Degen Show Part (5/13/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/13/21
Well, if you download and listen to yesterday’s episode, I said that if the Celtics lose that I would call for Brad Stevens to be fired. And true to my word, it’s time.
After 8 years of leading this team, it’s not a good fit any more. The dude is smart. An X’s and O’s type of guy that adds value to any team. But he is not a head coach.
When I look at what Thibs has done in New York with less overall talent or how Doc has gotten more out of the Sixers than before, I can’t help but dream of an actual coach to lead the Celtics to the next level as opposed to an overhyped Laurence Frank.
Danny Ainge is not without blame too. I went over some of this the other day but he created this mess by trading for Kyrie, panicking and signing Kemba when Kyrie was leaving and not making the right moves when he felt pressured to make a trade. He mostly squandered a war-chest of picks and has depleted this team of depth.
So I think it’s time for Ainge to stick what he’s good to – negotiating trade compensation – and not picking the actual personnel to trade for. He’s got an eye for draft talent and a deficiency in free agents and trading for talent. He has a penchant for point guards with bad knees and crumbles to pressures by the Boston media to make moves when they might not be needed.
And those moves are typically bad.
So Danny, it’s time to let Stevens go or bring in an assistant coach that can re-capture this locker room. Because it’s fucking dire right now in Boston.
SAS (4.5) at NYK (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 NYK ML
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: SAS 110 – NYK 115
Notes: The Knicks return home after their West road trip. They almost nabbed two games against the LA teams but fell short against the Lakers. They return home where they are 22-11. San Antonio lost to Brooklyn last night but continue to be problematic to teams when they are on the road. Derrick Rose is questionable for New York today but I still like New York to get a win and position themselves better in the playoff seeding.
POR (5.5) at PHX (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $10 POR ML
Total: 232.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: POR 117 – PHX 116
Notes: The Blazers got another big win last night – beating the Jazz at home. They have won 4 in a row while Phoenix has dropped their last 2 and might be slumping at the wrong time. The Suns are 26-9 at home but the Blazers are a damn good road team and just the better team at the moment.
LAC (-8) at CHA (8)
Pick: Bet $20 LAC ML
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: LAC 112 – CHA 104
Notes: The Hornets were dealt the news that Gordon Hayward will not be available for the play-in tournament – meaning he won’t get to beat the Celtics. The Hornets are 18-17 at home and have lost their last 3 of 4 games – all at home. The Clippers Are coming off a big win over the Raptors on Tuesday and are 20-13 on the road. This should be another road win for them.
MIL (-9) at IND (9)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 240.5 (Lean Over – 243)
Predicted Score: MIL 121 – IND 122
Notes: The Bucks followed up their thrashing by the Spurs by coming out and beating Orlando by double digits. The Pacers have won 2 in a row after their surprise win over the Sixers on Tuesday. The Pacers are just 13-21 at home and Milwaukee has dominated them in the two games they played this season.
ORL (12.5) at ATL (-12.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: ORL 108 – ATL 117
Notes: The Hawks won another close one against the Wizards last night and have won 4 of 5 games. Orlando has lost 4 straight and not a single game has been close.
PHI (0) at MIA (0)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: PHI 116 – MIA 113
Notes: The Heat have won 4 of 5 and might be peaking at the right moment. The Sixers are coming off that loss to the Pacers that broke their win streak. Matisse Thybulle is questionable for Philly while Jimmy Butler is questionable for Miami and might not face off against his former team.
SAC (7.5) at MEM (-7.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 230.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: SAC 107 – MEM 106
Notes: The Kings have won 4 of 5 games but De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes remain out and Buddy Hield is listed as questionable. Ever since I shit on the Grizzlies last week, they have won 4 of 5 games. Their EFG% is improving but still is not great.
TOR (10.5) at CHI (-10.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: TOR 107 – CHI 109
Notes: The Bulls lost to the Nets two days ago but have played better since Lavine has returned. Siakim, Lowry and VanVleet are all out for Toronto – who have lost 4 in a row.
DEN (-6) at MIN (6)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 235.5 (Lean Over – 237)
Predicted Score: DEN 118 – MIN 119
Notes: The T-Wolves have won 2 in a row and are playing some of their best basketball right now. Denver continues to be banged up but managed a road win over Charlotte on Tuesday.
Minnesota Wild (-139) at St. Louis Blues (126)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: The Blues got the better of the Wild last night – shutting them out 4-0. Ville Husso got his first career shutout – stopping 31 shots and David Perron had 1 goal and 2 assists – adding to his stellar season. The Blues are 5-2 against the Wild this season and while I have the Wild winning, I cannot bet against the Blues.
Vancouver Canucks (155) at Calgary Flames (-175)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Notes: The Canucks continue their every other day games while the Flames have been off for 4 days – a 6-1 win over the Senators. The Flames are decent at home and Canucks are 9-15-1 on the road this year. I really like them to win here but it’s too much chalk to eat for them.
Los Angeles Kings (325) at Colorado Avalanche (-425)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: The Avalanche just smoked LA last night 6-0. It was the Avalanche’s 4th win in a row and LA’s 4th loss in a row. No reason to think they won’t do that again.
