Degen Show Part (5/11/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/11/21
MIN (-6.5) at DET (6.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML MIN (-290)
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: MIN 115 – DET 109
Notes: The Pistons have lost 4 of 5 and their last two losses haven’t even been close. Minnesota has played some good ball lately and it finally led to a win on Sunday. The T-Wolves are only 9-26 on the road but are 4-2 over their last 6 road games. I like them to pull out a W today.
DAL (-1.5) at MEM (1.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML DAL (-130)
Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 222)
Predicted Score: DAL 116 – MEM 106
Notes: Kristaps Porzingis is out for Dallas today but Dallas has won 4 in a row and is 21-13 on the road. Memphis has won 2 in a row after last night’s win over the Pelicans. But I still don’t like how Memphis is playing and as long as Luka doesn’t get ejected, Dallas should win.
PHI (-6.5) at IND (6.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML PHI (-280)
Total: 236.5 (Lean Under – 233)
Predicted Score: PHI 121 – IND 112
Notes: The Pacers are coming off a win over the Cavs yesterday but are only 12-21 at home this season. Philly has won 8 in a row and are a respectable 20-14 on the road this season. The Sixers want that home court and Doc does not want them taking the foot off the pedal.
NYK (4.5) at LAL (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML NYK (+167)
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: NYK 109 – LAL 107
Notes: LeBron could make his return today but his status is still doubtful. The Lakers are coming off a big win over Phoenix on Sunday. The Knicks are on game 4 of their road trip. It’s their last road game before heading home to wrap up the season. Their last road game was a win over the Clippers and a win today would mean a successful road trip for sure.
DEN (-5.5) at CHA (5.5)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: DEN 111 – CHA 109
Notes: The Nuggets have lost 2 in a row but look to get back to winning against a Charlotte team that has not been able to beat many above .500 teams. Aaron Gordon is a bit banged up for Denver but should play Tuesday.
MIA (-1.5) at BOS (1.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 242)
Predicted Score: MIA 123 – BOS 119
Notes: Boston found out that Jaylen Brown is out for the season as they have settled into a play-in spot for the playoffs. Miami is a team that stands in front of them of avoiding that but the Heat just handled Boston on Sunday night. Miami has won 4 of 5 and are starting to gel as they head to the playoffs. Boston is a mess right now.
LAC (-12.5) at TOR (12.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 218)
Predicted Score: LAC 110 – TOR 108
Notes: Kawhi gets to play his former team and hopes to help the Clippers bounce back from a loss to the Knicks on Sunday. Toronto has lost 3 in a row including a 5-point loss to the Clippers a week ago. Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are all out today.
BKN (-5.5) at CHI (5.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 233.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: BKN 111 – CHI 110
Notes: The Nets are playing in their 5th straight road game. Their last one was a win over the Nuggets that broke a 4-game losing streak. The Bulls have won 3 in a row because, well, fuck the Bulls. Lavine is back and now this team looks OK. James Harden could be back tomorrow.
ORL (13.5) at MIL (-13.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 229.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: ORL 114 – MIL 119
Notes: The Bucks shit the bed against the Spurs last night. Can they do it again against a lowly fucking Orlando team?
PHX (-4.5) at GSW (4.5)
Pick: Lean GSW
Total: 231.5 (Lean Over – 232)
Predicted Score: PHX 114 – GSW 118
Notes: The Warriors played a tight one with Utah last night – winning by 3 in a great effort by Curry. Golden State has won 4 of 5 games. The Suns are coming off a loss to the Lakers on Sunday and they have lost consecutive road games – but are still a very good 22-11 on the road this season.
OKC (11.5) at SAC (-11.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: OKC 109 – SAC 117
Notes: De’Aaron Fox is still out for SAC but Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield are also doubtful for today.
Boston Bruins (-110) at Washington Capitals (-110)
Pick: Lean Washington
Notes: I can’t pick a side in this one as it’s literally a 50/50 for me. I hit on Boston yesterday and both teams are fairly even with their home/away splits.
Vancouver Canucks (145) at Winnipeg Jets (-165)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Notes: I still favor Vancouver here and after the 3-1 beating of the Jets yesterday, I was tempted to jump on them today. Winnipeg is 11-13-2 at home and have lost 4 of games. I just think the extra games for the Canucks will tire them out and they have one more game this past week than Winnipeg did.
