Degen Show Part (5/12/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/12/21
WAS (6.5) at ATL (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML WAS (+235)
Total: 240.5 (Lean Over – 243)
Predicted Score: WAS 121 – ATL 122
Notes: I missed on my ML of the Wizards against the Hawks the other night by 2 points. Bradley Beal is once again sidelined but its still tough for me not to take Washington. Atlanta has won 4 of 5 games though and is shooting incredibly. But I have this as a close one again and hoping the Wizards come through. $10 bet on Washington moneyline.
SAS (4.5) at BKN (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML BKN (-180)
Total: 233.5 (Lean Over – 235)
Predicted Score: SAS 117 – BKN 118
Notes: James Harden was supposed to be back for this game and is listed as a game time decision. But I am also seeing Kyrie Irving’s name on the injury report – supporting my theory that the big 3 in Brooklyn are actually just 2 guys switching outfits. San Antonio whacked the Bucks two days ago and continue to be a thorn in teams’ sides – especially on the road. Brooklyn is back from their road trip and won their last 2 games. They are 25-8 at home and should win this game. But who knows. $20 bet on Brooklyn moneyline.
BOS (-9.5) at CLE (9.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML BOS (-450)
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: BOS 121 – CLE 109
Notes: I’m slowly ripping the bandaid off for maximum pain. The Celtics lost again to Miami and seem to be locked in to a play-in game. They have to get a win today or there could seriously be calls for Brad Stevens job. Losing to OKC a few weeks ago was bad. Losing to Cleveland with playoff implications? Not so good. The Celtics have lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. Cleveland is riding an 11 game losing streak. Goddamn. $20 ML bet on the Celtics.
NOP (10.5) at DAL (-10.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 223.5 (Lean Over – 225)
Predicted Score: NOP 112 – DAL 113
Notes: Porzingis could make his return tonight and help the Mavs bounce back from their loss last night. Like Dallas, the Pelicans are coming off a loss to Memphis – a team that seems to be spiting me for hating the way they are playing right now. New Orleans have lost 3 of 5 and are 13-21 on the road this season. Dallas should get the win but I have this as a close one.
POR (3.5) at UTA (-3.5)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 234.5 (Lean Under – 234)
Predicted Score: POR 118 – UTA 116
Notes: Donovan Mitchell will miss the rest of the regular season but there is hope that he will be back for the playoffs. Without him, this team’s championship aspirations are gone. I say that and yet without him, they have managed to win. They are coming off a loss to the Warriors from a few days ago but they are back home where they are 31-4 this season. Portland is playing good ball and have won 4 in a row. But none of those wins were against very good teams. That said, Portland has played incredibly on the road this season and I have them sneaking out a win.
HOU (13.5) at LAL (-13.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 223.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: HOU 114 – LAL 119
Notes: LeBron missed the game yesterday and the Lakers snuck out a win over the Knicks. He could return tonight just to dominate a terrible team so he can feel good about himself. Christian Wood is questionable for the Rockets and they have lost 6 in a row. This should be a laugher. Just not known if LeBron will be laughing on the court or on the bench sipping wine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-180) at Ottawa Senators (161)
Pick: Bet $20 Ottawa
Notes: My metrics say Toronto wins this one but I have a hunch that the Maple Leafs will be sitting some players today. Ottawa has played better lately and they have 3 wins over Toronto this season. A bit of a flyer here. $20 bet on the Senators.
Edmonton Oilers (-116) at Montreal Canadiens (105)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Notes: Carey Price is out for the Canadiens and they have lost 4 in a row – including a 4-3 loss to Edmonton just two days ago. I still favor Montreal here but cannot bet them.
Vegas Golden Knights (-204) at San Jose Sharks (181)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: Not sure if even Panther’s jinx could stop the Knights tonight. They did lose that close one to Colorado but the Sharks are awful.
Los Angeles Kings (301) at Colorado Avalanche (-357)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: The Avalanche have won 4 of 5 and might be starting to get back to their pre-Covid metrics. Los Angeles did play them close so maybe some value on a flyer – but I am not seeing it.
Minnesota Wild (-131) at St. Louis Blues (118)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: I like the Wild here which is just another of my fades of the Blues. Line is trappish as money is hitting St. Louis and line is getting better for them.
BAL (165) at NYM (-181)
Pitchers: M. Harvey (ERA: 3.75 – Road ERA: 4.38 – Avg. ML: 139) vs. T. Walker (ERA: 2.43 – Home ERA: 1.58 – Avg. ML: -130)
Pick: Bet $20 NYM
Notes: Maybe I just wanted to talk about this one because Matt Harvey has had a bit of a resurgence and he’s coming back home to face his demons. I have been rooting for Harvey this season but won’t be on his side today. The Orioles played the Mets tough yesterday but I love Walker on the mound for New York and the Mets are playing very well at home this season.