TOR (134) at ATL (-145)
Pitchers: R. Stripling (ERA: 7.42 – Road ERA: 8.57 – Avg. ML: 121) vs. C. Morton (ERA: 5.12 – Home ERA: 5.72 – Avg. ML: -130)
Pick: Bet $20 ATL
Notes: The Blue Jays are aiming for the sweep and old man Morton stands in their way. He has not had a good season and the bullpen has let him down a few times too. But the Braves should be able to get to Stripling and pull out the win today.
PHI (-109) at WSH (100)
Pitchers: Z. Eflin (ERA: 3.45 – Road ERA: 5.38 – Avg. ML: 104) vs. P. Corbin (ERA: 7.42 – Home ERA: 6.6 – Avg. ML: 110)
Pick: Bet $20 PHI
Notes: The Phillies have won the first two games in this series and Washington has lost 4 in a row. Eflin has had some rough outings on the road but Corbin has just had rough outings period. I like the Phillies for the sweep.
STL (120) at MIL (-130)
Pitchers: J. Flaherty (ERA: 2.85 – Road ERA: 4.48 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. C. Burnes (ERA: 1.55 – Home ERA: 2.63 – Avg. ML: -126)
Pick: Bet $20 MIL
Notes: I hit on Milwaukee yesterday and should just bow out. But I love this pitching match-up with two aces on the bump. Flaherty’s road ERA is a bit higher at 4.48 so maybe Milwaukee can get a few runs on him. Burnes has been sensational – though his ERA jumps from 1.55 to 2.63 at home. Great match-up but I favor the home team here today again.
SF (-151) at PIT (139)
Pitchers: A. DeSclafani (ERA: 2.41 – Road ERA: 3.43 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. W. Crowe (ERA: 3.6 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: 144)
Pick: Bet $20 SF
Notes: The Giants head East to take on the Pirates and that type of cross country trip always worries me a bit but should not matter. DeSclafani has been very good all year and the Giants have won 4 of 5 games. The Pirates have a -16 run differential over the last 10 days – though 13 of those are in 1 game. So maybe they can keep it close with a travel-tired team but ultimately I think they lose.
OAK (-102) at BOS (-106)
Pitchers: S. Manaea (ERA: 3.13 – Road ERA: 1.64 – Avg. ML: -104) vs. G. Richards (ERA: 4.6 – Home ERA: 14.52 – Avg. ML: -116)
Pick: Bet $20 BOS
Notes: Sean Manaea is having a damn good season and his road ERA is stellar at 1.64. Garrett Richards has a bloated 14.52 ERA at home. Oakland has won the first two games in this series while Boston is dealing with a 3 game losing streak. I think Boston pulls out a win today. Wish I was getting a plus line, but such is life.
KC (103) at DET (-112)
Pitchers: D. Lynch (ERA: 22.5 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 125) vs. S. Turnbull (ERA: 4.74 – Home ERA: 3.27 – Avg. ML: 141)
Pick: Lean KC
Notes: Lynch has not looked good and Detroit has dominated KC in this series. Turnbull has pitched fairly well at home and the Tigers are in a good spot to get a sweep. I tend to think KC wins and the plus line is tempting – but line movement is questionable with the money hammering KC.
MIN (120) at CWS (-130)
Pitchers: M. Pineda (ERA: 2.45 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -126) vs. L. Lynn (ERA: 1.54 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -148)
Pick: Lean CWS
Notes: Chicago has a +36 run differential over their last 10 days. Minnesota is at -16. They have lost 4 of 5 games including two brutal losses to the White Sox. Probably make that 3.
NYY (-135) at TB (125)
Pitchers: J. Taillon (ERA: 5.41 – Road ERA: 11.25 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. R. Hill (ERA: 5.21 – Home ERA: 4.71 – Avg. ML: 101)
Pick: Lean NYY
Notes: Can the Yankees sweep Tampa? Possibly. But Taillon has not been sharp and Rich Hill has been decent enough.
TEX (170) at HOU (-186)
Pitchers: M. Foltynewicz (ERA: 4.58 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. C. Javier (ERA: 2.97 – Home ERA: 2.04 – Avg. ML: -117)
Pick: Lean HOU
Notes: I love Javier and have made some money on his starts this season but this is too much to ask. The Astros should smoke the Rangers but I cannot justify the chalk for a decent team with a decent home record.
CIN (-142) at COL (130)
Pitchers: L. Castillo (ERA: 6.51 – Road ERA: 7.71 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. C. Gonzalez (ERA: 6.21 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: 125)
Pick: Lean CIN
Notes: The Reds should win this one but I do not trust Castillo right now and Gonzalez has surprisingly kept his home ERA down to 1.80.
MIA (-114) at ARI (105)
Pitchers: T. Rogers (ERA: 1.89 – Road ERA: 2.05 – Avg. ML: 122) vs. M. Kelly (ERA: 5.53 – Home ERA: 2.41 – Avg. ML: 130)
Pick: Lean MIA
Notes: The Fish have the pitching advantage but for as much hate as Panther throws at Merill Kelly, he has a 2.41 home ERA and the D-Backs have been competitive against Miami this series.
CLE () at SEA ()
Pitchers: Z. Plesac (ERA: 3.96 – Road ERA: 6.32 – Avg. ML: -106) vs. C. Flexen (ERA: 3.81 – Home ERA: 2.4 – Avg. ML: 133)