Degen Show Part (5/1/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/1/21
DET (7.5) at CHA (-7.5)
Pick: Bet $20 CHA ML (-280)
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: DET 106 – CHA 111
Notes: The Hornets have lost 2 in a row but they have been fairly solid at home this year. Detroit did get that win over a depleted Atlanta team the other night but then got back to their losing ways on Thursday. Charlotte should get the win today. $20 ML bet on the Hornets.
NOP (-3.5) at MIN (3.5)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN ML (+135)
Total: 235.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: NOP 114 – MIN 113
Notes: The Pelicans have won 3 of 5 games and their wins have been pretty one-sided. But they are still just an 11-19 road team that has defensive lapses and times where their offense looks like shit. The T-Wolves have won 4 in a row and are playing some damn good ball right now. I have New Orleans winning by a point here but still enough value to bet Minnesota on the moneyline. $20 bet on the T-Wolves.
CHI (5.5) at ATL (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ATL ML (-220)
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 215)
Predicted Score: CHI 106 – ATL 109
Notes: Fuck the Bulls. Seriously. I know Atlanta got stomped yesterday but with Trae Young back, they should start being more competitive. The Bulls suck. I hate them. And I’m betting against them. Which means they probably win. $20 ML bet on the Hawks.
IND (-6.5) at OKC (6.5)
Pick: Bet $20 IND ML (-280)
Total: 226.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: IND 119 – OKC 112
Notes: Indiana is still dealing with some injuries and have lost 2 in a row in convincing fashion – but it’s OKC. Who can they beat? Seriously. The Thunder can’t beat anyone. They haven’t won since … beating the Celtics on Tuesday. But they went back to losing on Thursday and will continue losing today. $20 ML bet on the Pacers.
WAS (5.5) at DAL (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $20 WAS ML (205)
Total: 231.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: WAS 117 – DAL 110
Notes: Washington won once again last night. Which does bring up questions over rest for Russ or not. I don’t think so. This team is rolling and dangerous. I’m not sure if they want to mess with that flow. Dallas has won 4 of 5 games but Porzingis is banged up and they are primed for an upset. $20 ML bet on the Wizards.
MEM (-10.5) at ORL (10.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 223.5 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: MEM 118 – ORL 112
Notes: Orlando was beating Memphis in yesterday’s game. They subsequently ended up scoring 75 points in a blowout loss. More of the same today I predict.
GSW (-7.5) at HOU (7.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 233.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: GSW 115 – HOU 112
Notes: The Warriors have lost 2 in a row and have not been a great road team this season. The Rockets stole one from the Bucks but not sure they can win 2 in a row. Also not sure if management wants them to.
MIA (-10.5) at CLE (10.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 213)
Predicted Score: MIA 109 – CLE 104
Notes: Miami should win this one. Even with their not so great play on the road.
DEN (4.5) at LAC (-4.5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 222)
Predicted Score: DEN 108 – LAC 114
Notes: Really good matchup here. The Nuggets have won 4 in a row and the Clippers have lost 2 in a row. But LA heads back home where they are 24-8. Can they win a home game without Kawhi? Maybe.
TOR (7.5) at UTA (-7.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 222.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: TOR 106 – UTA 110
Notes: Utah could not pull out the win over Phoenix yesterday and now they sit in second place in the West. They should be able to grab a win over the Raptors today.
Florida Panthers (-143) at Chicago Blackhawks (129)
Pick: Bet Florida
Notes: Florida beat Chicago on Thursday and they should get it done again today. The Blackhawks have lost 4 of 5 games and have a -8 goal differential over that span. Both teams have low PDOs – meaning luck factor is impacting them. Florida is winning despite that. $20 bet on the Panthers.
Calgary Flames (108) at Edmonton Oilers (-119)
Pick: Bet Calgary
Notes: Calgary got the better of the Oilers on Thursday and I like them here today. They have played some pretty good hockey lately. Edmonton has too – so this won’t be a massacre by any sorts – but I have the Flames stealing a win here and getting a plus line.
Buffalo Sabres (292) at Boston Bruins (-345)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
Notes: Yeah, the Bruins just beat Buffalo 5-2 on Thursday. But the Sabres did steal a win over Boston a week ago. There is some value here for sure.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-328) at Detroit Red Wings (279)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Notes: Ugh, yeah, I know. There is value in Detroit here. I hate Tampa. Blah, blah, blah.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-105) at Washington Capitals (-115)
Pick: Lean Washington
Notes: The money is hitting the Penguins here but not sure they can beat Washington in consecutive games.
New Jersey Devils (122) at Philadelphia Flyers (-135)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Notes: The Devils have beat the Flyers twice in a row. Can they go for 3? I don’t think so.
New York Rangers (118) at New York Islanders (-130)
Pick: Lean New York Rangers
Notes: New York got the better of New York on Thursday. Can New York do it again? Or will New York get it done today? I’m leaning New York here.
