Degen Show Part (5/15/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/15/21
CHA (5.5) at NYK (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML NYK (-240)
Total: 211.5 (Lean Under – 208)
Predicted Score: CHA 103 – NYK 105
Notes: This is a meaningful game in that the Knicks could move back up to the 4 spot if they win today and tomorrow and have some losses by Atlanta and Miami. Charlotte also has something to play for. If they stay locked into the 8th spot, they will have two chances – if needed – to make the playoffs. And with a game against Washington tomorrow – a team that could take that 8th spot – this is a fairly important game. Derrick Rose is questionable for the game for New York while Charlotte will be missing Miles Bridges and of course, Gordon Hayward. The Hornets have lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5 games. New York kicked off their homestand with a win over the Spurs that pushed them to 23-11 at home. They should add another win today.
CHI (11.5) at BKN (-11.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML CHI (+525)
Total: 233.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: CHI 112 – BKN 113
Notes: The Nets can’t get to the 1 spot in the East but could drop the 3. Not sure if they care. The Bulls have nothing to play for. This one is kind of a meaningless other than it will be a tune-up with Brooklyn’s big 3. I expect them to play the first half and then sit out the second half. And maybe not even play at all based on what Milwaukee does today. Which should allow Chicago to sneak out a win.
BOS (3.5) at MIN (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML MIN (-155)
Total: 229.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: BOS 113 – MIN 118
Notes: Boston has nothing to play for in their two final games. It will be resting and avoiding further injuries. That puts the T-Wolves in very good shape to win and cover this one. Boston has lost 4 in a row and really could end the season on a fitting 6-game slide. What that does to them mentally heading into the play-in tournament? Who knows. This team is a fucking mess. Minnesota lost on Thursday but has been playing better basketball lately. They should win this one.
LAL (-6.5) at IND (6.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: LAL 111 – IND 110
Notes: The Lakers are playing to avoid the play-in game. They have two games left and have to win both and hope Portland loses tomorrow. If they end up in the play-in, their first task would be either Golden State or Memphis – neither would be a fun match-up. For the Pacers, they are also playing for something as they could move up to 8 in the East. But based on the Indiana injury report – it seems like they might not care. Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert both are on the scrap heap with Aaron Holiday, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner. Anthony Davis is listed as probable with a groin injury and LeBron has been upgraded to questionable for the game. Too many questions here.
PHX (-10.5) at SAS (10.5)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: PHX 118 – SAS 115
Notes: These two teams wrap up the season with a back-to-back series today and tomorrow. San Antonio has nothing to play for as they are locked into the 10 seed in the play-in tournament. Phoenix could still nab the 1-seed in the West if they win both games and the Jazz lose tomorrow. The Spurs are resting players so that should give the Suns a boost to win. Just don’t think they cover.
MIA (2.5) at MIL (-2.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 231.5 (Lean Over – 244)
Predicted Score: MIA 123 – MIL 121
Notes: There are some seeding implications to this one. The Bucks could move up to 2 and the Heat could move up to 4. So we will see if seeding or rest is more important.
Vancouver Canucks (168) at Edmonton Oilers (-188)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Notes: This ends the regular season right here. The Canucks have been on a breakneck pace to end the season with their games after facing a long Covid-19 layoff. Hard not to think there is some value with them ending the season strong, but Edmonton has won 4 of 5 – including 2 of 3 from Vancouver this past week.
Boston Bruins (-123) at Washington Capitals (111)
Pick: Bet $20 Boston
Notes: And this kicks off the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. These two teams ended the regular season against each other on Tuesday – with Washington nabbing a 2-1 win. In many ways, Washington has overperformed this year and Boston has underperformed.
Washington has been riding a higher-than-average PDO all season while the Bruins have had a lower-than-average PDO. Add injuries to some bad luck and here you go. However, since the trade deadline – Boston has been fairly unstoppable.
Taylor Hall has been a good fit – giving the team some scoring depth it missed. On the flip side, Washington has now dealt with some injuries befitting an older team.
This should be a good series, but I think the Bruins grab game 1.
OAK (128) at MIN (-139)
Pitchers: C. Irvin (ERA: 3.35 – Road ERA: 3.89 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. J. Berrios (ERA: 3.6 – Home ERA: 5.88 – Avg. ML: -140)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN
Notes: Minnesota has lost 5 in a row and has only 12 wins this season – making them last in the AL Central. But I am not yet ready to write them off. Sure, they got dominated by the White Sox in a series sweep and sure, the A’s stomped them yesterday. And yeah, Berrios has not been ace-like – posting a 5.88 ERA at home. But their hitting has not been terrible and it should start producing runs.
