Degen Show Part (5/24/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/24/21
MIA (4.5) at MIL (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 MIL ML (-182)
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 239)
Predicted Score: MIA 119 – MIL 120
Notes: It took a game winner in OT for the Bucks to escape game 1 with a win. I mentioned before that game that Miami would be a tough matchup for the Bucks and through 1 game – which is enough of a sample, right? – I can say that I am right. So backing Miami today would not be a bad play. It’s just not my play.
I like the Bucks to nab a win today. And as I ran my numbers, you can find some value in the moneyline on Milwaukee compared to the spread. It’s not significant – but something I do like to jump on when it happens. $10 ML bet on the Bucks.
POR (1.5) at DEN (-1.5)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 227 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: POR 117 – DEN 112
Notes: I hit Portland on the moneyline in game 1 and was tempted to jump on them again. But I have a feeling that Denver will adjust after playing right into the Blazers’ gameplan. That gameplan was to allow Jokic to score – which he did with 34 points – but limit his passing lanes – which they did, limiting him to 1 assist in game 1.
Lillard, McCollum and Anthony had good games and the Blazers shot 47.5% from 3-point land while the Nuggets shot only 30.5% from 3. That should balance back a bit. I still have Portland winning but I’m just not confident in it. Leaning the Blazers.
New York Islanders (124) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-137)
Pick: Lean New York
Notes: The Islanders split their home games so this series is tied up and heading back to Pittsburgh today. What the Penguins need to be worried about heading into this game is the health of Islanders goalie – Semyon Varlamov – who seems to be 100% read after a great game 4. If he plays up to his regular season results, this series could be done soon.
Mostly because the Islanders have neutralized Sidney Crosby and New York’s offense has looked much better than Pittsburgh’s has. I like the Islanders to win today but it’s too close for me to bet on.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-163) at Montreal Canadiens (146)
Pick: Bet $20 Toronto
Notes: After taking two stunning losses in game 1 – losing their captain and then the game – the Maple Leafs bounced back in a big way in game 2. And that could be the series now. Auston Matthews led the way for Toronto in game 2 and if he’s not stopped, this series will continue to be ugly for Montreal.
The Canadiens continue to try to bully the Leafs – but this time they ended up in the penalty box. And the Leafs took advantage. I like them to get a win today and possibly lead this a gentleman’s sweep. $20 bet on Toronto.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) at Florida Panthers (-101)
Pick: Bet $20 Florida
Notes: OK, I am going to do something here because I am stubborn. I am betting Florida. Down with the ship. So here is the deal. The Panther’s metrics are better than Tampa’s in this series except in two areas. 1) goaltending – Florida’s goalies are a mess right now. 2) wins – yeah, all of those fancy metrics mean shit right now since they are down in the series 3-1. Watching the Lightning play this series makes me wonder if they pulled a rope-a-dope.
Took it easy in the regular season to be fresh and ready for the post-season. Because Lightning teams of the past took the regular season too hard and faded in the playoffs. Maybe it’s the opposite this time. Still, I cannot give up on the Panthers. Until after tonight more than likely. $20 bet on Florida.
Edmonton Oilers (-115) at Winnipeg Jets (102)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Notes: Can the Jets sweep the Oilers? Yeah, probably. After being down 4-1 in the 3rd period of game 3, you would be expecting this series to be 2-1 heading to game 4. Well, that’s not what happened. And now the Oilers are on the brink of elimination.
The Jets have a great goalie and when push comes to shove, he makes the stops to mask several of Winnipeg’s issues. I like them again today. But I cannot bet them.
Minnesota Wild (158) at Vegas Golden Knights (-177)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: Sorry Wild. It was fun while it lasted. But the Knights are about to knock you out of the playoffs.
TB (-110) at TOR (102)
Pitchers: R. Yarbrough (ERA: 6.38 – Road ERA: 5 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. R. Stripling (ERA: 7.83 – Home ERA: 8.83 – Avg. ML: 118)
Pick: Bet $20 TB
PHI (113) at MIA (-123)
Pitchers: Z. Eflin (ERA: 3.83 – Road ERA: 5.9 – Avg. ML: -100) vs. T. Rogers (ERA: 1.76 – Home ERA: 1.69 – Avg. ML: 111)
Pick: Lean MIA
COL (126) at NYM (-137)
Pitchers: A. Gomber (ERA: 5.07 – Road ERA: 6.53 – Avg. ML: 167) vs. D. Peterson (ERA: 5.16 – Home ERA: 4.09 – Avg. ML: 106)
Pick: Bet $20 NYM
CLE (114) at DET (-124)
Pitchers: S. Hentges (ERA: 8.47 – Road ERA: 16.74 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. S. Turnbull (ERA: 2.9 – Home ERA: 2.63 – Avg. ML: 127)
Pick: Lean DET
SD (-101) at MIL (-107)
Pitchers: B. Snell (ERA: 3.95 – Road ERA: 7.33 – Avg. ML: -140) vs. B. Woodruff (ERA: 1.62 – Home ERA: 2.72 – Avg. ML: -105)
Pick: Lean SD
BAL (-105) at MIN (-103)
Pitchers: J. Means (ERA: 1.72 – Road ERA: 0.67 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. M. Shoemaker (ERA: 6.18 – Home ERA: 7.5 – Avg. ML: -122)
Pick: Lean BAL
STL (158) at CWS (-173)
Pitchers: K. Kim (ERA: 2.83 – Road ERA: 4.02 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. L. Lynn (ERA: 1.57 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: -139)
Pick: Lean CWS
SEA (148) at OAK (-161)
Pitchers: Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 4.38 – Road ERA: 3.86 – Avg. ML: 119) vs. F. Montas (ERA: 4.86 – Home ERA: 6.36 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Bet $20 OAK