Columbus Blue Jackets (260) at Carolina Hurricanes (-303)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Notes: Columbus should be well rested but being rested won’t help the while facing Carolina at home. Should be an easy win for the Hurricanes.
Ottawa Senators (180) at Montreal Canadiens (-220)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Notes: Ottawa has won 4 of 5. Can they beat Montreal at home? I don’t have it but there is value there. The Canadiens won yesterday but could be in for a shock today
Vancouver Canucks (248) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-287)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Notes: The Canucks have lost 3 in a row including a 4-1 beatdown by Toronto on Thursday. The Maple Leafs have won 4 in a row with a +11 goal differential in that span.
San Jose Sharks (235) at Colorado Avalanche (-290)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: Colorado finally got back to winning yesterday over the Sharks and should double up today. But way too chalky for my liking.
Dallas Stars (-104) at Nashville Predators (-106)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Notes: The money is coming in on Nashville and Dallas has lost two in a row – dropping their road record to 8-10-4. Predators are a pretty good home team too.
St. Louis Blues (120) at Minnesota Wild (-139)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: Goddamn. I keep fading the Blues and it has not worked in my favor. Minnesota can’t lose again, right?
Los Angeles Kings (-130) at Anaheim Ducks (110)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Notes: The Kings beat the Ducks once again. Value could be on Anaheim today but I still have LA winning.
Vegas Golden Knights (-195) at Arizona Coyotes (165)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: The Coyotes stunned Vegas last night. Don’t think it happens again.
KC (114) at MIN (-123)
Pitchers: D. Duffy (ERA: 0.39 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. M. Shoemaker (ERA: 5.63 – Home ERA: 5.35 – Avg. ML: -142)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN
CHC (144) at CIN (-157)
Pitchers: Z. Davies (ERA: 10.23 – Road ERA: 24.55 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. L. Castillo (ERA: 6.35 – Home ERA: 5.74 – Avg. ML: -117)
Pick: Bet $20 CIN
COL (165) at ARI (-181)
Pitchers: A. Gomber (ERA: 6.86 – Road ERA: 9.47 – Avg. ML: 167) vs. Z. Gallen (ERA: 2.22 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: 113)
Pick: Bet $20 ARI
MIA () at WSH ()
Pitchers: P. Campbell (ERA: n/a – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a) vs. P. Corbin (ERA: 10.62 – Home ERA: 10.13 – Avg. ML: 105)
DET (201) at NYY (-222)
Pitchers: S. Turnbull (ERA: 3.27 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -114) vs. J. Taillon (ERA: 7.38 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: -115)
Pick: Lean NYY
CLE (162) at CWS (-177)
Pitchers: T. McKenzie (ERA: 4.85 – Road ERA: 4 – Avg. ML: 120) vs. L. Lynn (ERA: 0.94 – Home ERA: 1.2 – Avg. ML: -134)
Pick: Lean CWS
BAL (172) at OAK (-189)
Pitchers: M. Harvey (ERA: 4.43 – Road ERA: 4.89 – Avg. ML: 130) vs. J. Luzardo (ERA: 5.72 – Home ERA: 4.14 – Avg. ML: -105)
Pick: Lean OAK
HOU () at TB ()
Pitchers: J. Urquidy (ERA: 4.79 – Road ERA: 5.03 – Avg. ML: -133) vs. J. Fleming (ERA: 0.89 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: -121)
NYM (109) at PHI (-118)
Pitchers: T. Walker (ERA: 2.22 – Road ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: -138) vs. Z. Wheeler (ERA: 3.25 – Home ERA: 2.95 – Avg. ML: -110)
Pick: Lean PHI
STL (-138) at PIT (127)
Pitchers: J. Flaherty (ERA: 3.2 – Road ERA: 4.47 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. T. Cahill (ERA: 7.11 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: 175)
Pick: Lean PIT
BOS (-184) at TEX (168)
Pitchers: E. Rodriquez (ERA: 3.38 – Road ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. J. Lyles (ERA: 7.17 – Home ERA: 14.29 – Avg. ML: 160)
Pick: Lean BOS
LAD (-126) at MIL (116)
Pitchers: D. May (ERA: 2.56 – Road ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: -170) vs. B. Woodruff (ERA: 1.55 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: -103)
Pick: Lean LAD
ATL () at TOR ()
Pitchers: C. Morton (ERA: 4.8 – Road ERA: 3.27 – Avg. ML: -125) vs. T. Bergen (ERA: n/a – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a)
SF (155) at SD (-169)
Pitchers: A. DeSclafani (ERA: 1.5 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. B. Snell (ERA: 4.15 – Home ERA: 2.54 – Avg. ML: -124)
Pick: Lean SD
LAA (-138) at SEA (127)
Pitchers: G. Canning (ERA: 8.85 – Road ERA: 8.85 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. L. Newsome (ERA: n/a – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a)
Pick: Lean SEA