LAA (-111) at BOS (103)
Pitchers: D. Bundy (ERA: 5.06 – Road ERA: 2.84 – Avg. ML: -109) vs. M. Perez (ERA: 4.25 – Home ERA: 5.96 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Bet $20 LAA
Notes: Dylan Bundy is 0-4 this season but he does pitch much better on the road. Martin Perez is hittable and the Angels got it close to Boston yesterday due to some iffy pitching. This could be a game where the Angels’ offense comes alive and if Bundy can pitch decently, they should grab the win.
SF (-118) at PIT (109)
Pitchers: J. Cueto (ERA: 3.75 – Road ERA: 5.19 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. T. Anderson (ERA: 3.12 – Home ERA: 2.78 – Avg. ML: 142)
Pick: Bet $20 PIT
Notes: Maybe I missed on the Pirates yesterday because the Giants are a damn good team. But I like Anderson on the mound today against a Johnny Cueto who has struggled on the road so The Giants are just 9-11 on the road this season and I like the Pirates to split this 4-game series with San Francisco.
NYY (-164) at BAL (150)
Pitchers: D. German (ERA: 4.05 – Road ERA: 3.18 – Avg. ML: -134) vs. J. Lopez (ERA: 5.88 – Home ERA: 6.8 – Avg. ML: 141)
Pick: Bet $20 BAL
Notes: I barely missed on the Orioles yesterday and maybe I am chasing waterfalls but I see value in betting them today. German has been decent since his stint in the minors and Lopez is pretty terrible. But this Baltimore offense is more reliable than the boom or bust Yankees’ offense.
TEX (158) at HOU (-173)
Pitchers: D. Dunning (ERA: 3.89 – Road ERA: 5.53 – Avg. ML: 127) vs. L. Garcia (ERA: 4.38 – Home ERA: 3.56 – Avg. ML: -119)
Pick: Bet $20 TEX
Notes: Another flyer or value play here. Texas has lost 4 in a row and got straight up murdered by the Astros yesterday. But I like this plus line on them. Houston has won 4 in a row and improved to 13-9 at home this season – but Adolis Garcia is having a solid start to this season and could power Texas to a win today.
STL (118) at SD (-128)
Pitchers: A. Wainwright (ERA: 3.9 – Road ERA: 6.85 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. C. Paddack (ERA: 3.45 – Home ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: -151)
Pick: Bet $20 STL
Notes: Time for a flip flop. I hit on San Diego yesterday and now it’s on to St. Louis. Wainwright has not been good on the road but the Cardinals are a good enough road team and should manage a win in this series.
CHC (-130) at DET (120)
Pitchers: T. Williams (ERA: 5.94 – Road ERA: 11.36 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. J. Urena (ERA: 3.66 – Home ERA: 5.74 – Avg. ML: 157)
Pick: Lean CHC
WSH (-120) at ARI (111)
Pitchers: J. Ross (ERA: 3.73 – Road ERA: 1.23 – Avg. ML: 142) vs. S. Frankoff (n/a)
Pick: Lean WSH
ATL (-114) at MIL (105)
Pitchers: I. Anderson (ERA: 3.52 – Road ERA: 2.96 – Avg. ML: -127) vs. B. Anderson (ERA: 3.58 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -101)
Pick: Lean ATL
KC (167) at CWS (-183)
Pitchers: M. Minor (ERA: 5.98 – Road ERA: 4.74 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. C. Rodon (ERA: 0.58 – Home ERA: 0.6 – Avg. ML: -127)
Pick: Lean CWS
CLE (-108) at SEA (-100)
Pitchers: T. McKenzie (ERA: 5.4 – Road ERA: 5.06 – Avg. ML: 125) vs. J. Sheffield (ERA: 5.02 – Home ERA: 3.89 – Avg. ML: 141)
Pick: Lean SEA
NYM () at TB ()
Pitchers: J. Lucchesi (ERA: 13.17 – Road ERA: 13.17 – Avg. ML: -106) vs. S. McClanahan (ERA: 3.75 – Home ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 103)
MIA () at LAD ()
Pitchers: Undecided (n/a) vs. T. Bauer (ERA: 2.55 – Home ERA: 1.38 – Avg. ML: -182)
PHI () at TOR ()
Pitchers: A. Nola (ERA: 3.62 – Road ERA: 6.14 – Avg. ML: -136) vs. A. Kay (ERA: 10.14 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 109)
CIN () at COL ()
Pitchers: T. Mahle (ERA: 2.8 – Road ERA: 1.41 – Avg. ML: -120) vs. J. Chacin (n/a)