CHC (105) at CLE (-114)
Pitchers: Z. Davies (ERA: 6.61 – Road ERA: 13.93 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. S. Hentges (ERA: 5.81 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 121)
Pick: Bet $20 CLE
Notes: The Indians edged out a win yesterday over the Cubs and they seem to be playing better baseball lately. They have a +21 run differential over their last 10 days and Zach Davies has been very hittable. Hentges is a question mark here but I like Cleveland to pull out the win.
TOR (-107) at ATL (-101)
Pitchers: H. Ryu (ERA: 3.43 – Road ERA: 4.27 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. M. Fried (ERA: 8.44 – Home ERA: 15.75 – Avg. ML: -142)
Pick: Bet $20 TOR
Notes: Fried was supposed to get the start yesterday but will go today. He’s been off this year and maybe today he rights the ship. Ryu has been decent enough – though his road ERA is a tick above his season ERA. Still, I like Toronto to grab another win today.
STL (154) at MIL (-168)
Pitchers: J. Gant (ERA: 2.16 – Road ERA: 1.93 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. B. Woodruff (ERA: 1.75 – Home ERA: 3.38 – Avg. ML: -102)
Pick: Bet $20 MIL
Notes: Yes, this is too much money to spend on the Brewers. Gant has been solid for St. Louis but I am banking on Woodruff quieting the Cardinals’ bats and the deficient Brewers’ offense to get just enough to win.
LAA (110) at HOU (-120)
Pitchers: A. Heaney (ERA: 4.27 – Road ERA: 2.96 – Avg. ML: -117) vs. J. Urquidy (ERA: 3.57 – Home ERA: 3.79 – Avg. ML: -130)
Pick: Bet $20 LAA
Notes: Not much of a payout on this one but I like the Angels’ chances of nabbing a win in this series and today could be it. Heaney has pitched very well on the road so I think he can keep Anaheim in this game.
CIN (-147) at PIT (135)
Pitchers: S. Gray (ERA: 4.15 – Road ERA: 7.5 – Avg. ML: 109) vs. T. Cahill (ERA: 6.8 – Home ERA: 5.35 – Avg. ML: 154)
Pick: Lean CIN
Notes: I like the Reds today but with almost all of the money coming in on them, the line seems to be getting better for them. So a bit trappish for my liking.
SD () at COL ()
Pitchers: Y. Darvish (ERA: 2.33 – Road ERA: 1.29 – Avg. ML: -137) vs. J. Gray (ERA: 3.2 – Home ERA: 2.14 – Avg. ML: 146)
SD () at COL ()
Pitchers: B. Snell (ERA: 4.39 – Road ERA: 8.53 – Avg. ML: -132) vs. A. Gomber (ERA: 6.49 – Home ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: 168)
PHI (-134) at WSH (124)
Pitchers: Z. Wheeler (ERA: 2.9 – Road ERA: 3.44 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. J. Lester (ERA: 5.4 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: -102)
Pick: Lean PHI
Notes: I was wrong on Washington yesterday and I like near elite Zach Wheeler and the Phillies today.
KC () at DET ()
Pitchers: D. Duffy (ERA: 1.28 – Road ERA: 0.5 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. C. Mize (ERA: 4.47 – Home ERA: 7.68 – Avg. ML: 139)
OAK () at BOS ()
Pitchers: J. Kaprielian (ERA: n/a – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a) vs. E. Rodriguez (ERA: 3.86 – Home ERA: 3.86 – Avg. ML: -195)
NYY () at TB ()
Pitchers: G. Cole (ERA: 1.63 – Road ERA: 1.38 – Avg. ML: -176) vs. C. McHugh (ERA: n/a – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a)
MIN (126) at CWS (-137)
Pitchers: J. Happ (ERA: 1.97 – Road ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: -136) vs. D. Keuchel (ERA: 3.32 – Home ERA: 3.18 – Avg. ML: -109)
Pick: Lean CWS
Notes: This one seems off to me. The line opened too low and is getting worse – but still seems low. Happ is pitching great so maybe that is part of it. Some sharp money is on Minnesota so maybe something is up here.
MIA (125) at ARI (-136)
Pitchers: T. Rogers (ERA: 1.89 – Road ERA: 2.05 – Avg. ML: 122) vs. Z. Gallen (ERA: 3.09 – Home ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: 101)
Pick: Lean MIA
Notes: Lean the Fish! Love Rogers on the mound and Zac with a C gets to play his former team. He’s doing well but his home ERA is a bit concerning.
SEA (221) at LAD (-246)
Pitchers: J. Dunn (ERA: 3.67 – Road ERA: 3.55 – Avg. ML: 131) vs. J. Urias (ERA: 3.63 – Home ERA: 5.56 – Avg. ML: -184)
Pick: Lean LAD
Notes: I took a shot with Seattle yesterday and looked good through 5. But I am not tempted today.