Degen Show Part (5/22/21)
Powered by RedCircle
Keep the Lights On Around Here!
The Degens! App
Grab the Degens App hangout, shoot the breeze and get even more content.
Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/22/21
MIA (4.5) at MIL (-4.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 227 (Lean Over – 241)
Predicted Score: MIA 120 – MIL 121
Notes: Milwaukee did not have a dominating regular season. And maybe like the good Catholic girl, they were keeping themselves pure for the marriage that is a playoff run. But things are about to get filthy. Like Arch Stanton levels of filthy. Because the defending Eastern Conference champs are looking to bounce the Bucks out of the playoffs and make Giannis once again question signing longterm with the Bucks. The Heat closed out the season as winners of 4 of 5. That loss? A beatdown by the Bucks. But Miami improved their play on the road this year and while they struggles earlier in the season with shooting – they have reversed course and been a damn good shooting team the past month or so. I like them to possibly pull out a win today and possibly a series win too. Leaning Miami.
DAL (5.5) at LAC (-5.5)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: DAL 111 – LAC 112
Notes: Rumors are that the Clippers purposely dropped to the 3rd spot to avoid any chance of dealing with the Lakers in the first round. True or not, something like that could give Luka and crew some extra motivation out there. Dallas had a good year – despite the fragile nature of Kristaps Porzingis – and played well on the road. Can they beat LA in this series? I don’t think so – but they have enough pieces to keep games close. And some mental lapses by PG13 could be the downfall for the Clippers. But I like Kawhi’s low profile this season and think he’s ready to pounce. Clippers should win but leaning Dallas with the points.
BOS (8) at BKN (-8)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 229.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: BOS 107 – BKN 114
Notes: Kyrie has a chance to knock his former team out of the playoffs and make the Boston fandom even more salty than we already are. And why are we salty? Well, there’s no disagreement from our side that Kyrie is a generational talent. I mean, a Boston fan called into the radio once to declare that. Our issue is not with his play on the court – it’s that he didn’t really play on the court for us. His seasons were cut down by injuries and mental breaks. And that is what Brooklyn needs to worry about. Maybe he got that out of his system already. But it still should be a concern. As should the overall health of Durant and Harden. If all three of these guys can stay on the court, this could be a series sweep. I’m just not sure that will happen. A lean on Boston here.
POR (1) at DEN (-1)
Pick: Bet $10 ML POR (102)
Total: 227.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: POR 118 – DEN 113
Notes: These two teams closed out the regular season and in many ways, kicked off the playoffs. Portland needed to win that game to avoid dropping to the play-in game tournament. So maybe Denver took it easy that night to avoid hosting the Lakers in an opening round series. My issue here is that I think Denver matches up better with LA than they do with Portland. Without Murray on this court, I don’t know if we will see the Denver team from the 2019 playoffs that managed to push the Blazers to 7 games. When healthy, Damian Lillard and crew are one of the most dangerous teams on the court. And I think the nab game 1 here. $10 moneyline bet on the Blazers.
Florida Panthers (126) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-139)
Pick: Bet $20 Florida
Notes: The Panthers were able to nab game 3 of this series now the question is if they can tie this series up. You know what my answer is if you’ve listened to any episode I have mentioned Tampa Bay in. That said, Florida was down in game 3 and had to fight their way back. They need to jump out to a lead today and keep that lead – as opposed to going up 2-0 and giving up 5 goals in the second period. No surprise here but despite being down 2-1 in the series, the advanced metrics favor Florida.
And maybe that’s a reason to say these metrics are bullshit – but a whole season of following shot quality and possession quality has me a believer that they matter. And Florida’s expected goal rate is 7.2 compared to Tampa’s 4.9. Florida is also creating more high danger shots than Tampa – meaning if Tampa’s goalies are not playing at their best, this team is in danger of giving up a ton of goals.
The main issue in this series that has favored Tampa is penalties. Florida has spent too much time in the penalty box and the Lightning have taken advantage. Of their 13 goals in this series, 8 have come when they had a power play opportunity.
Florida stays out of the penalty box. They win this series. And I like them to win today. $20 bet on the Panthers.
Pittsburgh Penguins (103) at New York Islanders (-113)
Pick: Bet $20 New York
Notes: I think I made the comment that while the Islanders are a very good home team, so is Pittsburgh. And if New York could nab one in Pittsburgh, then the Penguins could nab one in New York. That’s what happened in game 3.
This series has been a very close one so far – which should terrify the Penguins. Because the Islanders have not played a single good game in this series so far and still have managed to make the Penguins sweat. The main issue, funny enough, has been defense and goaltending. If they play to their strengths – the series is over. I like them to get the win today. $20 bet on the Islanders.
