Degen Show Part (5/19/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/19/21
SAS (4) at MEM (-4)
Pick: Bet $20 MEM ML (-168)
Total: 222 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: SAS 109 – MEM 118
Notes: I hated how Memphis played for a good period of time. The last two weeks? 6-2 overall, 4-0 at home and shooting 57% EFG – up from 50% from the previous month. But we know the Spurs can be a team that sneaks out wins – particularly on the road. I just don’t like how they are shooting lately – 47% EFG on the road the past 2 weeks with a 1-4 road record and a 2-6 record overall. Memphis should win. In fact, they should cover. But continuing my exercise in moneylines. $20 ML bet on the Grizzlies.
GSW (5) at LAL (-5)
Pick: Bet $10 GSW ML (+189)
Total: 219 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: GSW 112 – LAL 111
Notes: I was not shocked when I ran my numbers and had the Warriors sneaking out a 1-point win. I was shocked to see their questionable shooting numbers on the road. But in Curry I trust. The potential MVP has been on a tear lately and in a single game he could have enough to bounce the Lakers to the other play-in game. The problem I have is … it’s the goddamn Lakers. Do we really think they will lose this one? LeBron and Davis appear to be healthy and ready for their season to begin. Fuck it. It’s worth a flyer here. $10 bet on the Warriors.
Vancouver Canucks (155) at Calgary Flames (-175)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Notes: For reals, I think this is the last regular season game of the season. I liked Vancouver yesterday and flipping to Calgary today to close out their respective seasons.
Washington Capitals (149) at Boston Bruins (-166)
Pick: Bet $20 BOS
Notes: Boston tied up the series as it now shifts to Boston. The Bruins managed to break through the Washington defense to score 4 goals. But it took OT and these two teams have looked fairly even through 2 games. One thing to look at is goaltending. If Tuuka Rask can play up to just his normal standards, this series could shift in a blink of an eye. Because Boston is getting good shots. Washington is not. Shifting back to Boston today, I like the Bruins to grab the win. Betting $20 on the Bruins.
Nashville Predators (170) at Carolina Hurricanes (-190)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Notes: Carolina dominated Nashville in game 1 and increased their incredible home record. And I have them winning this one but I hate the sharp money that is coming in on Nashville. A lean on the Hurricanes.
Winnipeg Jets (143) at Edmonton Oilers (-159)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Notes: I shockingly have the Jets winning this game. But no way I can bet on them.
St. Louis Blues (283) at Colorado Avalanche (-332)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: Colorado came out strong in game 1. Is there value on the Blues at this line? No. No there is not.
CWS (-136) at MIN (125)
Pitchers: L. Giolito (ERA: 5.11 – Road ERA: 7.22 – Avg. ML: -140) vs. M. Shoemaker (ERA: 6.76 – Home ERA: 8.91 – Avg. ML: -131)
Pick: Bet $20 CWS
Notes: I missed on Chicago yesterday but I’m back to them today. Giolito has not been himself this season – particularly on the road – but Shoemaker is hittable and the Twins offense has not proven to be consistent yet.
MIA (114) at PHI (-124)
Pitchers: T. Rogers (ERA: 1.84 – Road ERA: 1.93 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. Z. Eflin (ERA: 3.93 – Home ERA: 2.08 – Avg. ML: 100)
Pick: Bet $20 PHI
Notes: Hard to fade Rogers with his strong start to the season – but Eflin has been sensational at home and the Phillies are 14-6 at home this season while the Marlins have struggled a bit on the road. The Phillies offense took care of business yesterday and should again today.
WSH (-153) at CHC (141)
Pitchers: M. Scherzer (ERA: 2.11 – Road ERA: 2.73 – Avg. ML: -119) vs. J. Arrieta (ERA: 4.12 – Home ERA: 1.59 – Avg. ML: -102)
Pick: Bet $20 WSH
Notes: Max Scherzer has been pretty dominant after a bit of a slow start to the season. Arrieta has pitched well at home and the Cubs are 15-8 at home whole the Nats are only 7-12 on the road this year. The Cubs have won 3 in a row – including 2 straight versus the Nationals. But I like Washington’s chances today.
MIL (-173) at KC (158)
Pitchers: C. Burnes (ERA: 1.58 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -124) vs. B. Keller (ERA: 7.1 – Home ERA: 10 – Avg. ML: 124)
Pick: Bet $20 KC
Notes: Burnes has been unhittable. Keller has been the opposite of that. Maybe I missed on KC yesterday with their win but I do see value in them today too.
HOU (-109) at OAK (101)
Pitchers: Z. Greinke (ERA: 4.22 – Road ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: -133) vs. F. Montas (ERA: 5.01 – Home ERA: 6.95 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Bet $20 HOU
Notes: The A’s took down the Astros yesterday and broke Houston’s win streak. Houston puts Greinke on the mound and he has been sensational on the road. Montas has not been so great at home and Altuve should continue his hot streak against him.
DET (128) at SEA (-139)
Pitchers: T. Skubal (ERA: 6.31 – Road ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: 162) vs. L. Gilbert (ERA: 9 – Home ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Bet $20 SEA
Notes: Can the Tigers win 3 in a row and follow up a no-hitter? Nope.
COL (225) at SD (-251)
Pitchers: C. Gonzalez (ERA: 4.77 – Road ERA: 7.42 – Avg. ML: 132) vs. J. Musgrove (ERA: 3.07 – Home ERA: 3.13 – Avg. ML: -153)
Pick: Lean SD
SF (-116) at CIN (107)
Pitchers: K. Gausman (ERA: 1.86 – Road ERA: 1.08 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. W. Miley (ERA: 3.69 – Home ERA: 3.38 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Lean SF
TB () at BAL ()
Pitchers: R. Yarbrough (ERA: 6.89 – Road ERA: 5.29 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. J. Means (ERA: 1.23 – Home ERA: 3.24 – Avg. ML: 114)
NYM () at ATL ()
Pitchers: D. Peterson (ERA: 5 – Road ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: -100) vs. C. Morton (ERA: 5.27 – Home ERA: 5.86 – Avg. ML: -129)
BOS (105) at TOR (-114)
Pitchers: G. Richards (ERA: 3.93 – Road ERA: 2.48 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. R. Stripling (ERA: 6.64 – Home ERA: 6.87 – Avg. ML: 121)
Pick: Lean TOR
PIT (188) at STL (-207)
Pitchers: T. Cahill (ERA: 6.05 – Road ERA: 7.58 – Avg. ML: 149) vs. J. Flaherty (ERA: 2.48 – Home ERA: 0.95 – Avg. ML: -118)
Pick: Lean STL
NYY () at TEX ()
Pitchers: C. Kluber (ERA: 3.63 – Road ERA: 5.41 – Avg. ML: -148) vs. Undecided
CLE () at LAA ()
Pitchers: A. Civale (ERA: 3.54 – Road ERA: 4.43 – Avg. ML: -108) vs. S. Ohtani (ERA: 2.14 – Home ERA: 0.68 – Avg. ML: -117)
ARI () at LAD ()
Pitchers: R. Smith (ERA: 7.5 – Road ERA: 5 – Avg. ML: 167) vs. C. Kershaw (ERA: 3.23 – Home ERA: 2.77 – Avg. ML: -163)