20 bet on San Francisco.

 

MIN (-138) at DET (127)

Pitchers: J. Happ vs. C. Mize

Pick: Lean MIN

Notes: Looking a little trappish here.

 

HOU (-109) at LAA (101)

Pitchers: Z. Grienke vs. G. Canning

Pick: Lean HOU

Notes: Grienke looked solid in his first outing. Let’s see if he can sustain his ace status in Houston.

 

BAL (241) at NYY (-270)

Pitchers: D. Kremer vs. G. Cole

Pick: Lean NYY

Notes: Cole is getting a big line though it could be the competition too. Baltimore has not looked terrible though and maybe some value there – but I have the Yankees winning here.

 

PIT (140) at CIN (-152)

Pitchers: T. Cahill vs. W. Miley

Pick: Lean CIN

Notes: The Pirates are hanging in games and Wade Miley can be a hit or miss starter. Still, the Reds should pull out the win.

 

NYM (-131) at PHI (121)

Pitchers: M. Stroman vs. C. Anderson

Pick: Lean NYM

Notes: Looks a bit trappish. The Mets’ bullpen came out in true fashion last night and will be a factor every night.

 

MIL (-103) at CHC (-105)

Pitchers: F. Peralta vs. A. Alzolay

Pick: Lean CHC

Notes: Another too close to call game for me. Leaning the home team.

 

TOR (-131) at TEX (121)

Pitchers: T. Roark vs. D. Dunning

Pick: Lean TOR

Notes: Money is coming in on Texas here and line has gotten better. Not in love with this game but Roark can step up at times. Lean on Toronto.

 

ARI (105) at COL (-114)

Pitchers: L. Weaver vs. G. Marquez

Pick: Lean COL

Notes: Overwhelming money is on Colorado here and the line has gotten better. Rockies will be happy not to play the Dodgers, though.

 

LAD (-163) at OAK (149)

Pitchers: C. Kershaw vs. C. Bassitt

Pick: Lean LAD

Notes: Another trappish one. I also don’t trust Kershaw out there yet.

 

CWS (-135) at SEA (124)

Pitchers: L. Giolito vs. J. Paxton

Pick: Lean CWS

Notes: Yet another trappish one. Chicago got a much needed win yesterday and Seattle has been hit or miss so far this season.