TEX (143) at SF (-155)
Pitchers: J. Lyles (ERA: 7.41 – Road ERA: 4.65 – Avg. ML: 161) vs. L. Webb (ERA: 5.64 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Bet $20 SF
Notes: Texas has not played terribly lately and only managed to lose 3-1 to the Giants yesterday. I hit on that game and I’m back on the Giants today – but the line is close to pricing me out. Logan Webb has not been dominant this season but his home ERA is much better than his overall ERA and Jordan Lyles can be hit hard. I’ll bet on the Giants to get it done again today.
CIN (106) at PIT (-115)
Pitchers: J. Hoffman (ERA: 4.47 – Road ERA: 6.67 – Avg. ML: 120) vs. J. Brubaker (ERA: 2.8 – Home ERA: 3.56 – Avg. ML: 129)
Pick: Bet $20 PIT
Notes: I bet on the Reds yesterday and time for me to flipflop. Hard to bet on the Pirates as a favorite but Hoffman has not been very good on the road and Brubaker has been a surprise for Pittsburgh this season. The Reds just are not a team that can be trusted and them at a plus line against the Pirates is indicative of how their season is going so far.
PHI (118) at WSH (-128)
Pitchers: C. Anderson (ERA: 5.69 – Road ERA: 10 – Avg. ML: 122) vs. E. Fedde (ERA: 5.45 – Home ERA: 8.84 – Avg. ML: 153)
Pick: Bet $20 WSH
Notes: The Nationals dropped their last 2 games against the Yankees but they were close ones. Philly has also lost their last two and are a dreadful 5-11 on the road this season. Neither pitcher is anyone to back so it comes down to team play and I like more of what I see from Washington than I do Philly.
SEA (206) at LAD (-228)
Pitchers: Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 4.35 – Road ERA: 3.66 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. W. Buehler (ERA: 3.15 – Home ERA: 3.3 – Avg. ML: -197)
Pick: Bet $20 SEA
Notes: Now for my batshit flyer of the day. Kikuchi has not been that bad this season and Walker Buehler is the epitome of the Dodgers’ season. Good, but not great. Seattle has a -16 run differential over their last 10 games and the Dodgers are much better. At -2. So when you are giving me +200 against a team has lost games to the Angels and Cubs the past week, I’ll take a shot at that.
CHC (164) at CLE (-180)
Pitchers: A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.62 – Road ERA: 4.05 – Avg. ML: 118) vs. S. Bieber (ERA: 2.75 – Home ERA: 2.75 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Lean CHC
KC (-132) at DET (122)
Pitchers: B. Singer (ERA: 3.5 – Road ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: 104) vs. M. Boyd (ERA: 2.35 – Home ERA: 1.78 – Avg. ML: 141)
Pick: Lean KC
OAK (117) at BOS (-127)
Pitchers: C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.72 – Road ERA: 3.18 – Avg. ML: -112) vs. N. Eovaldi (ERA: 4.46 – Home ERA: 5.27 – Avg. ML: -119)
Pick: Lean BOS
NYY (-124) at TB (114)
Pitchers: J. Montgomery (ERA: 4.88 – Road ERA: 5.7 – Avg. ML: -148) vs. L. Patino (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 111)
Pick: Lean NYY
BAL (135) at NYM (-147)
Pitchers: J. Means (ERA: 1.39 – Road ERA: 0.79 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. M. Stroman (ERA: 2.12 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: -129)
Pick: Lean NYM
TOR () at ATL ()
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 3.19 – Road ERA: 3.18 – Avg. ML: 118) vs. M. Fried (ERA: 8.44 – Home ERA: 15.75 – Avg. ML: -142)
STL (110) at MIL (-119)
Pitchers: K. Kim (ERA: 3.14 – Road ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. F. Peralta (ERA: 3.6 – Home ERA: 2.65 – Avg. ML: -124)
Pick: Lean MIL
MIN (106) at CWS (-115)
Pitchers: K. Maeda (ERA: 5.56 – Road ERA: 7.38 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. D. Cease (ERA: 2.51 – Home ERA: 1.89 – Avg. ML: -111)
Pick: Lean CWS
LAA (136) at HOU (-148)
Pitchers: S. Ohtani (ERA: 2.47 – Road ERA: 7.2 – Avg. ML: -151) vs. L. McCullers Jr. (ERA: 3.63 – Home ERA: 5.7 – Avg. ML: -118)
Pick: Lean HOU
SD () at COL ()
Pitchers: Y. Darvish (ERA: 2.33 – Road ERA: 1.29 – Avg. ML: -137) vs. Undecided
MIA (105) at ARI (-114)
Pitchers: P. Lopez (ERA: 2.37 – Road ERA: 3.71 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. M. Bumgarner (ERA: 4.33 – Home ERA: 6.85 – Avg. ML: 131)
Pick: Lean MIA