Montreal Canadiens (161) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-180)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Notes: Montreal stunned Toronto in game 1 and now its time for the Maple Leafs to show if they are for real or not. I liked them this season – but I never loved them. As good as they played, I always thought better of other teams. Heading into the season, I thought Montreal had potential. Maybe they will finally show that by beating the Maple Leafs in this series.
It pretty much started off with Maple Leaf’s captain John Tavares being knocked out of the game – and possibly series if the cannot get through concussion protocols. Even worse is that we talk about playoff type players. Like Playoff Rondo. Well, Playoff Carey Price scares me.
I like Toronto to get the win today but at this line, maybe the play is Montreal.
Vegas Golden Knights (-120) at Minnesota Wild (109)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: Vegas got the first game in Minnesota and now they have gotten their home ice advantage back. Even better, they proved that the Wild are mortal at home. The Golden Knights are the better team here. Make no doubt about that. And the Minnesota offense is doing a lot but resulting in a little.
That’s because of some amazing goaltending by the Golden Knights. And that could be the difference in this series. Getting great shots is one thing. Getting them past a great goalie is another. So yeah, I’ve ranted about advanced metrics and how much I believe in shot quality and high danger opportunities. But even with that, a hot goalie will deal with it all and shut you down.
A lean on Vegas.
CWS (177) at NYY (-194)
Pitchers: D. Cease (ERA: 2.54 – Road ERA: 3.13 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. G. Cole (ERA: 2.05 – Home ERA: 1.73 – Avg. ML: -199)
Pick: Bet $20 CWS
BAL (144) at WSH (-157)
Pitchers: B. Zimmermann (ERA: 5.66 – Road ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. J. Lester (ERA: 5.03 – Home ERA: 3.27 – Avg. ML: 123)
Pick: Bet $20 BAL
MIN (150) at CLE (-163)
Pitchers: K. Maeda (ERA: 4.87 – Road ERA: 5.53 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. S. Bieber (ERA: 3.03 – Home ERA: 2.8 – Avg. ML: -144)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN
ARI (-113) at COL (105)
Pitchers: M. Bumgarner (ERA: 3.63 – Road ERA: 3.46 – Avg. ML: 131) vs. A. Senzatela (ERA: 5.33 – Home ERA: 4.49 – Avg. ML: 179)
Pick: Lean ARI
HOU (-190) at TEX (173)
Pitchers: L. McCullers Jr. (ERA: 2.73 – Road ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. J. Lyles (ERA: 6.13 – Home ERA: 8.83 – Avg. ML: 170)
Pick: Lean TEX
MIL (126) at CIN (-136)
Pitchers: B. Anderson (ERA: 4.64 – Road ERA: 5.5 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. S. Gray (ERA: 4.08 – Home ERA: 2.8 – Avg. ML: -104)
Pick: Lean MIL
PIT () at ATL ()
Pitchers: M. Keller (ERA: 7.43 – Road ERA: 3.41 – Avg. ML: 149) vs. B. Wilson (ERA: 5.5 – Home ERA: 6.23 – Avg. ML: 103)
NYM () at MIA ()
Pitchers: Undecided (n/a) vs. P. Lopez (ERA: 3.53 – Home ERA: 1.05 – Avg. ML: 102)
DET (140) at KC (-152)
Pitchers: M. Boyd (ERA: 2.52 – Road ERA: 3.15 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. B. Singer (ERA: 4.08 – Home ERA: 4.2 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Lean DET
LAD () at SF ()
Pitchers: W. Buehler (ERA: 2.99 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: -195) vs. L. Webb (ERA: 4.26 – Home ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: -108)
CHC (-110) at STL (102)
Pitchers: A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.71 – Road ERA: 4.21 – Avg. ML: 119) vs. M. Mikolas (n/a)
Pick: Lean CHC
BOS (-118) at PHI (109)
Pitchers: N. Eovaldi (ERA: 4.38 – Road ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. S. Howard (n/a)
Pick: Lean PHI
TB (100) at TOR (-119)
Pitchers: S. McClanahan (ERA: 4.74 – Road ERA: 3.38 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. R. Ray (ERA: 3.42 – Home ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: 117)
Pick: Lean TOR
SEA () at SD ()
Pitchers: J. Sheffield (ERA: 4.7 – Road ERA: 6.15 – Avg. ML: 135) vs. R. Weathers (ERA: 1.65 – Home ERA: 2.65 – Avg. ML: -101)
OAK () at LAA ()
Pitchers: C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.9 – Road ERA: 3.72 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. P. Sandoval (ERA: 4.5 – Home ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: -137)