Degen Show (5/2/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/2/22
PHI (7.5) at MIA (-7.5)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 208.5 (Lean Over – 210)
Predicted Score: PHI 104 – MIA 106
Notes: The most recent news is that Joel Embiid should be back for game 3 when the series shifts back to Philly.
That’s great news for the Sixers and makes the series a lot harder for Miami.
But he won’t be there today so Jimmy James Harden will need to do what he can to keep the team competitive without him.
The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry – who is still out with a hamstring injury. Tyler Herro is also questionable for today.
Miami is dealing with some other injuries that don’t seem bad now, but could be terrible down the road.
The most concerning is Jimmy Butler’s knee. He has been dealing with it for a bit and if it ends up being a major problem, this team will be in trouble.
Just ask the bubble team that made it to the Finals only to see Butler get injured.
But for this game, he should play and the Heat should win.
I just don’t like them covering.
DAL (6) at PHX (-6)
Pick: Bet $10 DAL +6
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 215)
Predicted Score: DAL 108 – PHX 107
Notes: The Mavs got through the Jazz despite not having Luka for a few games.
Well, he’s healthy now and looking forward to starting his playoff legacy.
Getting through round 1 was the first start but getting his team to the Conference Finals would be amazing.
I just don’t think this Mavs team has the depth that’s needed to do it.
Spencer Dinwiddie became a great addition and trading away the Unicorn distraction also helped.
After that, it really is a collection of role players that contribute around Luka but can’t take over if he’s neutralized.
The Suns got fined in game 6 for not announcing Devin Booker’s availability for the game.
As a sports better, sure, its’ annoying for sure.
But as someone who appreciates Belichickian gamesmanship, I thought it was pretty fucking funny.
Hard to argue that the Suns win this one and probably win this series but I think Luka is good enough to keep this close.
I am finding it hard to bet moneylines in the playoffs. I possibly could bet Dallas here but I just don’t think they get the win.
So a $10 bet on the Mavs with the points.
Tampa Bay Lightning (106) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-128)
Pick: Bet $10 Toronto
Notes: It’s funny but the Tampa Bay Lightning caused me to make changes to my hockey model this offseason.
This model didn’t perform as well as the previous one in regards to profit – but at least it didn’t tell me the Lightning was a bottom 10 team when they were in fact, Stanley Cup winners.
In my defense, they did get their best player back last year right when the playoffs started.
No such luck for them this year.
Still, this is a dangerous team and they do have a chance to upset the Maple Leafs in the opening round.
Toronto is an odd team. They either look unbeatable or they look very beatable.
This team has some playoff demons to get over and I while I’m not sold on them winning this series, I like them in game 1.
$10 bet on the Maple Leafs.
Boston Bruins (105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-126)
Pick: Lean Boston
St. Louis Blues (118) at Minnesota Wild (-142)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings (172) at Edmonton Oilers (-210)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
ARI (130) at MIA (-154)
Pick: Bet $10 MIA
SEA (110) at HOU (-130)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
KC (142) at STL (-168)
Pick: Lean STL
LAA (108) at CWS (-126)
Pick: Lean CWS
MIN (-158) at BAL (134)
Pick: Lean MIN
NYY (-124) at TOR (106)
Pick: Lean TOR
ATL (110) at NYM (-130)
Pick: Lean NYM
TB (-174) at OAK (146)
Pick: Lean TB