Degen Show (4/9/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/9/22
MIL (-156) at CHC (132)
Pick: Bet $10 MIL
Notes: I was on the wrong side of this series in game 1 and now for some gambler’s fallacy: the Cubs can’t beat the Brewers two games in a row.
Brandon Woodruff takes the mound for Milwaukee. He had a pretty solid season last year but run support was not on his side most games.
Justin Steele will be the #2 guy in the rotation for the Cubs right now. He pitched mostly in relief in his 69 – nice – innings last season. He posted decent enough numbers but the hope is that with his higher velocity, he could be a gem in the rotation.
They must think he’s got potential if they have him ahead of Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly and Alec Mills.
I think it’s a risk and that the Milwaukee bats will get to him early.
$10 bet on the Brewers.
OAK (172) at PHI (-205)
Pick: Bet $10 OAK
Notes: Philly’s offense lived up to the hype in game 1 of the season – putting up 9 runs yesterday.
They will get a chance to tee off again with Cole Irvin on the mound for the A’s.
Irvin should be familiar with the Phillies as he pitched there in his first 2 seasons before moving on to Oakland last year. In a full season of work, Irvin posted decent numbers.
But not the kind you need from a #2 starter.
Kyle Gibson gets the start for Philly today. Last season he posted near Cy Young numbers in Texas before falling off the face of the Earth after being dealt to Philly.
Which Gibson shows up today? Based on preseason looks like the second half Gibson could be the norm.
Oakland had a firesale this offseason so hard to imagine they can keep up with Philly today.
Yet that big fat plus line is too tempting.
$10 bet on the A’s.
BOS (150) at NYY (-178)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS
Notes: The rivalry kicked off yesterday with the Bombers winning with a walk-off in the 11th.
Nick Pivetta will face off against Luis Severino.
Pivetta moves into the #2 role as Chris Sale deals with his rib injury. Pivetta had some big moments for the Red Sox last season and looks to be an important member of this rotation.
Severino had an injury scare but seems to be OK to start.
I was pretty surprised by this line, to be honest. The opening was even crazier.
But it seems like Vegas is adjusting here.
Still, I am going to jump on the Red Sox here with this plus line.
$10 bet on Boston.
CWS (-154) at DET (130)
Pick: Lean CWS
BAL (200) at TB (-245)
Pick: Lean TB
SEA (122) at MIN (-144)
Pick: Lean SEA
PIT (152) at STL (-180)
Pick: Lean PIT
TEX (168) at TOR (-200)
Pick: Lean TOR
MIA (128) at SF (-152)
Pick: Lean SF
CLE (104) at KC (-122)
Pick: Lean CLE
NYM (-164) at WSH (138)
Pick: Lean NYM
CIN (144) at ATL (-172)
Pick: Lean ATL
SD (-172) at ARI (144)
Pick: Lean ARI
LAD (-158) at COL (134)
Pick: Lean COL
HOU (-126) at LAA (108)
Pick: Lean LAA
GSW (-7) at SAS (7)
Pick: Bet $10 SAS ML
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: GSW 108 – SAS 115
Notes: Pretty unbettable day in the NBA but I am going to take the Spurs with this big plus moneyline.
I know they will still be without Dejounte Murray but the Warriors will be without Step and probably Klay too.
The Warriors have won 3 in a row and I guess there is motivation to win and keep the 3 spot. But I’d argue that I’d rather get the 4 seed and host the Jazz than risk hosting the MVP and the Nuggets.
The Spurs are only 16-24 at home this season and I typically have had better success betting them on the road.
But still, I think there’s a chance they can sneak out a win here.
$10 bet on the Spurs.
IND (14.5) at PHI (-14.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 235 (Lean Over – 239)
Predicted Score: IND 113 – PHI 126
NOP (6) at MEM (-6)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 232.5 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: NOP 111 – MEM 115
SAC (11.5) at LAC (-11.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: SAC 113 – LAC 117
New Jersey Devils (210) at Dallas Stars (-260)
Pick: Bet $10 New Jersey
Notes: The Devils have lost 5 in a row and got humiliated on Thursday against a shitty Canadiens team.
So heading into Dallas against a Stars team that is 22-9-2 at home this season is not a winnable situation.
Yet I have them keeping this close. So maybe I should chickenshit them and take 1.5 but fuck it.
I’ll straight up take the Devils for the big plus line win.
$10 bet on New Jersey.
Washington Capitals (126) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-152)
Pick: Bet $10 Pittsburgh
Notes: The Penguins have lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. Those 4 losses were a pair of losses to the Rangers and the Avalanche.
So I really can’t fault them too much.
Still, these are playoff caliber teams and struggling against them is not a good omen heading into the playoffs.
Washington managed to get a win over the Lightning a few days ago to salvage a homestand. It’s a team that has been inconsistent the past few weeks.
The main issue has been their defense – which has allowed 4.16 goals per game over their last 6 games.
Samsanov is slated to be in goal today and he can be scored on.
Sid the not so kid anymore will be back the Penguins today to try and help them put some goals up.
I like Pittsburgh to get the win.
$10 bet on the Penguins.
Florida Panthers (-132) at Nashville Predators (110)
Pick: Lean Florida
Ottawa Senators (225) at New York Rangers (-280)
Pick: Lean New York
Montreal Canadiens (330) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-430)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Calgary Flames (-245) at Seattle Kraken (198)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets (-104) at Detroit Red Wings (-115)
Pick: Lean Columbus
Anaheim Ducks (-105) at Philadelphia Flyers (-114)
Pick: Lean Anaheim
New York Islanders (130) at St. Louis Blues (-156)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
San Jose Sharks (136) at Vancouver Canucks (-164)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche (-137) at Edmonton Oilers (114)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes (340) at Vegas Golden Knights (-450)
Pick: Lean Vegas